This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: What is the ratio of bathrooms to bedrooms in Arlington?
Answer: Somebody recently asked me what the bathroom-to-bedroom ratio is in Arlington and I ended up exploring Arlington market data through the lens of bedrooms. I might be the only person who finds this interesting but if you find yourself daydreaming about things like the number of bedrooms sold in Arlington and the cost per bedroom, than this is the article you’ve been waiting for!
What is a Bedroom?
Unlike many other jurisdictions, Arlington doesn’t have its own definition of a bedroom and defers to the Virginia Residential Building Code. I wrote about back in 2016, linked here. The Virginia requirements are pretty simple: minimum 70 SqFt, 7 Ft+ ceiling heights, proper egress window, heated, and ventilation.
Arlington’s Housing Market by Bedrooms
- Over the past five years, an average of 7,673 bedrooms have sold each year. 56% of bedrooms sold are in single-family homes, 25% in condos, and 19% in townhouse/duplex properties.
- There’s an average of 600 new bedrooms being delivered each year via new construction.
- The average cost per bedroom has decreased in 2023 causing an overall decrease in the cost per bedroom in Arlington, despite small increases in the cost per bedroom for single-family and townhouse/duplex homes.
- There are an average of 2.7 bedrooms in each home sold in Arlington. I expected to find that the number of bedrooms per transaction increased in the spring, suggesting that more larger homes are listed during the spring market, but the average size of homes by bedroom count is consistent each month of the year, always between 2.5 and 2.8 bedrooms per home sold.
- There is an average of .8 full bathrooms for every bedroom sold. The ratio for single-family detached homes is .73 full bathrooms per bedroom.
- The second table below shows data from 2022-2023 sales.
- The data suggests that 4BR homes are the most in demand, followed closely by 3BR and 5BR, and for good reason…4BR homes have the best cost per bedroom of any size home.
- If you are buying a home with 2-6 bedrooms, you’re most likely going to pay at or above the asking price.
- The most expensive zip code per bedroom is 22209 at $494,000/BR and the least expensive is 22204 at $244,000/BR. The average cost per bedroom in a single-family home in 22207 is $349,000.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Do I have to use my Property Manager if I sell my house?
Answer: This is more of a PSA post than anything else. If you’re a landlord or tenant, it’s crucial to pay attention to the fine print in agreements, especially regarding a future property sale. It’s common for Property Managers or Agents to include language that gives them the right to list your property if you choose to sell it or gives them a right to a commission in the event it sells during the rental period, to the tenant or somebody else.
Property Managers With Exclusive Right to Sell
Watch out for language granting property managers or agents exclusive rights to list your property if you decide to sell. This exclusivity restricts your options and flexibility, limiting your ability to explore alternative selling methods or use the agent of your choosing.
Required Commission Payments
Be aware of language stipulating a commission to property managers or agents if you sell your property to the tenant or another buyer during the rental period. Landlords might be obligated to pay a commission, even if they find an alternative buyer or wish to handle the sale independently. This financial burden can significantly impact both parties.
What If an Exclusivity or Commission Clause Exists?
Like most things in a contract, these clauses are negotiable. If you see something that you believe binds you to certain actions or payments in the event of a sale, ask about it and work to ensure you have the most flexibility if a sale does take place. You may not plan to sell when you sign the paperwork, but life happens and priorities change.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Do you have any advice on questions I should ask a Realtor I’m interviewing to sell my home?
Answer: Before you ask, yes, I used ChatGPT for this column, BUT I used it to come up with 50 questions AI thinks you should ask a Realtor so that I can offer you human brain questions that will hopefully be more useful.
Or… is that what AI would say if I told it to pretend like it was a human trying to convince readers an article wasn’t written by AI.
Without further ado, here are five questions (from my own non-AI brain) that will help you make the right decision about who is handling the sale of your home:
How Do Your Determine Price?
It’s impossible not to ask the agent you’re interviewing how much they think your house will sell for, and that’s totally fine, but don’t get wrapped up in an on-the-spot valuation of your home during the first appointment. Instead, it’s more important to understand the process your agent uses to determines pricing and decide if it’s an approach you’re bought into.
Who Will I Work With?
