This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
On Friday, I learned that the house fire at the Hyde Park condominium in Ballston was the home of my friend, Greg, his wife Caroline, and their beloved dog, Maisie. I’m sure you saw it in Wednesday’s ARLnow news cycle.
Greg and Caroline were not home when the fire occurred, but they tragically lost their dog Maisie, a loss that overshadows the loss of their personal belongings.
A Bit About Maisie
Maisie lived in the Ballston neighborhood since she was born almost six years ago. She loved meeting old friends and new, between her walks at home and her frequent training walks in Old Town, she had more than either of her parents did. She loved every dog and cat and person she ever met, but she never got over her mistrust of squirrels. She will be missed as much as she was loved.
Lost Dog & Cat Rescue Foundation is celebrating its 25th anniversary this year and is an exemplary nonprofit that helps homeless pets find their way to loving homes through rescue and adoption.
There is nothing Greg and Caroline would appreciate more than knowing that Maisie’s memory is helping support the well-being of other dogs and cats.
Leave a Kind Word for Greg and Caroline
If you would like to share well wishes with Greg and Caroline, please leave a comment, and I’ll make sure it gets back to them.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Carolanne Korolowicz, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Carolanne in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach her directly at [email protected].
2026 Arlington County Fair Logo
The Arlington County Fair has always been the unofficial ode to summer. Funnel cakes and flashing lights act as the bridge between the memories of summer and the anticipation of the school year ahead. From early-morning trips with my family as a child to staying until curfew as a teen, the “urban fair” has been a tradition for myself and most every Arlingtonian I know.
This year marks the fair’s golden jubilee. For five decades, the fair has been one of the East Coast’s largest free events. The mission of the fair has always been to bring premier entertainment for everyone and to highlight the diverse makeup of the county. Community involvement has always been the backbone of pulling off this one-of-a-kind fair.
Photo Courtesy of The Arlington Historical Society
In 1976, the local garden program wanted to show off the fruits of their labor at a “Harvest Day”. As the event planning started, the idea to expand to include more community members led to the county fair concept. The inaugural fair was immediately praised by Arlington residents and local press. An old-school, rural-style event situated amongst an urban area was intriguing. The Washington Post previewed the fair stating, “Where can an exceptional chrysanthemum raised on the tenth-floor balcony of the Crystal House apartment complex in Arlington receive its just due? Until this week, nowhere. However, if entered before 9 a.m. Friday it could be a blue-ribbon winner in the First Annual Arlington County Fair.”
On Friday, August 28, 1976, the ceremonial ribbon was cut and Arlingtonians were given the opportunity to showcase their crafts, hobbies and talents. Ranging from eggplants to bundt cakes, many of the competitive exhibits were similar to the ones residents still enter today. The event’s pioneers also brought in livestock from the Loudoun County 4-H Club, keeping with the traditional elements of a fair. By the early 1980s, the exhibit and vendor applications skyrocketed. Live entertainment, including a barbershop quartet, Hungarian folk musicians, and even a ventriloquist, was added to the docket. Eventually, livestock appearances started to fade, but the midway rides we know today were added.
In recent years, the volunteer-driven Arlington County Fair Board has continued to include entertainment, vendors and spaces for all residents (and all 150,000 visitors in attendance). Additions have included cuisine outside of the traditional candied apple and hot dog, featuring local businesses that reflect the area’s diverse food scene. A beer garden, featuring Solace Brewing Company’s libations, now makes for a great space to sit down and appreciate the performances. And as a toddler mom, I personally appreciate the recently established sensory-friendly hours during the opening hours on Saturday & Sunday.
The week leading up to it, Thomas Jefferson Community Center starts its transformation from soccer fields to fairground. Driving down 2nd St. South acts as a sneak peek at the fun ahead. Though the fair continues to expand outwards, there is still a comfort and nostalgia, year after year, walking the same route around the fair. Whether you beeline for the Zipper, or skip over to the ring toss, or make sure to sample the food trucks first — you know exactly where to find it.
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: How has the Arlington condo market performed in the first half of 2026?
