Arlington, VA

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 on the real estate market?

Answer: I hope you and your families are healthy and finding some productive ways to remain safely at home. It’s been great to see so much carryout and delivery activity at local restaurants, I hope we can keep our favorite establishments in business.

I want to shout out the Sunday evening manager at the South Arlington Ledo Pizza for the way he was expressing constant, sincere appreciation to every employee hard at work and each customer who came in. It was refreshing to hear such positivity.

This week I’ll cover some real-time market updates and take a look at how past recessions have impacted real estate.

March 30 Stay At Home Order — Executive Order 55

Yesterday afternoon, Governor Northam announced EO 55, at Temporary Stay At Home Order due to COVID-19 to further discourage gatherings and personal contact.

There was an immediate concern across the real estate community that the new order effectively shut down all real estate operations, but soon after Northam’s announcement, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) and the Virginia Association of Realtors (VAR) announced that under EO 55, real estate business may continue to operate using best practices for social distancing and other measures recommended by the CDC, as well as avoiding any gatherings of 10+ people. Here is a link to the official NVAR comments.

That means that as of this morning showings, inspections, appraisals, closings, lending and other activities critical to a real estate transaction are all still allowed in Virginia/Northern Virginia. Public Open Houses are strongly discouraged and many companies have suspended them.

Personally, I think showings are the most questionable activity because you can make a strong case in both directions. If somebody needs to find a home, it’s fair to say that they need to see the home in person before making an offer. On the flip side, somebody seeing five properties on a Saturday afternoon to prepare for a purchase 6 months from now should not be out on showings. There’s certainly a level of personal responsibility required here.

Arlington Market Update

It seems that much of the Arlington and Northern Virginia market has softened in the past week. This is based on further decreases in showing activity and the negotiations I’ve been directly involved in or aware of via colleagues. We won’t have actual price data available for another 3-4+ weeks when homes start closing that were placed under contract during the COVD-19 lockdown period.

New inventory continued to flow into the market, but was down from the previous week. A healthy 63 homes went under contract, showing that there are still buyers out there, but many of them are likely securing better terms than they would have a month ago, and facing much less competition.

Showing activity is unsurprisingly very low, with the average showings per listing dropping to 2.25 over the past week. With an average of about 15 showings before a ratified contract, expect average days on market to start increasing. However, the showings that are taking place tend to be to ready-buyers so it should take fewer showings than it used to for the right buyer to surface.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 on the real estate market?

Answer: I hope you are all staying healthy and sane(ish). My wife and I are trying to wrap our heads around school being canceled through the end of the academic year… yay!

Over the last two weeks, my Coronavirus columns (one and two) have included mostly anecdotal evidence on the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market, but now we’ve been in this for long enough that I can start using market data to measure the true effects. It will be at least a few more weeks before we can measure the effect on prices, but we can look at things like supply, showing activity and contract activity now.

What I’m Seeing/Hearing

This past weekend, most Open Houses were canceled and over the last week showing activity has dropped off dramatically. However, there are still plenty of active, motivated buyers making offers. What I’m seeing/hearing right now in the D.C. Metro market is that competition is down, prices haven’t taken much of a hit (yet), and new listings are still coming onto the market.

Mortgage rates had their most volatile week ever last week as investors basically stopped buying mortgages on the secondary market, but the Fed stepped in and has promised to stabilize the market until our economy (hopefully) returns to normal. Here are two (one and two) good reads on what happened last week to mortgages.

Impact On The D.C. Area Economy

While not real estate specific, I want to share the excellent work of Jeannette Chapman, Director of the Stephen S. Fuller Institute at our very own George Mason University, which takes an in-depth look at how Coronavirus is likely going to impact the D.C. area economy, based on current projections. Notably, they determine that the D.C. area will not be as insulated from this recession as the 2008 financial crisis. Be smart, be careful with your money folks.

