Covid cases still falling in Arlington, down 60% from peak

The average rate of new daily Covid cases in Arlington has dropped about 60% between the Jan. 12 peak and today.

The latest Virginia Dept. of Health data shows a seven-day moving average of 259 cases per day in Arlington, down from 646 less than two weeks ago. Daily cases have been below 250 in each of the past four days.

Test positivity rates also continue to drop, reaching a seven-day moving average of 18.2% today, down from a peak of 29.3% on Jan. 2. About 1,800 tests from Arlington are being reported to VDH each day, on average, down from a peak of over 2,600 on Dec. 24.

The data point to the current Omicron-variant-fueled Covid wave continuing to wane locally, following regional and national trends. That will help ease Covid-related disruptions to everything from schools to childcare to medical staffing.

In his weekly public Facebook post, Virginia Hospital Center ER chief Mike Silverman wrote Friday that while cases are declining, the raw numbers remain high.

“Although Omicron is still surging throughout much of the US, it does appear that around NoVa, we’re declining from our peak. In the ER, new case numbers have fallen 65% from our peak 4 weeks ago,” Silverman wrote.

“The numbers are still 3-5 fold higher than in the fall,” he continued. “We’re still seeing plenty of COVID and people are still dying with COVID, but as an emergency department, we’re able to take a breath and we appreciate the surge is coming to an end. Our inpatient census is also down 30% percent from the peak.”

Silverman noted that “in the grand scheme of things, the Omicron variant is milder than Delta” — something that is reflected in the VDH stats. Hospitalizations among Arlington’s highly-vaccinated populace remain elevated, but at a lower level than might otherwise be expected given the record number of cases over the past month.

An average of two Covid-related hospitalizations have been reported each day in Arlington over the past week. Two Covid deaths have also been reported over the past week, including one today, according to VDH.