Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his stump at Gobbler’s Knob this morning and did not see his shadow — thus predicting an early spring.

The annual Feb. 2 ritual has been taking place about 85 miles northeast of Pittsburgh since the late 19th century. It “has roots in ‘ancient, undoubtedly prehistoric, weather lore,'” according to the Associated Press.

This year’s ceremony can be viewed below.

While Wikipedia argues that Groundhog Day is “based upon a communal light-hearted suspension of disbelief,” and Fox Weather pegs Punxy Phil’s predictive accuracy at just 39%, maybe there’s something to be said for the staying power of a weather-predicting rodent — even one that’s wrong more often than right.

The national media and tens of thousands of groundhog faithful still dutifully converge on Punxsutawney every year. What else in American life that dates back to the 1800s has that kind of draw today, in 2024? Even the World Series, contested since 1903, is a late comer by comparison.

So this morning, on Groundhog Day, we’re asking our well-educated, worldly Arlington readers: despite what the so-called experts might say, do you believe in the groundhog? Maybe just a little?

The New Hampshire primary is today, and Virginia’s presidential primary is six weeks away.

After former president Donald Trump’s record-setting win at the Iowa caucuses, all eyes are on New Hampshire to see if his remaining major opponent, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, can make it a competitive race.

While Trump consolidates support within the party, the Never-Trump faction of the GOP is rallying around Haley. And they might also be secretly hoping to get some help from across the aisle.

Virginia is among a number of states that hold an open primary, meaning that Democrats can vote in the Republican party and vice-versa.

“Virginia is an open primary state meaning that voters do not register by political party,” notes the Arlington County elections website. “Any registered voter is eligible to vote in any primary election. If both the Democratic and Republican parties hold primaries on the same day, voters must choose which party ballot they wish to vote, per Virginia Code § 24.2-530.”

The Democratic race, meanwhile, remains moribund, with challengers to President Biden mostly polling in the single-digits. A non-competitive Democratic race may — in theory, at least — drive a few more voters over to the more dynamic GOP primary, particularly Dems dead set against another Trump presidency.

So whether you vote on Super Tuesday, March 5, or vote early — in-person early voting started Jan. 19 in Arlington and ballot drop boxes opened yesterday — this morning we’re wondering which primary are you planning on voting in?

In case you haven’t heard already, we may be getting snow this weekend.

There’s broad agreement among weather forecasters that a storm is on tap for Saturday into Sunday, though the big debate is how much of the precipitation will fall as snow in the D.C. area. As is often the case, our area is around the predicted transition from snow to rain.

More, below, from the Capital Weather Gang, which has yet to get too excited about the possibility of significant snowfall:

Rain and snow are likely to fall in the D.C. region this weekend, as a significant winter storm impacts much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In the D.C. area, precipitation could go back and forth from rain to snow during the storm, perhaps mixing with a little sleet. How much snow, and whether it is cold enough for it to accumulate, depends on the exact track of the storm, which is still uncertain.

The storm has the potential to produce anything from mostly rain to shovelable snow across the area, although as of now the odds lean toward more rain than snow. The best chance for accumulating snow is north and west of the District, where temperatures will be the coldest, with decreasing chances to the south and east.

Of course, with a slight change in the track of the storm, we could end up with snowman-worthy accumulation. But the probability of that happening at this point is well below 50%.

Big snowstorm coming?

Perhaps, but not necessarily for the I-95 corridor.

We know:
– there will be a storm off the East Coast
– it will have moisture
– cold air may be iffy/in shorter supply

Basically a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of big snows NYC/PHL/BWI/DCA. pic.twitter.com/tJUYBuKs13

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) January 1, 2024

Serious uncertainty remains with this weekends storm on track and totals. Areas to the west of the Blue Ridge will likely see snowfall regardless the track of this system.