While I’m slightly off the topic of real estate, I wanted to share a great website for tracking global and domestic COVID-19 data in real time, with helpful visuals. This website was shared with me by Arlington resident/Mom Elissa David, who owns the Unbroken Body to help Moms heal their bodies after pregnancy. She has temporarily turned her website into a resource for all of us parents who have suddenly become home school teachers!

Now let’s jump into some relevant real estate market data.

Market Data

SUPPLY

The number of new listings this past week in Arlington jumped 27% over the same week last year and 6% over two weeks ago. The D.C. Metro experienced less dramatic increases in new listings, but increases nonetheless.

Anecdotally, it seems many homeowners who were planning to sell in the next 4-8 weeks are accelerating their timeline, fearing the uncertainty of the future economy. A boost in inventory from motivated sellers while demand continues to fall (see below) could lead to a drop in prices in the near future.

Nationwide, the number of listings pulled off the market spiked over the past week.

Nationwide Data

SHOWINGS

The average number of showings per listing in Arlington (first chart) have dropped each of the last four weeks from 10.44 showings four weeks ago to 2.91 showings this past week.

Showings in Washington, D.C. have dropped by 41.4% compared to this time last year. The tool I have to generate this data only offers statewide info, so I chose to use Washington, D.C. (yes, I know it’s not a state) instead of Virginia because the Washington, D.C. market is much more reflective of Northern Virginia than the Virginia market. Showings are down 32.9% across North America.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 on the real estate market?

Answer: What a difference a week makes. Last Tuesday I started off semi-apologetic for writing what felt like a click-bait article at the time and this week it feels like writing about anything else would be absurd.

Last week I wrote that the impact of COVID-19 on real estate thus far was business as usual with a few big “What Ifs.” Those What Ifs came to fruition within 24-72 hours of Tuesday’s column — major changes to our daily routines (school closures, work closures) and significant changes in the global/domestic economy.

It is no longer business as usual in real estate, but the show still goes on for most buyers and some sellers… for now.

This week and in the following weeks I will do my best to communicate the impact of the Coronavirus on the local real estate market through my experiences, experiences shared by my colleagues/industry partners (inspectors, lenders, etc), and market data.

What I’m Seeing/Hearing

Combining the reactions of my clients and clients of the 15-20 agents I’ve spoken with over the last few days to gauge shifts in supply (sellers) and demand (buyers), it seems that many/most buyers are staying the course with their purchase but the jitters seem to be setting in more over the last couple of days, especially for those who also need to sell a home. Sellers are much more nervous, understandably so, and many are questioning their need/plans to sell their home.

Most agents experienced noticeable drops in Open House and showing traffic over the weekend, although I spoke with a few agents who hosted 20+ groups during an Open House. My guess is that there are fewer people visiting homes who aren’t serious/ready buyers and that usually makes up a large percentage of total foot traffic.

Many of the agents I spoke with who submitted an offer this weekend still found themselves competing against multiple offers with strong terms, but the number of competing offers seemed less than what they would have expected a few weeks ago.

I experienced this on a house in South Arlington that 2-3 weeks ago would have probably gotten 5-10 offers, but my client was up against just one or two, albeit strong, offers (they won!).

I think one of the best measures of buyer demand/activity is home inspection bookings. I spoke with Ken Humphreys, the Area Manager of Virginia and Maryland for BPG Inspections, one of the largest inspection companies in the country, and he shared some valuable insights on his activity, as well as regional and national activity.

Almost all of Ken’s business is in Northern Virginia and during a hot market (like the last 8 weeks) he’s often booked out for 5-7 days. His schedule is full this week Monday-Wednesday but wide-open starting Thursday, which never happens.

In Virginia and Maryland, their bookings are down 15% from where they were last week and they were projecting a 10% increase in bookings this week over last, given the time of year. Bookings are down about 20% nationally.

Transactions Still Going

There was some concern that transactions would be halted due to courts, appraisers, and loan underwriters shutting down due to Coronavirus but so far everybody is operational, with some adjustments to adhere to social distancing practices.