Agents and agent teams come in all shapes and sizes (link to past article on the topic), some are solo agents and some have a series of coordinators that handle each stage of your sale. In some cases, you may have little interaction with the agent you interview. It’s important to understand who will be involved in each step of the sale from determining/coordinating listing prep, to preparing the marketing, to negotiating contracts, and overseeing the contract-to-close.
Who Will Host the Open House(s)?
Open Houses are a great opportunity to interact with interested buyers, highlight strengths of the property, and collect valuable feedback. Open Houses are also a great source of new business for agents. Make sure that the interests of your Open House host(s) are aligned with your interest in selling your home.
How Often Do Deals Fall Through and What Happens If Things Go South?
Real estate deals go sideways in expected and unexpected ways so risk prevention (early identification and diffusion of problems) and management (handling of problems that arise) are critical attributes of a great agent. When things go south, a great agent has the resources to manage the most difficult deal-killers by tapping into brokerage leadership, legal resources, contractors, and having the experience, creativity, and leadership to put it all together.
Should I Consider Selling Off/Pre-Market?
It’s a great question and the answer is not the same for every home/homeowner. The right answer requires a deeper understanding of your goals, the market, and some good ol’ fashion critical thinking. There’s also a lot of different information out there about off/pre-market sales (some good, some misleading) so I think it’s a good topic to cover with your potential Realtor.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: How much of a difference do schools make in the value of homes in Arlington?
Answer: Nothing drives home values like schools and for most buyers around here, that is determined by the 10-point scale ratings on the all-powerful GreatSchools.org. Let me be clear, this article is not meant to validate or contest the quality of GreatSchools ratings, rather an acknowledgement of the weight the website’s school ratings have on home purchase decisions and therefore, home values.
Quick Tips for Using Schools in Your Home Search
- Families define a “good school” differently. Whether that’s test scores, socioeconomic diversity, language instruction, athletics, or a STEM focus think about what matters most to you and target schools that fit your values.
- GreatSchools offers more than just a single rating, they offer component data as well. Dig deeper and look at the components of a school’s rating and review them based on what you value.
- I have spoken to parents who have had both excellent and terrible experiences at top and low rated schools alike. The GreatSchools rating is not everything.
- There are excellent public resources available for research including the Virginia Dept. of Education’s School Quality Profiles and information nights for each school where you can see a school and interact with teachers first-hand.
- There are numerous message boards with loads of information about school operations from disability support, to college readiness, to athletics.
- There are other private ratings websites like Niche.com and US News and World Report that offer different perspectives and ways of ranking schools.
- Arlington County ranks as the #2 school district in Virginia, just behind the City of Falls Church, with an overall A+ grade. Loudoun County ranks # 5 and Fairfax County ranks #6 in Virginia with an overall A grades.
How Much Does Each GreatSchools Point Cost?
If you want to buy a detached house or townhouse within a top-rated school boundary, you’re going to pay a lot. However, if school ratings and budget are your top focuses, you can use the table below to figure out what the most efficient use of your budget is to maximize your GreatSchools rating per dollar spent.
The table is sorted by the average cost per point of the GreatSchools.org rating (GS rates schools on a 1-10 point scale) for each neighborhood school in Arlington with the most “cost-efficient” schools to buy a home in listed first.
The data uses sales since January 1, 2021 of detached and townhouse homes with at least three bedrooms. Net sold price is the sold price less any seller credits. Only the neighborhood schools are included in this analysis, not the magnet/option schools. Fleet and Arlington Science Elementary and Hamm Middle are not currently rated on GreatSchools.org
- The most cost-efficient elementary schools are Tuckahoe (9), Ashlawn (7), and Glebe (8)
- The most cost-efficient middle school is Swanson (7)
- The most-cost efficient high school is Wakefield (4)
- The most expensive school to buy housing in on a total cost basis is Jamestown Elementary (9), but the most expensive per bedroom and per square foot is Innovation Elementary (6)
- The least expensive school to buy housing in on a total cost and price per bedroom basis is Abingdon Elementary (3) and the least expensive per square foot is Carlin Spring Elementary (2)
- The most difficult school to find a 3BR+ detached/townhouse home is Hoffman-Boston (5)
- Barrett Elementary (3) is the only North Arlington school with an average price under $1M and Oakridge Elementary (4) is the only South Arlington school with an average price over $1M
- A purchase of a 3BR+ detached or townhouse home in the top rated school pyramid of Jamestown Elementary (9), Williamsburg Middle (9), and Yorktown High (6) averages nearly $1.45M and an average of $332k per bedroom
If you’d like some more personalized data run for you using home sales and GreatSchools ratings, you’re welcome to reach out to me at [email protected]. I’m happy to help.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Is it more effective to save for my kids’ college through a rental property investment or a more typical college savings plan like a 529?