Here locally, details become difficult. The rain/snow line could cause significant differences in totals.… pic.twitter.com/FjwRXPV7pr

— Washingtonian Weather Geeks (@WashingtonianWx) January 2, 2024

Given the forecast, and perhaps keeping in mind our area’s propensity for predicted snow storms turning out to be duds, what is your snowfall prediction at this point?

A new year is almost upon us, and it begs the question — will 2024 be a better year than 2023?

Economically, it’s looking like a solid maybe. For the state of the nation during a presidential election — also highly questionable.

But what sort of vibes are you getting, when it comes to how the year will play out for you and yours, personally? Are you optimistic about a better year, or do you think things might take a turn for the worse?

As we have been reporting, local public access station Arlington Independent Media is at a crossroads as it vies for funding from Arlington County and local cable providers.

Despite some internal strife, a bigger force is driving the existential questions around AIM: the ongoing loss of cable TV subscribers known as cord cutting.

Cable providers are losing some 10% of video customers every year, as consumers rely instead on some combination of broadcast TV and streaming. For some, cutting the cord is all about saving on those steep cable bills, while for others it’s simply a matter of not wanting to watch commercial-laden cable channels anymore.

Whatever the case, cord cutting will have notable impacts on everything from cable access channels to local TV news to professional sports teams — which derive significant revenue from cable channels — in the coming years.

Given that, we’re wondering how many readers have decided to cut the cord so far.

The Washington Capitals and Wizards are planning to move to Alexandria’s Potomac Yard neighborhood.

The announcement was made this morning in tents set up next to the Potomac Yard Metro entrance, where a new sports arena and entertainment complex is planned — about a half mile from the Arlington border.

More from our sister site ALXnow:

The project will be adjacent to the Virginia Tech Innovation Campus in the Alexandria portion of National Landing — the collective term for Potomac Yard, Crystal City and Pentagon City.

“After many years of dreaming, many years of discussion, I’m pleased to announce that right here, in Alexandria’s Potomac Yard, we have a plan to unleash a brighter, more extraordinary future,” said [Virginia Gov. Glenn] Youngkin. “We will build a spectacular $2 billion dollar sports and entertainment district.”

[Team owner Ted] Leonsis said the move to Virginia is a “transformative step forward.”

“I have always believed there is a higher calling in sports — to unify our community, build a lasting legacy over multiple generations, and lift all our neighbors towards a shared sense of prosperity,” Leonsis said. “Today, we deepen that commitment as we enter a phase of rapid expansion in service to our fans, employees, and partners.”

Leonsis said starting a new stadium with a sense of tabula rasa was a big part of Potomac Yard’s appeal.

“When I saw 70 acres and the ability to start with a clean slate… to build a digital first experience, it really is a very romantic but also pragmatic vision that we can’t do anywhere else,” Leonsis said. “I got goosebumps again when I came here a week ago and looked at all of the expansion capabilities.”

As part of the deal, the construction and ownership of the arena would be overseen by a new Virginia stadium authority, and the arena would be leased to Monumental.

“Subject to legislative approval by the Virginia General Assembly, the Entertainment District will break ground in 2025 and open in late 2028,” said a press release from the governor’s office.

ARLnow is working to learn more about what this will mean for Arlington, from plans for changes to Route 1 to the Capitals practice facility moving from the Iceplex in Ballston.

In the meantime, we were wondering whether the move from Chinatown in D.C. to Potomac Yard will drive more game day attendance from Arlington residents. Do you think you will go to more games at an Alexandria facility, compared to your current attendance at Capital One Arena?

Last week ARLnow received an interesting reader email.

The writer’s suggestion: we should beautify Arlington County by encouraging those with inflatable holiday decorations to keep them inflated at all times, rather than leaving them deflated during the day, as is often the case.

The email:

Suggest a public service announcement to make Arlington more beautiful over the holidays.

While many people keep their inflatable holiday decorations full during the day, several do not and for some reason choose only to fill them at night – thus resulting is what looks like piles of colored plastic bags laying on front yards.