Arlington County courts, like many others, have restricted walk-in business but essential services are still available which includes e-recording of deeds (allows property ownership to officially transfer). Lenders and appraisers are still operational, but people should prepare for longer turn-around times.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How will the threat of Coronavirus impact the real estate market in 2020?

Answer: I wasn’t planning to write this, it seems a little click-baity (now my “Trump’s Impact on Real Estate” column has some competition!), but I got the question four different times in under 24 hours last week so here I am writing about it.

Too Early To Know

Nobody knows how Coronavirus is going to impact the real estate market over the next month or the next ten months because we don’t know what the real impact of the virus will be on public health and markets. According to President Trump, it could disappear one day “like a miracle” and according to others, we could face a devastating pandemic.

Yesterday’s stock market closed down nearly 8% and this morning, the Futures were up almost 4%. Uncertainty slows the real estate market down and the only certainty right now is how uncertain the markets and public are about COVID-19. It’s hard to see how this type of uncertainty doesn’t create a drag on real estate across the country, the question is how long it will last.

Beyond the uncertainty, you have the very real impact of a sharp decline in investment/retirement accounts that many people use for down payments. With many accounts down double digits over the last two weeks, some buyers may reconsider their decision to sell stocks right now.

On the other hand, interest rates are historically low, hitting all-time lows last week and the real estate market across the greater D.C. Metro has been on fire since January so it’ll take a major shift in demand to slow things down as we head into peak buying season.

What I’ve Heard

So far, what I’m hearing from clients, colleagues and other industry partners (lenders, title, etc) is that buyers are hoping the Coronavirus slows the market down so they can have a better opportunity to buy, but there seems to be very few people actually pulling out of the market or reducing offers because of it.

Currently, buyers still seem more motivated by historically low rates and lack of buying opportunities than they are concerned that the likely impact of the virus. It seems that long-term confidence in local real estate is still a stronger influence on people’s decisions.

I think this mindset could change quickly, having broad negative effects on the local real estate market, if markets continue to tank, systematic failures in the market appear (e.g. Mortgage-backed Securities in 07-08), or people begin experiencing more direct effects of the virus like work/school closures or people they know testing positive.

This is an important change to watch for if you’re considering putting your home on the market in the coming weeks.

Don’t Overvalue Speculation

It’s important to distinguish between fact and speculation and not overvalue speculation. If you spend 30 minutes online today, you’ll be able to find an assortment of well-supported reasons why the markets is on the brink of another recession as well as well-supported reasons why everything will be just fine, with growth ahead.

Your decision should be rooted in things you can rely on like how long you can live happily in a home (nothing creates value like longer ownership periods) and what your best alternatives are to buying (renting, staying put) or selling (do you have a better utilization of your equity?).

Of course, you want to consider the national, regional and local economy as well as neighborhood trends, development pipelines and other factors that will influence appreciation/depreciation potential, but be careful not to overvalue speculation. 

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: The County significantly increased the assessment value of my home this year, should I appeal it?

Answer: It’s that time of year again… time for homeowners to find out they’ll be paying more in real estate taxes this year due to an increase in the assessed value of their homes. Arlington increased the assessed value of residential real estate by an average of 4.3%, which is less than the 6.3% increase in average sold price in 2019 and much less than the 8.9% increase in median sold price.

Tax assessments are based on the sum of the County’s determination of the value of the land your home sits on and the value of the improvements made to that land (your home). The County adjusts each of these values every year to generate the total assessed value, of which Arlington homeowners pay about 1% of each year to the County in real estate taxes.

Based on conversations I’ve had with homeowners around the County, it sounds like most of the increase in assessments this year were driven by increases in the land value, which makes sense.

Assessed Value vs Market Value

While it is frustrating to see your assessment increase so much, costing homeowners an average of a few hundred dollars in additional tax payments, it’s highly unlikely you’re in a position to challenge your assessment. Over the last 14 months, the County’s assessed value was an average of 14.2% below what homes actually sold for.