TL;DR (1:53)
Answer: I often hear from parents who purchase a small investment property around the birth of their child as the primary savings vehicle for college. Some people swear by it. I did it when my son was born (and will report back with results in 13 years!).
I reached out to my financial advisor, Erik Fischer CFP, RICP of Taylor Financial ([email protected], (727) 417-3400), about the topic and he offered a very detailed, thoughtful comparative breakdown of using a real estate investment as a college savings tool vs a more traditional 529. Erik is an excellent resource if you have additional questions about this topic or other financial savings topics.
With frequency, this question arises from parents who gravitate towards real estate investing. And, there is not a definitive answer. Okay — column over. Just kidding. While it’s true that there is not a definitive answer, depending on your situation the answer may be definitive for you.
Identifying the parameters:
- First, establish a target — how much wealth do you want to save to pay for college?
- Then, consider the following key areas when comparing the two investment vehicles
- Savings strategy — how will you fund your savings vehicle
- Flexibility
- Level of involvement
- Associated risks
- Expected growth rate
- Tax implications
Establish your target:
The good news here is that your target will likely be the same regardless of which approach you choose. So here is an easy-to-follow framework of how to establish your target.
- Identify the amount you would like to have accumulated for each child when they reach college. You can research the “Cost of Attendance” (*important* this is your all-in cost, not just tuition) at www.collegeboard.org.
- Use the current cost of attendance for a school and inflate that amount to future dollars using an inflation rate of 5%. Inflate this number out until your child is likely to graduate college.
- Why 5%? This is somewhat arbitrary, but over the last 20 years college costs have been doubling or more the long-term average inflation rate of 2-3%. I encourage you to use a number somewhere from 5-8%.
- Take the last 4 years of inflation adjusted costs and add them up. These numbers represent a ballpark of what you could expect to pay for this child. Is it perfect? Of course not, but it will give you a greater level of visibility into what you will need.
Establish your target (example):
Let’s say your child was just born, plans are to attend college in 18 years, graduate in 4 years. At UVA, in-state cost of attendance for families making over $110,000 per year is $29,877 (tuition represents roughly half of this number). If you adjust for inflation and add up 4 years of all-in cost, you arrive at an aggregate number that includes the annual timeline of cashflows. See table below:
These calculations will vary whether you plan for in-state vs out-of-state, public or private, and how much of the cost you are willing to fund. Regardless, the framework will remain the same or very similar to arrive at some accumulation target.
You have your target, now what’s the best way to get there: Let’s compare a 529 based approach to a rental property-based approach. Of course, these are not the only two ways to save for college, but we’re focusing on these two today.
Let’s first look at the rental property approach: The high-level idea is buying a rental property when a child is born and selling it to fund college when the child is college-ready.
Because of the increased complexity of rental real estate (which is not inherently good or bad, it just is), let’s identify some of the important considerations first:
- Down payment will be required
- Management/execution risk
- cash flow planning
- property management
- tenant management
- increased tax planning
- increased insurance planning
- financing considerations (if you will require a mortgage)
- a plan to sell the property (to fund college)
So, you may have picked up here another hint at what the answer might be for you depending on your situation. That is, if you do not have the cash on hand to make a reasonable down payment for the type of property you desire, the rental property might be off table for you, at which point you might lean on an annual savings approach of a 529.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: How is the real estate market through the first quarter?
TL;DR (1:33)
Answer: “How’s the market?” Well, technically, that answer depends on what market you’re talking about — location, property type, price point, etc. but for this column, I’ll provide an overview of what we’re generally seeing in the Arlington/Northern Virginia/D.C. area market these days.
- The market is competitive
- Demand is moderately high
- New listing volume is historically low
- Rates (Hopefully) Heading Down
- Ignore National Data
The Market is Competitive
Multiple offers, escalations, and reduced or no contingencies are common.
