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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: Should I consider selling my home off-market?

Answer: The correct question is not whether you can buy/sell a home yourself (yes, you definitely can), rather what are the chances that you net a better result doing so. Last year, Bright MLS released a significant study comparing the results of on and off market sales and found homes sold “on-market” through the Bright MLS platform (link to article explaining what Bright MLS is) sold for 16.98% more than those sold off-market. It was an excellent first attempt at objectively comparing sales data between the two approaches, but there were some flaws in the methodology that received pushback.

2022 Study is Much Improved

In August, Bright MLS released a new, much improved study on the same topic with significantly more data and better methodology. They expanded the data set from 443,000 sales from 2019-2020 to 840,000 sales from 2019-Q1 2022, which means we added data from the peak real estate market of 2021-early 2022. They improved the methodology in several ways such as controlling for flips, new construction, sales between family members, and distressed sales and also significantly improved how they compared prices by analyzing property and neighborhood characteristics, not just by median prices.

On-Market Sales Sold for 13% More, Even more in D.C. Area

The study found that from 2019-Q1 2022, homes sold through the Bright MLS platform in the Mid-Atlantic sold for 13% more than those sold off-market and the returns were even greater when the market peaked in 2021 (14.8%) and Q1 2022 (19.7%). The D.C. area market saw even higher returns for on-market sales than the Mid-Atlantic (see chart below).

I think that one of the most important takeaways from this study is how significant the increase in returns were for on-market vs off-market sales when the market was at its peak from 2021-Q1 2022. There’s a clear trend that as the market became more favorable for sellers, and it became easier to sell a home than ever before, the difference in returns between on-market sales and do-it-yourself sales became significantly greater.

Office-Exclusives Also Struggle vs On-Market

The study also looked at office-exclusive sales whereby a property is marketed by the listing brokerage, exclusively to agents within the brokerage. As one might expect, the limited access to buyers through this approach also results in weaker performance.

In some cases, a seller may prefer the privacy of an office-exclusive to the returns of an on-market sale, but that trade-off must be fully understood.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

I would love to hear more from you in comments or by email ([email protected]) about your opinions on the availability of good real estate content — national or local market information, investing, best practices/how-to, etc.

Whether it’s content you’d like to see here in my column or content you wish you could access from other sources, I’d love to hear!

No matter how informed you are on the real estate market, how happy are you with the information/news you do receive?

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: I have recently seen two properties from Open Door listed for less than what they paid for it. Is that common for them or are these outliers?

Answer:

What is Algorithm-based Real Estate?

Algorithm-based buying and selling, also known as iBuying (2019 article here for more details), is when large companies/investors use algorithms (e.g. Zestimates) to assess a home’s value, purchase it (cash), and then resell it for a (hopeful) profit. These are arms-length transactions using corporate-level strategies rather than local ones.

The idea is that there are enough homeowners who value the ease and flexibility offered by iBuyers (cash, quick closings, no showings, etc) over getting a higher price that there’s billions in business for these companies (Open Door is currently valued over $3B). The acquisition and resale values of homes are determined by algorithms that these companies believe give them a clear picture of local markets across the country and competitive advantage at scale.

Zillow lost about $1B over 3.5 years using their pricing algorithms and shut down their iBuying business last year (article here for more details). After Zillow shuttered their iBuying business, it left Open Door as the biggest player in the industry. What makes them different than Zillow is that iBuying is their core business; for Zillow it was a supplemental revenue stream that risked hurting their core business.

I think the business in fundamentally flawed for many reasons, one of them being the massive disadvantages iBuyers are at during shifting market conditions. In strong markets, sellers can achieve the same or similar terms from everyday buyers and iBuyers are competing with everyday buyers on a house they haven’t seen, in a market they don’t know. In a weakening market (like we’re in now), properties they bought months earlier may be worth the same or less than they are when they’re being resold, so profits are smaller and losses much more common.

The greater D.C. Metro area is a relatively small, unattractive market for iBuying for multiple reasons, one being our diverse housing stock makes it difficult to value/project using algorithms; areas with large scale tract housing tend to much more popular with iBuyers (and corporate buy and hold investors) because it’s much easier to calculate market values.