Here’s a breakdown of how the County’s assessment compared to actual sold prices since 2019, broken out by zip code, property type and price range. Here are some highlights from the data:

  • If the County’s assessment matched actual market values, homeowners would pay an average of about $800 more per year in taxes
  • Unsurprisingly, the zip codes with the greatest difference between market values and assessed values were all three South Arlington zip codes (22202, 22204, 22206), with homes in 22202 (home to Amazon HQ2) selling for nearly 20% more than the County’s assessment
  • The County has the most difficult time assessing home values in 22205 compared to other zip codes and, unsurprisingly, detached homes compared to condos or townhouses
  • Residents who own homes worth over $1M benefited the most by the County’s low assessments, with market values nearly 19% higher than their tax assessment, resulting in an average annual savings of about $1,900 if the County’s assessments were on par with market values

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Do you know when Pierce condos sales will begin?

Answer: Penzance’s ambitious Pierce condo project, the high-end 104-unit building that is currently under construction in Rosslyn, began setting pre-sale appointments last week and taking their first deposits this week for condos expected to deliver in 2021. Their sales team set over 50 appointments during an invite-only event last week, indicating plenty of interest in the building… but will that interest turn into the 10% deposit needed to secure a unit in Northern Virginia’s most expensive building?

When 2000 Clarendon in Courthouse began sales there was no question the demand would be through the roof given the lack of condo supply and that pricing was within range of other condos in the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor. However, Pierce is a different product and very different price point with over half of the units priced over $2M and many units going for $1,100-$1,200/sq. ft.

The most comparable building we have to this in Arlington is Turnberry Tower in Rosslyn (the blue glass building) which has had 85 sales in the last five years, 20 of which have been over $2M and only seven at $1,000/sq. ft. or more. Pierce will need to sell 104 units in a lot less than five years with more than 50 units being $2M+.

Is the luxury buyer market in Arlington/Northern Virginia deep enough to support these sales? I’m looking forward to finding out.

What Will You Get?

The amenity package at Pierce includes a 24hr concierge staff, rooftop pool, two-level gym, and a rooftop club room and terrace.

Each unit is being designed with the same finishes and color package; there will not be any options/upgrades for buyers. The package includes Thermador and Bosch appliances, custom Snaidero cabinetry, hand-scrapped hickory floors, quartz countertops and many units with direct-access elevators.

There have been other high-end condo projects in the region that have taken a similar approach of not offering finish options for buyers, so there is some precedent.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How is the market shaping up for 2020? Have things cooled down or picked up where they left off last year?

Answer: The early Arlington/Northern Virginia market conditions are… crazy. After a fast and furious 2019 for condos and detached/townhouse properties in Arlington, it looks like we’re in for another year of fast-paced sales and strong appreciation.

In some of the most in-demand markets (e.g. R-B Corridor condos and $800k-$1.2M detached) pre-inspections (buyers do an inspection before making an offer), zero contingencies and escalations 3-10% over the asking price no longer guarantee an accepted offer because there are multiple buyers offering those terms.

From the activity I’ve seen on both the buyer and seller side of this market, it seems like sellers can safely increase their asking price by 3-5% over what 2019 sales support and soon enough appraisers will have the necessary data points to support these increases, thereby eliminating much of the current appraisal risk for financed purchases.

Activity Over The Last 30 Days

The market fired up within the first couple weeks of January, but you know I never like to make statements about the market without also backing it up with data. So here are some highlights on the type of activity we’ve had over the last ~30 days (excluding relisted homes, Coops, and age-restricted housing). The data is of 7 a.m. Tuesday, February 18:

  • 223 homes listed for sale
  • Of those 223 homes, 150 (67.3%) are sold or under contract
  • Of the 150 homes sold or under contract, only 16 (10.7%) were on the market for 10+ days and 97 (64.7%) were on the market for 6 days or less (indicative of multiple offers)
  • Of the 73 homes still for sale, 37 (50.7%) are still within their first week on the market (high probability of going under contract soon) and 16 (21.9%) are $1.7M+
  • Of the 25 that sold, only one sold for below the original asking price and it was in a condo building with a major pending lawsuit that makes it nearly impossible for a buyer to get a loan. 7 have sold for over ask.