The data visualization below is from the listings that went under contract each of the last two weeks at our brokerage, RLAH @properties, of ~400 agents in the greater D.C. Metro area.
Demand is Moderately High
Demand is lower now than it was from late 2020 through early 2022, due to high interest rates.
The chart below shows the quarterly absorption ratio for Northern Virginia over the past decade. A higher ratio equals higher demand. We’ve fallen slightly from the post-Amazon HQ2 year (this was primarily driven by the condo market) and Covid buying years, but demand is still well above the “norm” established from 2013-2018.
New Listing Volume is Historically Low
The lack of new listings is driving competition, not high demand.
The chart below highlights the dramatic drop in new listing volume for the D.C. Metro area for Q4 and Q1, with about 10,000 fewer homes listed for sale during the most recent Q4/Q1 compared to previous years, or a ~25-30% drop for most D.C. area localities.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: How many different real estate agents are there doing business in Arlington?
TL;DR (1:54)
Answer: There were 2,795 real estate transactions in Arlington last year, totaling $2.264B in sales volume. This is down from over 3,500 transactions in 2021 that totaled $2.786B in sales volume, but very similar to the 2019 and 2020 numbers.
There were 2,491 licensed real estate agents involved in at least one sale in Arlington in 2022. Each transaction usually includes two real estate agents — one representing the buyer and another representing the seller.
I looked over the 2022 Arlington transaction data and pulled out some interesting highlights below. Of note, there are many real estate teams that enter all sales under one agent’s name, so in these cases, individual numbers represent the production of many agents rolled into one agent’s name, but I don’t have transparency into that data. Here’s a link to an article I wrote in 2019 explaining how different agents/teams are structured.
- 63% of agents who did business last year in Arlington had just one sale in Arlington (many of those had more sales outside of Arlington) and accounted for 24.4% of the total sales volume
- 6% (65) of agents handled 10+ transactions in Arlington
- 36% (9) of agents handled 20+ transactions in Arlington
- 1,666 different agents represented buyers, 66 (4%) represented 5+ buyers
- 1,379 different agents represented sellers, 115 (8.3%) represented 5+ sellers
- The top 20% producing agents in Arlington accounted for 61% of sales volume
- Keri Shull and her team once again led Arlington in total transaction and sales volume, representing 2.7% of buyers and sellers in Arlington and just over $94M in total sales volume, but for the first time I can recall, we have new leaders in the listing category, with Betsy Twigg leading listing sales volume at $46.5M and Kay Houghton leading listing transactions at 58
- The highest average sale price with at least four transactions in Arlington is Julie Zelaska at more than $2.16M per sale
Most studies suggest that consumers are less concerned with measures like sales volume and more focused on the strength of communication and trustworthiness of the agent they’re working with, but market expertise and experience are still important factors for most people.
Many people see the low barrier to entry for real estate licensing, and the resulting high volume of agents, as a negative, but it also means that you have a lot of choices as a consumer and, with some effort, can make sure that you’re working with somebody who provides the type of service you’re looking for and the experience to match.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]ntial.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: I’m planning to sell my home to a builder to be torn down, do you have any advice?
TL;DR (1:37)
Answer: For many homeowners with older, smaller homes in expensive markets, selling to a builder is the easy and most profitable option when you’re ready to move. If you live in a home like this, you probably get hundreds of calls and letter from builders, investors, and real estate agents offering to buy your home as-is.
Here are six tips and ideas if you’re considering this option…
Don’t Overvalue Cash
The idea of somebody paying cash for your home sounds exciting and more reliable than somebody getting funds from a bank. “They pay cash” is one of the most common reasons I hear from homeowners explaining why they prefer selling to a builder.
The truth is that many builders don’t buy homes with a mountain of cash they have sitting around; they rely on strong banking relationships to finance their purchase with cash-like deals (the money is available quickly and easily).
The real value of cash is that a buyer can close quickly and does not require any bank approval, but a cash-like deal from a well-qualified buyer working with a great bank can often mirror this by removing any finance or appraisal contingency and closing as fast as the bank will allow (many can close in 2-3 weeks).
