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Morning Notes

by ARLnow.com — December 27, 2012 at 10:20 am 2,223 36 Comments

Snow tires by BrianMKA

Chamber Wants State Control of Energy Plan — One of the Arlington Chamber of Commerce’s legislative goals this year is to have the state take control of energy efficiency and green building standards. The Chamber’s call for statewide objectives and policies comes as Arlington is in the latter stages of developing its own Community Energy Plan. “The Chamber does not support the delegation of authority to localities to establish green-building codes and requirements on a locality-by-locality basis,” the group wrote. [Sun Gazette]

VSP Responds to Crashes During Storm — Yesterday’s snow, ice and rain storm resulted in dozens of crashes on Northern Virginia highways. Virginia State Police’s Fairfax division (which includes Arlington) responded to 69 crashes, 46 disabled vehicles and a total of 328 calls for service yesterday, according to VSP spokeswoman Corinne Geller. Statewide, VSP responded to 686 crashes, including one fatal wreck in Campbell County, near Lynchburg.

Population Decline Coming?Updated at 12:55 p.m. — A projection by researchers at the University of Virginia suggests that Arlington’s population will, against all conventional wisdom, actually decline in coming years. In the 2010 census Arlington had a population of 207,627; by 2040, the projection suggest the population will shrink to 197,065. The researchers cautioned against putting too much faith in the Arlington numbers. As a whole, Virginia is projected to grow, with some 2 million additional residents statewide by 2040. Arlington’s planning division projects a population of 252,400 in 2040. [Sun Gazette]

  • JimPB

    Pix nicely captures in the tire tracks safe driving in the snow and ice.

    The other side: a body repair shop with lines of cars awaiting repair work.

  • JimPB

    Future ARLCO population projection.

    What’s the projection for increased residences — homes and apartments? Without an unlikely substantial increase, the adult population would be constrained.

    What’s the projection for children? We currently have a wave entering and in school.
    Will the parents stay in place after their children are grown, creating a decade or two dip before another turn over from seniors to younger adults starting and with young families?

    • Taylor

      Yes, it would be interesting to see if the UVa researchers did a projection on housing units as well.

      I noticed too that Arlington’s population projection for 2020 is anticipated to decline as well (to 206,896) – which is only 7 years away. The rest of Northern Va. is projected to continue increasing in population every decade.

      I suppose the anticipated decline in Arlington population may be due to continued gentrification (large immigrant families being replaced by smaller, wealthier households), and/or a coming decline in “doubling up” such as group homes, roommates, etc. I know that long-term population projections are always sketchy, but it would be very interesting to see a detailed explanation for the projections.

      • Pentagonian

        The UVA researchers did mention a potential error rate (as high as 36%) in out-year projections.

        I wonder how they accounted for the redevelopment of Crystal City/Pentagon City over the next 20-30 years. Hard to imagine the population decreasing over the long term. And it’s hard to imagine the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor getting any smaller/less dense.

      • fuzzy

        I was going to suggest the gentrification/10 to a Hispanic household explanation, but I thought it sounded too racist (thanks Taylor). However, that’s the only explanation I can think of given the boom in new condos/apartment construction that’s been going on and is expected to continue for the next few years.

        • BBMS

          The African-American and Hispanic populations in Arlington decreased from the last census.

  • DeportEmAll

    Reasons for projected decline in Arlington population? Could be as Arlington housing costs continue to rise relative to most of the Metro area it will drive out more and more illegals/blue collar families?

  • novasteve

    Well, given you’ll have to be very very wealthy or be on section 8, it does impact how many people can live in Arlington…. Basically the middle class will be absent. You’ll have the rich and the poor.

  • novasteve

    I know it’s hard for the sociopaths that come to the DC area, but if it’s raining, or snowing, or sleeting out, it affects your driving. You need to slow down, and when you tailgate, you’re more likely to rearend. I know you are sociopathetically self absorbed and think the laws of physics don’t apply to you, but they actually do. The weather impacts you too.If you aren’t prepared to deal with reality, then go back to the craphole you fled from and subject those people to your selfishness and sociopathy.

    • Tabs

      “then go back to the craphole you fled from”

      ArlNow, this is hate speech. Are you serious about what you wrote in the Merry Christmas message? Then ban this hatemonger.

      • John Fontain

        Hate speech against whom? The sociopathetically self-absorbed?

        • Tabs

          Oh, sure, his comment wasn’t hate speech against immigrants at alllll. Nooo.

          • 1RLI

            Actually, my first thought on reading Steve’s post was that he was commenting on white middle-class policy wonks.