New Supply Increasing, Total Supply Decreasing Less

There is a glimmer of hope for buyers amongst all the competition and price appreciation. Arlington had a YoY increase in new listings for December ’19 and January ’20 for the first time since October ’18 (Amazon HQ2 announced in November ’18). While demand is still outpacing new supply, resulting in 45(!) consecutive months of YoY decreases in housing supply, the drop in YoY supply was below 20% for the first time since October ’18 (-8.8% drop). So what does that mean in plain English? It’s getting less bad.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: We bought a new home in Arlington five years ago and are considering selling, but we’re concerned about the resale value of new homes given the amount of newer homes being built in the market. Do you have any data on how new homes do when they resell for the first time?

Answer: The new/newer construction market is the only Arlington sub-market that is anywhere close to properly supplied, with almost 4.5 months of inventory available (number of homes for sale divided by average sales per month = months of inventory).

Most housing economists say that a market is at balance for buyers and sellers when there is six months of inventory. For comparison, sub-markets like one-and-two-bedroom condos, <$1M detached homes, and townhouses each have between one and three weeks of supply.

New Homes Are Appreciating…

There’s a logical case to be made that when a new home (built within the last decade) gets resold, it will struggle to compete with other brand-new homes given how similar these homes have been over the last ten years, combined with the amount of supply in the market. Fortunately for owners of recently built homes who may sell in the near future, that logic does not prevail and new homes are being sold for more the second time around. 

…But Just A Little

There aren’t a ton of data points yet (most people buying expensive new construction will be there for a long time), but just enough that I think we can start to get a good idea of how new homes (that aren’t new anymore) from the past decade perform when they’re resold into a market with many similar new homes.

To study this, I identified homes built since 2012 that have since resold, excluding homes that sold within one year of their original purchase or any homes with major improvements since the original purchase or clearly left in disrepair.

Here’s a summary of my findings:

  • 53 homes met the criteria, nearly all in North Arlington
  • Average appreciation on resale was 6.7%
  • Average annualized appreciation was 2.1%
  • Only seven homes sold for less than they were bought
  • Sixteen homes sold for at least 10% above what they were bought
  • On average, it took 64 days for these homes to go under contract, about 30% longer than the entire detached home market during that same period

Cause For Concern?

For those who own a new(er) home, you may be underwhelmed by these numbers relative to what the rest of the market is doing — compared to other detached homes in the Arlington market, new homes are appreciating at a noticeably slower rate.

Part of that is due to the fact that there’s a much higher supply of similar new/newer homes for sale so that will naturally keep prices more stable. Another reason is that it takes longer for the upper end of the market to appreciate, so the growth we’ve seen <$1.25M hasn’t impacted the $1.5M+ market as much.

So is a new home a bad investment because it appreciates less than other homes? Not at all.

First, one of the reasons buyers pay a premium for new/newer homes is because your maintenance and repair costs should be significantly lower for the first 10-15 years. Investment value isn’t only about what you buy and sell for, it’s also about how much you spend between the two transactions keeping the house operating (often more valuable than appreciation).

Second, for most families, a new/newer home offers square footage and a floor plan they can’t find anywhere else so the non-financial/quantifiable benefits are significant. Opportunities to customize to taste also factor into the non-financial/quantifiable return that owners may receive.

The new construction market operates differently from the rest of the housing market. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected]. And a quick plug for two custom homes on ¼ acre lots I’m selling in Bellevue Forest, being built by James McMullin, Arlingtonian and third-generation Arlington developer/builder. Demolition and excavation will start in the next month!

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: What changes are you seeing in design trends this year?