The contingency (or study period) structure and Earnest Money Deposit terms are more important than the funding source being a buyer’s private cash balance vs a trusted bank/lender. I would also argue that it’s more likely that an individual or builder cash-buyer will run into a cash crunch prior to closing than an established bank/lender.
Your Home May be Worth More to a Homeowner
It’s no secret how hard it is to find entry level homes these days. You may think that your current home with a small kitchen, old roof, and unfinished basement is only worth the land it sits on, but buyers are hurting for inexpensive homes, even if they need loads of improvements. Don’t assume that just because your home is small and dated that a builder is your only option.
Make sure you’re comparing builder offers to what you can get on the open market, taking into consideration other financial (e.g. differences in commission) and non-financial (e.g. timeline and showings) differences between the two routes. There may be little downside to testing the open market before committing to a builder, depending on your situation.
Your community will also appreciate your contribution to preserving the local tree canopy!
Builders Can Offer Attractive Rent-Backs
A rent-back means that you can live in your home after closing (aka after getting paid) for a specified period, usually for little or no cost, for months after a sale. For many sellers, this extra time is perfect for searching for your next home or apartment, with cash in-hand, or taking time to clear out decades of personal belongings.
A normal buyer can also offer a rent-back, and are often happy to, but if a home is being purchased using a mortgage for a primary residence, the buyer cannot offer a rent-back over two months. A builder, even if the funding comes from a bank, or cash buyer has no restriction on the length of rent-back. It’s well within reason to negotiate 3-4+ months of free or low-cost rent-back from a builder after closing.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: What effect do you think Missing Middle will have on the Arlington housing market and community?
Answer: As expected, Missing Middle (MM) aka Expanded Housing Options (EHO) passed unanimously on Wednesday March 22. In short, the new zoning laws will allow development of 2-6 units on any lots previously designated exclusively for one (single-family detached) unit, effecting a majority of Arlington, if certain minimum lot size/requirements are met. Here’s a link to Arlington’s press release with details.
TL;DR Video Summary (2:52)
There is so much to digest, investigate, and learn about what MM means for the Arlington community and housing market that will come together in the coming weeks, months, and years as we determine the best implementation of the new zoning code, learn more about how the County will permit MM housing, and most importantly, analyze how the market will respond to different MM products in different parts of the County.
Results will be positive for some, maddening for others. Some results will be expected and others a complete surprise. Over time, slowly, Missing Middle will change our community…but that’s the point.
I will dedicate many posts here to Missing Middle in the coming weeks, months, and years and would love to hear from you (homeowners, renters, investors, architects, community activists, and on) about what you’re seeing and learning as we go.
To kick things off, I’ll share some initial thoughts on the zoning details and answer some questions I’ve received.
What are the highlights?
The code requirements I find most relevant to how MM will be implemented are:
- MM is allowed in all residential single-family zoning districts (R-5, R-6, R-8, R-10, R-20) on conforming lots, meaning the lot meets the minimum size (total SqFt and avg width), with the exception that R-5 lots must be at least 6,000 SqFt instead of 5,000
- Same set-backs and coverage requirements apply as previous/existing requirements for single-family development so the maximum building envelops will be similar to what you see now for most new single-family construction
- Gross Floor Area (GFA), the total floor area (measured from exterior walls) less any garage space, maximums are determined by project density (
- number of units) and type (e.g. townhouse vs multi-plex) and will limit how big a project can be, even if the lot coverage and set-backs would allow for larger development (this effectively caps enormous development on large lots).
Where will MM be built?
Much of Arlington’s single-family housing was built prior to the 1960s and has been the target of builders and homeowners to tear down and build new homes for years. Missing Middle housing will follow a similar pattern of replacing existing older homes with new development.
We will likely see a concentration of MM development along transit corridors like Rosslyn-Ballston, Columbia Pike, Washington and Langston Blvd, and National Landing (Crystal/Pentagon City area) where multi-plexes (3-6 unit buildings) can sell for a premium, but MM development will also happen in neighborhoods outside of transit corridors, likely in the form of 2-3 unit offerings.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: How much has the market changed in the last six months?
TL;DR (0:56)
Answer: Sometimes I write columns for myself as the audience, this is one of them… I hope some of you find it as interesting as I do!
Four months ago, you couldn’t watch/read the news without hearing about the collapsing real estate market but by late January, it was obvious that low supply would prevent that from happening. Demand even prevailed through February rate spikes because 2023 was the first year that new listing volume in February was lower than January.