          • CrystalMikey

            how so?

          • BBMS

            Immigrants from Maryland maybe. Because they are the absolute worst drivers, amirite???

      • 1RLI

        It may not be articulate; it may not be polite; you may not like the poster, but I don’t agree that this is “hate speech.”

      • novasteve

        Sorry that I don’t have lovespeech for people who are so selfish that they risk people’s lives becaues they can’t drive safely becaues it might inconvenience them. Sorry I don’t love people who kill and/or hurt other people because they have a right to drive 2 feet behind my car while it’s snowing outside. How dare I!!

        • drax

          Leave it to Steve to completely bungle a message as simple and uncontroversial as “drive safely.”

      • Captain_Obvious

        that will never happen. Remember his epic cursing tirade back in November? He broke plenty of rules then and is still around.

        • Tabs

          He’ll just keep claiming he’s the victim.

          • novasteve

            How badly do you tailgate Tabs? I see you are the only person who is upset about my diatribe against people who will put other people’s lives at risk because they dare slow them down. I mean how dare I suggest that someone should adjust to driving conditions if its rainy or snowy. HOW DARE I!

          • Captain_Obvious

            Do you think you should have been banned back in November ?

      • BlueLoom

        +1000. C’mon, ARLNow. Step up to the plate and delete some of these nasty posts. You said you would. Now do it. Do you want volunteer moderators? I volunteer. You can probably get my email address from behind the scenes in this (and other) posts. Draw up some guidelines, drop me a line, and let’s get started on a crew of volunteer moderators. You folks can do the reporting & leave the admin tasks to us.

        • Captain_Obvious

          You’re wasting your breath.

  • Buckingham Bandit

    There’s usually a tendency on this site to forget that much (most?) of Arlington is single-family suburban-style houses (you know, the ones that people on this site make fun of Fairfax for having).

    My theory then is that much of it has to do with the fact that echo-boomers (children of baby-boomers) are leaving homes, making the baby-boomer parents empty-nesters.

    • BBMS

      SF detached is barely over 1/4 of the housing in Arlington.

    • Glebe Roader

      According to the Census Bureau’s American FactFinder website, 27.6% of Arlington’s population lives in single-family detached housing. Approximately 10% of the population lives in single-family attached housing (think side-by-side duplexes). About 62% of the population lives in Multi-unit structures.

  • Hollywood

    But are they factoring in the anticipated increase in the number of homeless and vagrants expected in the Courthouse area?

    • malaka

      no need – KK will have them all rounded up well before 2040

    • novasteve

      I’ve been reading in the CA press that people have been setting them on fire.

  • MC

    The population forecast is wrong. It has a margin of error of 36%, which makes it useless. Clearly it was based on a high level model that was shoehorned into each jurisdiction. It predicts most of Virginia’s population growth will happen outside of northern Virginia, which seems odd given that is area drives the state’s economic growth, and I can’t see why that would change suddenly. I checked out the website and there is no explanation at all of the methodology or assumptions used for the projections. I did notice that the report’s author is recently moved to Virginia, being originally from China.

  • esmith69

    I rarely agree with anything Novasteve says, but in this case I do agree with his basic point: people really need to learn to NOT speed/tailgate when it’s snowing. He’s right, it is a very selfish and naiive behavior.

    Good lord though, he could really use some help with his delivery–it would do wonders to win over people instead of just putting them on the defensive.

    • novasteve

      Naive implies innocent. These people are absolutely reckless. You have to be beyond stupid to not realize that if its icy or wet out that your stopping ability will be impacted. Since they must realize it, they are being reckless. They put other people’s lives in danger simply so they can get to their destination 30 seconds earlier.

      • Sunshine

        30 seconds earlier! Ha! You hit the nail on the head. I love when people lurch and swerve into another lane to get around someone (no signal of course) who is braking for a light ahead, only to be stopped at the same red light ten seconds later. Do they simply not see the red light? Is there a reason someone would speed up to a red light? Just pick a lane and stick with it. There is too much congestion around here to be tailgating, cutting people off and speeding. You really don’t get anywhere much faster. I would bet that a significant percentage of our population would fail a driver’s test if they had to take one today.

        • fedworker

          There’s a term for those type of drivers = MD drivers

  • Sunshine

    I have to agree about tailgating. The speed limit that is posted is for dry roads with good visibility. There is no reason to tailgate me when I am in the far right lane (on Rt 50) going the speed limit in snowy/icy conditions. Just go around me. You have two other lanes to work with.

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