Answer: After a down year for condo prices in 2025, values rebounded close to 2024 levels despite properties staying on market longer and fewer condos selling for at or above their original asking price.
Market Values Higher, Despite Difficulty Selling
The average and median $/SF increased 3.3% and 5%, respectively
The average and median price increased 6.6% and 8.3%, respectively
Over the past five years, the average and median price per square foot increased by just 5%
Sellers felt more pressure during the sale, with the average condo taking an extra ten days to sell (42 days on market) and buyers negotiating an average of 2.1% off the original asking price, compared to 1.8% in 2025
Just 40% of condos sold for at or above the asking price, compared to 39% last year and ~ 50% from 2022-2024.
One-Bedroom Values Flat/Stable, Two-Bedroom Values Higher but Volatile
In 2026, the average $/SF of two-bedroom condos increased by 3.7%, compared to just 0.2% for one-bedroom condos
In 2025, the average $/SF of two-bedroom condos decreased by 6.5%, compared to a decrease of 1.7% for one-bedroom condos
The average $/SF of one-bedroom condos are still 1.6% below 2024 values and two-bedroom condos are 3.1% below 2024 values
Condo Fees Play a Significant Role in Condo Sales
The median monthly condo fee increased 3.6% to $638. On a fee-per-square-foot basis, the median rose 0.5% to about $0.70.
Among 2026 sales with fees below $0.50/SF, the median market time was 11 days, 51.4% sold at or above original ask, and the average sale was 98.6% of original ask. At $1.00+/SF, the median time on market more than doubled, only 35.6% sold at or above ask, and the average sale was 95.8% of original ask. Price reductions were also more common: 32.2% versus 22.9%.
Looking Forward
Given that price growth was attributable to two-bedroom condos, not the entire condo market, and it occurred with key demand metrics well below long-term averages, I wouldn’t be surprised to see values recede in the second half of 2026.
Additionally, condo inventory in Q2 of 2026 was 37% higher than in Q2 2025, while absorption rates were down. More supply combined with less demand is another indicator of downward pressure on condo values in the second half of 2026.
How the Data is Organized
For my mid-year reviews, I like to compare the first half of the year to the first half of prior years, rather than comparing the first half of the current year to the full year in prior years. We tend to see a stronger market (higher demand, more competition) in the first half of the year than the second half, so this approach gives us a better apples-to-apples comparison.
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: How has the Arlington single-family home market performed in the first half of 2026?
Answer: Arlington’s single-family detached (SFD) market got busier and more competitive in the first half of 2026, yet prices increased at their slowest pace since 2023.
More Competition, Modest Appreciation (Resale Market)
Note: this data is for resales of single-family detached (SFD) homes; I have a separate analysis of the new construction market further down.
The average and median price increased 3.5% and 1.9%, respectively
Over the past five years, the average and median price increased 13.9% and 11.1%, respectively
The average and median price of a home increased to $1.44M and $1.299M, respectively
Demand and competition rose to the highest levels since 2022, with 66% of homes selling within the first ten days on market and 68% of homes selling at or above the original asking price
The average buyer paid 1.3% more than the original asking price, compared to 2025 when the average buyer paid 0.3% less than the original asking price
Buyers of homes that went under contract within the first week on market paid an average of 4.7% over the asking price
Dig Deeper: Performance Varied by Size, Price Point
The appreciation gap between the average price (3.5%) and median price (1.9%) matters. The average is more sensitive to expensive sales. In 2026, 15.7% of closed resales sold for $2M or more, up from 12.7% in 2025. At the other end of the market, only 21.7% sold below $1M, down from 24.4%. That shift toward higher-priced homes helped lift the average faster than the median.
Average and median prices are useful, but neither tells us whether gains were shared evenly across the market. To test that, I divided the closed resale market into four sold-price quartiles for each year. Each quartile represents one-fourth of that year’s sales, from the least expensive 25% to the most expensive 25%. (more…)
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: How much of an impact do you think the ROAD to Housing Act will have on housing affordability in Arlington?
