This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!
Question: Have you seen a drop in demand and buyer activity recently?
Answer: There has been a modest, but noticeable drop in the intensity of demand and buyer activity over the last 3-4 weeks. I’m seeing fewer showings/offers and more price reductions and cases of homes lasting through the first week on market. I saw signs of it in the second half of April, but it became most noticeable in May.
But let me be clear, we are still very much in a seller’s market. I expect prices to hold in many cases and continue increasing in some, but the frequency and number of escalations should start to ease (already has) and buyers may find themselves able to secure some contract protections (contingencies) they couldn’t before.
DC Area Demand Index Tapers, Arlington Remains Strongest Market
Below you will see the Bright MLS Home Demand Index for the DC area. From July 2021 through February 2022, demand trailed its year-over-year (YoY) counterpart and even came close to matching the YoY demand reading in February 2022. However, you’ll see a noticeable separation in YoY demand taking place in March and especially April. I expect these lines to separate even further in May.
It’s worth noting that, with a demand reading of 227, Arlington has the highest demand reading in this index amongst the nine jurisdictions included in the Washington DC area index, followed by Alexandria at 190 and Fairfax at 151.
Arlington Showing Activity Drops
I pulled data on total showings and showings per listing for Feb 1-May 23 2021 and 2022 on homes priced from $500k to $1.7M, with combined data for all price points at the top of each table. For those not interested in examining the data in detail, here are the highlights:
- Activity surged in the beginning of the year and shifted in April/May (I think this started in mid/late April)
- Showings per listing increased 20-26% YoY from February-April 2022, but decreased 12% YoY in May 2022
- Total showings were up a more modest 9% and 3% YoY in February and March 2022, respectively, but dropped by 11% and 25% YoY in April and May 2022, respectively
- Historically, we have seen showings slowdown from April to May, but the rate of the slowdown in 2022 compared to 2021 is significant
- From April 2021 to May 2021, showings per listing dropped 21%, but from April 2022 to May 2022, showings per listing dropped 43%
- From April 2021 to May 2021, total showings dropped 31%, but from April 2022 to May 2022, total showings dropped 42%
- In February and March, nearly every price range experienced a YoY increase in showings per listing and most experienced an increase in total showings as well. By April, the changes were split evenly between increased and decreased activity, but in May nearly every price range experienced a YoY decrease.
I will continue to track market data for you and in a couple months, once most of the spring contracts have closed, we will be able to measure how some of these early indicators of weaker demand effect price metrics.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460
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(This Community Post was written by Embracing Arlington Arts.)
Yes, live performances at theaters have begun again. Good news for patrons, good news for actors and crews, and good news for the industry overall, right? Well, yes and no as COVID is proving to be a powerful enemy. “The show must go on” is still the mantra — unless a cast or crew member tests positive. Then the curtain must fall for about a week — incurring huge financial losses for theaters, including paying the contracted professionals and refunding ticketholders. Production costs also now include purchasing testing equipment which can run into tens of thousands of dollars each month for larger theaters.
How can we help them continue to keep their doors open?
Go see a show and urge others to do the same! Word of mouth is the best means of filling theater seats!
Do you have personal documents that you need shredded? Join the Arlington Arts Center on Saturday, June 18, 10 a.m.-2 p.m. for our very own Community Shred Day with Paper Artist Demonstrations!
Bring a box or two of your unwanted papers and sensitive documents to dispose of on the TrueShred truck in the parking lot and watch paper artists from Pyramid Atlantic demonstrate paper-making.
$10 suggested donation for shredding (credit cards accepted). Donations will support the Arlington Arts Center’s mission to connect the community with contemporary art and artists.
Also, Saturday is the LAST DAY of our spring exhibitions! Make sure to visit inside and check out the galleries!
Celebrate the 50th Anniversary of the Clean Water Act; learn about efforts to keep the Potomac River clean and safe!
The Potomac River has come a long way from being described as a “national disgrace” by President Lyndon B. Johnson.