Market Whiplash from Q4 ’22 to Q1 ’23
It’s normal for the market to slow in Q4 and pick back up in Q1, but the change in market conditions from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023 was the most significant on record.
To get a sense of just how much of a shift we experienced between Q4 and Q1, I compared the key performance metrics of Net Sold (sold price less seller credits) to Original Asking Price percentage and the percentage of homes going under contract within ten days. I also compared all property types, condos, and detached/townhouse/duplex. Here are the highlights:
- Buyers lost about 6.3% of negotiation leverage on non-condos since Q4. I think that percentage accurately represents how much the market value of most non-condo properties has changed in just a few months.
- The performance data for non-condos is surprisingly similar for Q1 ’23 and in Q1 ’22, despite 2022 being the hottest market we’ve ever experienced.
- Market pace in Q4 was really slow, with less than 1/3 of non-condos going under contract within ten days. In Q1 that number has jumped to almost 71%.
- The condo market in Q1 ’23 is notably more competitive than it was in Q1 ’22, despite last year’s favorable market conditions (low rates). It took buyers a while to put the pandemic-led resistance to condos behind them, but it’s now clear that condo demand has returned.
Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there’s any supply relief in sight, with new listing activity trending at 10-20+ year lows so even moderate demand will create upwards pressure on prices and a fast-paced market. However, you can expect demand to ease up as summer approaches and you can always count softer demand in Q4.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Do you have any information on when the Toll Brothers community in Dominion Hills will be for sale?
TL;DR (0:43)
Answer: Construction is underway on Toll Brothers upcoming 9.5 acre community, The Grove at Dominion Hills, a massive (by Arlington/inside-the-beltway standards) development of 40 brand new detached homes that will start around $2M, formerly the site of the historically significant Febrey-Lothrop property.
As of Monday, March 13 they were fully framed and under-roof on their model and one of their “quick-move-in” homes, with a third in foundation, and a fourth getting ready for foundation; all along the existing N. Madison Street.
What I Know/Expect
Toll Brothers is as tight-lipped as it comes about new developments until their official public releases, but here’s what I know/expect:
- The community will include 40 new single-family homes
- Lot sizes will clock in around 60ft wide and about 8,000 SqFt (just over 1/6th of an acre), which is about 5% smaller than the average Arlington lot and about 10% bigger than the median Arlington lot (as we know from this column on Arlington lot sizes)
- I expect home sizes to range from about 3,500-5,500 total finished square feet depending on lot dimensions and options
- I expect most or all homes to include a two-car garage with either basement and main level entry depending on lot topography
- Toll Brothers will offer a combination of “quick move-in” homes with pre-selected options/finishes and semi-custom homes that allow buyers to choose from a pre-determined selection of elevations (exterior design), floor plans, options, and finishes
Details and Sales Opening Expected 2023
Toll Brothers is careful to not release pricing, floor plans, or most details about a project until their chosen public release date which is currently projected to occur in late summer 2023. Details will get released for the first time on their website with a community webpage. Sales are currently projected to start at the end of 2023, but that timing could easily move up or back depending on market conditions and work progress.
Toll Brothers determines their sales process based on market conditions and you can expect a multi-phased release, with prices increasing with each release (standard practice for new communities). Toll Brothers often uses a combination of option incentives and preferred lender incentives to drive demand, that smaller builders do not offer.
In my experience, they usually implement an appointment system on a first-come, first serve/meet basis. Those who register online for an appointment first, can schedule the first appointments with a sales rep and have the chance to lock in lots early so interested buyers should go into those meetings prepared to put down a deposit
Recently, and controversially, Toll Brothers implemented a blind auction system for lots at Arden, their luxury community in Great Falls. They set a starting price for a lot and had buyers submit forms stating how much they were willing to pay for the lot and what they wanted to build on it then chose the winner (presumably based on the highest lot bid).
If you’re an interested buyer, take advantage of the time between the public information release and the sales opening to learn as much about the community as possible, figure out what lots you prefer (note that the best lots usually come with a steep lot premium), compare your options with Toll Brothers to other new build opportunities, and be ready to make a decision with a lot-hold deposit at your first appointment.