Answer: Every year I look forward to the Pantone Color of the Year selection (released annually since 2000) and this year is one of my personal favorites — Classic Blue. I’ve noticed blues showing up a lot more in homes lately, especially in kitchens (it makes for a beautiful cabinet color, in my opinion).

But trends go well beyond colors so for an expert opinion on the latest design trends, I’d like to re-introduce Caroline Goree ([email protected]), a designer with a boutique Residential Interior Design Firm, Madigan Schuler, located in Alexandria, Virginia to provide insight into what trends we should expect to see in 2020.

In 2018, Caroline introduced us to one of my favorite design quotes from Matthew Frederick’s book 101 Things I Learned in Architecture School, “Being nonspecific in an effort to appeal to everyone usually results in reaching no one.”

Take it away Caroline…

Thank you, Eli. I am really excited for the trends we see happening in 2020 primarily because people are experimenting with color, textures and patterns much more than in the past few years. While those “safe” design decisions like all white kitchens aren’t necessarily going to go of style, I like seeing more personal flare and individuality come through. Below are some of my personal favorite trend hello’s and goodbye’s of 2020.

Goodbye One-Stop Shoppin’

Thanks to Restoration Hardware, the “all gray everything” trend was popular for the better part of the last 5+ years. Thankfully, that “one-stop shop” mindset is shifting to consumers wanting a more collected look.

Maybe that means a sofa from a known store, such as Restoration Hardware, mixed with vintage velvet club chairs found at Miss Pixies in Washington, D.C. Add in your grandmother’s fabulous antique chest for a coffee table (hard to believe you once referred to is as old “brown” furniture) and a natural fiber rug so your room has that layered, collected look.

Personally, I am thrilled the trend is moving towards an appreciation for a well curated space using unique items that are not all new and mass produced. Interior Designer, Nate Burkus, once said “Your home should tell the story of who you are, and be a collection of what you love.”

Hello Square Tiles

Thanks to Chip and Joanna Gains (and 90% off the local flippers) subway tile is officially overused and seen in just about every kitchen or bathroom completed since 2015. While timeless (after all, it is named after the 3×6 tiles installed in 1904 in the New York Subway Station) we are ready to explore other shapes and textures.

My personal favorite, square tiles, offer a more unique look but keep the space simple and sleek. From matte concrete tiles in mudrooms, to hand painted terracotta tiles for kitchen backsplashes, many manufacturers are using this traditional shaped tile with an artistic or creative twist. If square tiles still feel a bit out of your comfort zone, try playing with the scale of rectangular tiles such as sizes 2×9 or 3×12.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How did the Arlington real estate market do in 2019?

Answer: Arlington’s real estate market made the national news cycle more than a few times in 2019 with some pretty extraordinary references to rapid appreciation — some accurate and some not. I’ve seen prices in some pockets of the market surge 15-20% in 2019, but for most of the market, appreciation was strong but not eye-popping.

Overall, the average and median price of a home sold in Arlington in 2019 was $705k and $610k, a 6.3% and 8.9% increase over 2018, respectively. Average days on market dropped by one week and an incredible 61.4% of buyers paid at or above the seller’s original asking price. The number of homes listed for sale in 2019 dropped about 17% compared to 2018 and demand surged, with buyers absorbing about 67% more inventory in 2019 than in 2018.

Last week I looked at how Arlington’s condo market performed in 2019 and this week we’ll dig into the performance of the detached and townhouse/duplex markets. I did separate write-ups on the 22202 (Amazon zip code) condo and detached home markets last month and decided not to include data from 22202 in most of the analysis for this week.