Answer: The Road to Housing Act became law ten days ago, with the stated goal of improving housing affordability in the United States.
I don’t see many policies in the Act that will improve affordability in the Arlington/Northern VA/DC Metro markets, outside of incentives for more affordable multi-family housing, but there are policies that should improve affordability in other markets that are more saturated with institutional investors that own swaths of single-family homes (e.g. Atlanta and Phoenix) and for manufactured/mobile homes.
The Local Conversation Needs to Change
If we are going to improve affordability in our market, most of the change has to be done locally/regionally, not nationally, but it requires a paradigm shift in how we discuss and solve for housing affordability.
Affordability Disconnect: Near Term Expectations Not Realistic
A disconnect between housing affordability expectations and reality prevents the right community and political conversations from happening. We expect/demand housing affordability immediately, ignoring the difficulty, and consequences, of achieving it that quickly.
Stable and healthy housing affordability is a long-term process requiring gradual change over a 10-15+ year period.
Demand-Side Solutions Won’t Work
Demand-side solutions, such as lower interest rates or easier financing, artificially inflate home values, as seen during the COVID-era housing boom and early 2000s. They are not a good long-term solution to affordability because they push values even higher (along with your property taxes) and affordability gets worse when rates/lending normalize and no longer provide artificially low monthly payments.
Supply-Side Solutions Are Not Immediate
Most policy discussions focus on supply-side solutions: building more/faster and denser housing (e.g. Arlington’s Missing Middle/Expanded Housing Option), incentivizing more existing home sales, or disincentivizing concentrated ownership by companies and individuals. Econ 101 tells us that more supply = lower prices = affordable housing (winner winner!).
This is the only path to stable, long-term housing affordability…BUT, at current interest rates, prices must drop 30-35% in the United States to become affordable, at current income levels. A 30-35% drop in home values would devastate the economy, so a supply-side solution won’t (shouldn’t) provide immediate affordability. (more…)
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Carolanne Korolowicz, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Carolanne in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach her directly at [email protected].
Between headlines and algorithms, it is apparent the ideas of “knowing your farmer” or “grow your own” are some of the top trends in health & wellness. As fast-paced city-slickers, recreating the mini-homesteads plastered all over Instagram and Pinterest feels, and probably is, impossible.
Though the aesthetic and manual labor might not appeal to many, most everyone loves the idea of eating and supporting local. The average grocery store vegetable travels over 1,500 miles and is stored in warehouses for weeks, so it is difficult to consume hyper-local, fresh produce. Area 2 Farms, a USDA-organic farm share, has brought a solution to Arlington residents with their simple mission – “move the farm, not the food.”
Area 2 Farms Frontage
When I recently took a tour of Area 2 Farms, the best description would be that it was like I got the “organic golden ticket”. Inconspicuously located among South Four Mile Run’s rows of industrial buildings, a team of Arlington-local farmers grow all their own produce, year-round, inside an expansive commercial space. Unlike traditional farming, this urban version features rows of crops extending upwards. A variety of lettuce, micro-greens and root vegetables were thriving in Area 2 Farm’s unique equipment that looked to almost graze the ceiling.
The bulk of produce is grown on an impressive piece of machinery designed and patented by the farm’s founder. Silo, the farmers’ name for the system, starts with each crop planted within a “tote”, essentially a planter box, and set on wheels. Each floor has varying light and heat to mimic the natural temperature and intensity of the sun within a 24-hour period. The crops are moved by a conveyor belt in a snake-like pattern up and down the machinery. Silo also irrigates the plants and features a system to recapture and reuse water. (more…)
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Fannie Mae sets the rules for (most) residential lending and just released new requirements for condo loans. Here’s a link to the full release and I’ll highlight a few changes that have the biggest implications for Arlington/Northern VA condos.
Thanks to the always-on it, Trey Reed of Cross Country Mortgage ([email protected], 703.297.9382), for the notice and helpful explanation on these changes.
Elimination of 50% Investor-Owned (rental) Unit Limits
This rule caused mass confusion for years for condo boards/owners and is now eliminated.