Perhaps a positive message like:

“Thank you Arlingtonians for keeping your inflatable yard decorations full during the day, and not just at night – helping to keep Arlington looking good through the holidays”

Thanks

Now, some may see inflatables as a scourge, a tacky way for busy households to decorate for the holidays with minimal effort and storage space required. And others might have concerns about the electricity use of the fan-driven decorations.

But those who appreciate holiday decor in any form may find themselves agreeing with the letter writer.

What do you think?

Chances are you know someone who’s sick right now — if you’re not sick yourself.

We’re in the thick of cold and flu season, and each is on the rise alongside Covid and RSV, though the latter might be peaking. In at least one local drug store, meanwhile, ARLnow noted that Kleenex and Pedialyte seemed to be in short supply.

This morning, in light of the rising levels of illness, we’re wondering about vaccinations. Are you up-to-date on the vaxes for this year’s cold, flu and Covid season? Or are you just letting things play out and hoping for the best?

It’s been a banner year so far for online holiday shopping.

Fresh records for online shopping were set on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. There’s some question, however, as to whether the online holiday shopping growth — in total up 7.8% from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, according to Adobe — is a good sign or bad sign for brick-and-mortar merchants.

From Axios:

E-commerce sales don’t tell the whole story.

The segment makes up less than 16% of U.S. retail sales.

The National Retail Federation separately reported on Tuesday that more than 200 million people shopped online and in-person during the five day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday — exceeding last year’s record number of 196 million. […]

Thanksgiving fell early this year, which may have boosted numbers. Same goes for “favorable” weather, according to NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.

On the other hand, overall traffic to in-person retail locations was down slightly. From Reuters:

Online shoppers rose 3.1% to 134.2 million during the Thanksgiving weekend, making up for a slight dip in the number of customers who visited brick-and-mortar stores. The period saw about 121.4 million in-store shoppers, down from 122.7 million in 2022, according to the retail body.

Today we’re wondering how these numbers translate locally. Are Arlingtonians shifting more of their holiday spending online? Or are they still supporting local shops?

We have two polls, below, to try to gauge the state of local retail.

This week marks the five-year anniversary of Amazon’s decision to locate its second headquarters in Arlington.

The initial plan had HQ2 split between Arlington and New York City, but a few months later NYC was out and Arlington was the sole destination for the tech and retail giant.

In the five years since, Amazon has completed the first phase of its planned office complex and hired about 8,000 Arlington-based employees out of the 25,000 it says will eventually work here. Disappointing fans of the proposed “Helix” tower, however, it has delayed construction on the second phase of HQ2.

Arlington, and the dozens of cities that competed for HQ2, had visions of emerging as another Silicon Valley with the addition of a large Amazon presence. While Amazon certainly has provided a boost to the local tech scene, it’s hard to argue that Arlington is anywhere close to rivaling the Bay Area.

HQ2 is now a gleaming presence in Arlington, and adjacent Metropolitan Park has gotten a big upgrade from its former days as a defacto dog bathroom, but Pentagon City lacks the throngs of security-badged employees that one might expect around a major tech headquarters.

Meanwhile, fears of skyrocketing housing prices have only partially come to fruition. After the HQ2 announcement Arlington real estate prices rose disproportionately compared to the rest of the region, the Washington Business Journal reported, but that has since reversed, calling into question the true impact.

Housing prices and tech employment may be objective ways to measure the local HQ2 impact, but today we’re running a poll that takes a different approach: vibes.

Given your local knowledge, how do you assess the Amazon-driven changes in Arlington? How much of an impact do you think HQ2 has actually had?

Virginia residents have been receiving state tax rebates over the past week or so.

The rebates for those who paid taxes in 2022 — $200 for individual filers, $400 for joint filers — were approved by the Virginia General Assembly in a compromise budget and signed into law by Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Putting aside the eyebrows raised by the checks going out during election week, we were wondering what our readers in Arlington are planning to do with their rebate.

Are you planning to go right out and spend it, invest it for the long term, or something in between?