Arlington Detached/Townhouse Market Performance

First, we’ll take a look at some of the key measures for market performance across Arlington and within North and South Arlington. I’ve listed some highlights below, followed by a summary data table:

  • Median detached home prices increase by 6.7% from $890k in 2018 to $950k in 2019
  • Median townhouse/duplex prices increased 8.5% from $530k in 2018 to $575k in 2019
  • Average detached homes prices increased by an average of 5.1% and townhouse/duplex homes by 3.6%
  • South Arlington appreciated more than North Arlington, particularly in the less expensive townhouse/duplex market
  • On average, a detached home in North Arlington is 55.5% more expensive than a detached home in South Arlington and 76.9% more expensive for townhouse/duplex homes
  • Buyers accomplished very little trying to negotiate with sellers, averaging just 1.1% off original asking prices on detached homes and paying an average of 1% over the original asking price on townhouse/duplex homes
  • The number of new detached homes sold in 2019 was just below the trailing five-year average. Note that not all new homes make it in the MLS, so the actual count is likely a bit higher

Performance By Zip Code

Next let’s take a look at average prices for both detached and townhouse/duplex homes by zip code:

  • Over the last five years, the top performing zip codes have been 22202 (National Landing) and 22209 (Rosslyn area), with Amazon HQ2 and Nestle leading the way in the commercial sector for those zip codes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this trend continue over the next five years
  • Nearly all of the appreciation for 22202 came from 2019’s Amazon bump
  • If I remove new construction sales from the data, the appreciation percentages remain relatively similar for every zip code except for 22203 and 22213. Without new construction included, 22203 gained 4.5% (instead of zero change) and 22213 gained .5% (instead of dropping 2%), in 2019

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How did the Arlington real estate market do in 2019?

Answer: Arlington’s real estate market made the national news cycle more than a few times in 2019 with some pretty extraordinary references to rapid appreciation — some accurate and some not. I’ve seen prices in some pockets of the market surge 15-20% in 2019, but for most of the market, appreciation was strong but not eye-popping.

Overall, the average and median price of a home sold in Arlington in 2019 was $705k and $610k, a 6.3% and 8.9% increase over 2018, respectively. Average days on market dropped by one week and an incredible 61.4% of buyers paid at or above the seller’s original asking price. The number of homes listed for sale in 2019 dropped about 17% compared to 2018 and demand surged, with buyers absorbing about 67% more inventory in 2019 than in 2018.

This week I will dig into how Arlington’s condo market performed in 2019 and next week I’ll do the same for the detached single-family home and townhouse market. I did separate write-ups on the 22202 (Amazon zip code) condo and detached home markets last month.

Arlington Condo Market Performance

First we’ll take a look at some of the key measures for market performance across Arlington and within North and South Arlington. This data excludes age-restricted housing (The Jefferson), Cooperatives (River Place) and townhouse-style condos (Fairlington).

  • The condo market seems to have appreciated 7-8% in 2019, after experiencing barely any growth from 2013-2017 and modest growth in 2018
  • South Arlington beat out North Arlington in every key category, which makes sense because it’s an easier price point for homeowners and investors who wanted some sort of real estate position in Arlington before Amazon’s hiring picks up
  • The average condo buyer in South Arlington paid .8% over the seller’s asking price

Condos in North Arlington sold twice as fast as they did from 2015-2017. In South Arlington they sold more than three times faster than 2015-2016.

Performance of Different Sub-Markets

I took a look at some of the sub-markets that make up large cross-sections of Arlington’s condo market to see how they performed compared to the overall market.

For “standard” 1 BR and 2 BR condos in the Rosslyn-Ballston (R-B) Corridor I specifically looked at condos in buildings constructed during the 2000s condo boom with 650-800 sq. ft. (1 BR) and 950-1,200 sq. ft. (2 BR).

  • “Standard” R-B 1 BRs appreciated 4% in 2019
  • “Standard” R-B 2 BRs appreciated 5% in 2019

For “older” 1 BR and 2 BR condos, I looked at those constructed in the 1940s-1960s. This category of condos had been slow to appreciate and as of 2018, a lot of owners were still trying to dig out from 2005-2007 prices.

  • Older 1 BRs appreciated 7.4% in 2019
  • Older 2 BRs appreciated 10.5% in 2019

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