The actual rule: No second-home or investment loans in buildings with 50%+ units owned by investors (rented), loans for primary residences were always permitted
What people thought the rule was: No loan of any type in buildings with 50%+ units owned by investors (rented)
Effective Immediately: The 50%+ investor-owned limit is eliminated for ALL loan types.
Why it Matters: This should increase the buyer pool for investor-heavy buildings which is good for values, but may push rental percentages even higher, which most owner-occupants consider a negative.
What to Watch: Many condo buildings with rental caps set them at, or just below, 50% because of this rule (I’m generally opposed to rental caps) so it makes sense that some buildings will drop their rental caps. On the other hand, the elimination of this rule may increase the number of investor purchases and owner-occupants may play defense by adding a rental cap. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 2-3 years.
Increased Reserve Allocation to 15%
What Changed: For loan applications dated after Jan 4 2027, condos must budget at least 15% of their total income from assessments (condo fees) toward Reserve contributions.
Background Context: Previously, the requirement was 10%. Reserves are a building’s savings account for the maintenance and replacement of common elements (e.g. HVAC, roof, carpet, paint, parking garage, etc).
Between the Lines: Underfunded Reserves are the biggest financial risks for a condo association; and thus for the banks that lend to its owners. The minimum contribution requirement is an effort by Fannie Mae to reduce this risk exposure.
Why it Matters: This is a nationwide rule, but Arlington/Northern VA condos tend to be in a better financial position, with stronger reserve balances, than many others across the country and do not need 15%+ annual reserve contribution to properly maintain their Reserves. As a result, this rule will force these buildings, that have been financially responsible for years/decades, to increase condo fees unnecessarily to meet the new requirement. This will result in an unnecessarily overfunded Reserve account and put downward pressure on market values because monthly fees are higher. (more…)
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: Do you expect the housing market to continue at its current pace through the summer?
Answer: Buyers throughout Northern VA have faced stiff competition so far in 2026, especially for detached homes and townhomes. Some relief is coming to buyers still searching for a home, although it will come at the cost of seeing fewer homes hit the market.
The data below is based on homes sold in Arlington VA that went under contract in 2023-2025, but the seasonal trends apply across most Northern VA markets.
Second Half Market is Slower, Less Competitive
When you buy a home affects the way you experience the housing market. Buyers who are active in the first half of the year experience a constant flow of new listings, homes going under contract quickly, frequent competition, and rising prices. Buyers who are active in the second half of the year see fewer listings, homes take longer to sell, less competition, and more stable prices.
Slower market: Homes sell about 30% slower in the second half of the year
More negotiations: Buyers negotiate ~2% more off the original asking price in the second half of the year
Harder to find what you want: 25-30% fewer homes come to market during the second half of the year
Prices stabilize: Prices tend to appreciate during the first half of the year and stabilize in the second half of the year
Caution on misreading the data: The 3% and 7% drop in average sold price in the second half of 2024 and 2025 does not necessarily mean home values were 3% and 7% lower during that time, the drop is more correlated to less expensive homes being listed for sale in the second half of the year than the first half
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
This year’s July 4th fireworks show on the National Mall will set the world record for the largest fireworks display ever, with 860,000 fireworks planned (we normally see 17,000-20,000) over a 40-minute display of explosions and light.
If you can’t bear the thought of dealing with traffic, crowds, and tourists to watch the fireworks, you can buy a private or semi-private view from about a dozen different condo buildings in Arlington.
This week, I’m highlighting Arlington condo buildings that offer the best views of DC fireworks, either from the privacy of your own unit/balcony or a shared rooftop.
Buildings With Exceptional Views from a Shared Rooftop
Built in 2021, Pierce boasts the highest price per square foot of any building in Arlington, earning its premium with a spectacular rooftop terrace and pool, a penthouse-level owner’s club, two-story gym, and private elevator access to select residences. The units are some of the largest available condos in Northern VA, spanning 1,300-2,400 square feet, ranging in price from about $1M-$4M.
Pierce rooftop includes DC views, pool, grills, and fireplace
Built in 2021, 2000 Clarendon is one of Arlington’s newest condo buildings and offers residents a large rooftop terrace, a rooftop social room, and gym. Most of the units here are one or two bedrooms, with some offering an additional den, and range in price from about $550,000 to $2M. (more…)
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Carolanne Korolowicz, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Carolanne in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach her directly at [email protected].
There is something special about establishing a home within walls that hold history. Arlington consists of a handful of late 19th-century houses, but few have helped shape a community like Glencarlyn’s 5501 3rd Street South. Coming soon to the market, a new owner gets the opportunity to continue this property’s story.
(Photo Courtesy of Pauline Leonard, Long & Foster Real Estate)
Nestled within the Historic Glencarlyn Neighborhood, surrounded by parkland, this Late Victorian home was once the community’s educational epicenter. In 1892, The Village Improvement Association (now the Glencarlyn Civic Association) approached Alexandria County School Board requesting a grade school for the hamlet During this time, the lack of childhood education had become an issue for the community, with many neighborhood children never receiving proper schooling. The School Board proved unresponsive, so families banded together to pay Mrs. William King to teach out of her home — 5501 3rd St. South. The schoolhouse grew quickly with an estimated fifteen children, ages six to twelve, attending Mrs. King’s class. By 1894, the School Board was persuaded to finally pay a teacher’s wage ($25 a month) if they furnished a new schoolroom, motivating the village school to move out of Mrs. King’s home. Though a short-lived location, 3rd Street was the catalyst for Glencarlyn’s public education. (more…)
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: What areas of Northern VA have the most and least expensive new construction homes?
Answer: The biggest and most expensive new builds in Northern VA are in Great Falls and Mclean. Prince William County offers the most affordability, along with the most house and land for your money.
The following data is based on MLS sales of new construction detached homes in Northern Virginia from 2025-June 1 2026.
Great Falls, Mclean, and Everybody Else
The small town of Middleburg is the only city with an average new home price over $3,000,000.
Dumfries and Bristow are the only Northern VA cities where the average new home costs less than $1,000,000
The average price for a new home in Vienna is $22,000 higher than Arlington
How Big Are New Homes?
Most new homes throughout Northern VA come in around 5,000-6,000 finished square feet
Mclean (8,450) and Great Falls (8,700) average nearly 2,000SF more than homes in Vienna, the city with the third largest average new home
Despite having significantly more room to build, homes in Loudoun County and Prince William County are constructed with a “modest” 4,800 finished SF
On average, 5,700 finished SF in Northern VA is filled with 5.4 bedrooms and 5.1 full bathrooms
If Yard and Privacy Matter the Most
The average new home in Prince William County sits on nearly 2.7 acres and provides new home buyers with the lowest cost per acre for a new home
Privacy in your new home is hard to come by in Arlington, Ashburn, Brambleton, Dumfries, and Bristow with average lot sizes under 0.2 acres
Great Falls (1.69) and Oakton (2.07) are the only jurisdictions within Fairfax County with an average lot size over one acre
In Northern VA, the average new home is built on 0.84 acres
This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: How does home value appreciation vary in Arlington by property type?
Answer: The Arlington VA housing market has appreciated by an average price of 49% and a median price of 39% over a ten-year period, but that appreciation is not evenly distributed across all property types.
Detached Homes Appreciate Over 60%
Those who spend the most on a home benefit from the highest appreciation rates, with detached home appreciation of 60%+ over the course of a decade, and new detached homes appreciating the most of any property type, at 65%.
Condos Appreciate 1-2% Annually
The worst performing category over ten years in Arlington is the one-bedroom condo, with appreciation close to 1% annually and just 15% over ten years. Two-bedroom condos perform moderately better, with an average annual appreciation closer to 2% at 28% over ten years.
Townhouses are the Goldilocks Property Type
More expensive than condos and less expensive than detached homes, townhouse/semi-detached properties fall right in the middle of cost and ten-year rate of appreciation, coming in at 40% over ten years. (more…)