How It’s Going…

As noted earlier, Zillow exited the iBuying business after ~$1B in losses over 3.5 years, leaving Open Door (market cap $3B+) as the main players in this category. I was curious how Open Door’s business is performing in Northern Virginia so I dug into their data from this year.

I looked at all of Open Door’s currently active (88), currently under contract (29), and sold (35) properties in 2022 and found 152 properties. I was able to find Open Door’s purchase price on 112 of those properties via public records.

Of the 112 homes I found Open Door’s purchase price on, the total acquisition price for these properties was $63,464,400, for an average of $566,646 per property, ranging from $207,100 to $1,031,800. If we assume their average purchase price held for the 40 properties I couldn’t find an acquisition price for, we can estimate their total acquisition price for all 152 properties in this data set (Northern Virginia sold in 2022 or currently under contract or listed for sale) to be $86,130,257.

Based on the analysis below, I think they may end up losing $5M-$6M+ on these investments.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: I’ve noticed a lot less homes being listed lately, will that continue for the rest of the year?

Answer: I hope everybody had a great holiday weekend! For those in the market to purchase, you’ll want to quickly shift out of vacation-mode and into house-hunting mode this week because you’ll see a lot more homes being listed for sale in the coming week(s) than you have over the last couple of months.

Historically, September comes in just behind March and June for new listing activity, with much of that front-loaded in the week or two following Labor Day weekend.

This follows a similar trend on the demand side where we see peak demand from roughly mid-March to early June, with a slowdown during the summer vacation months, followed by a brief spike in buying activity following Labor Day weekend with dwindling buyer interest through the remainder of the year.

However, the seasonal increase in September demand generally lags the pace of new inventory and thus results in the most average available listings for sale in September and October, before falling rapidly in November and December because the volume of new inventory drops by over 50%. For buyers, that means that the next 4-8 weeks will be your last chance at a wide variety of homes for sale until March.

Projected Surge in Available Inventory

As of 10 a.m. Monday, September 5, there are 369 homes listed for sales in Arlington and a whopping 42 homes in Coming Soon status, 34 of which are scheduled to hit the market within the next week. The homes in Coming Soon status will boost total inventory by nearly 10% and there are sure to be plenty of homes listed for sale over the next week that are not showing in Coming Soon.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: What is the difference between my individual condo insurance and the Association’s master insurance policy and do I need my own insurance?

Answer: Every condo association has its own (expensive) Master Insurance policy to cover the common elements and limited common elements, but there are substantial gaps between the association’s policy and what you’re personally liable for without an individual HO-6 policy. Most people shop for the cheapest, fastest individual insurance policy and apply just enough coverage to meet the lender’s requirements, but that may put you at financial risk.

To explain common gaps between master policies and HO-6 (individual condo) policies, I’d like to re-introduce Andrew Schlaffer, Owner and President of ACO Insurance Group. Andrew is an expert in Master Insurance policies and has helped multiple local condo association’s reduce their cost and improve their coverage since writing a column on the topic last year. If you’d like to contact Andrew directly to review your association’s master policy, you can reach him at (703) 595-9760 or [email protected].

Take it away Andrew…

Master Insurance vs Individual Insurance Policy

Nearly all master insurance policies in this area are written on a Single Entity basis which means coverage extends to general and limited common elements but also extends within individual units to fixtures, appliances, walls, floor coverings and cabinetry, but only for like kind and quality to that conveyed by the developer to the original owner.

Items not covered by the master insurance policy and are generally not the association’s responsibility include:

  • Personal Property (clothes, electronics, furniture, money, artwork, jewelry)
  • Betterments and Improvements (demonstrable upgrades completed after the initial conveyance)
  • Additional Living Expenses (the cost to live at a temporary location, storage fees, loss of rents)
  • Personal Liability (provides protection for bodily injury or property damage claims arising from your unit)
  • Loss Assessment (triggered only if there is a covered cause of loss and the master insurance policy limits are exhausted; this assessment would apply collectively to all unit owners)
  • Medical Payments (no fault coverage available for injured guests within your unit)

Condo owners should purchase an individual condo insurance policy (HO-6), which is also required by lenders. This policy can provide coverage for the items listed above.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Questions: We’re making an offer on a home that has been on the market for a few weeks and want to include contingencies, what is normal?

Answer: Contingencies can be used by buyers to reduce their risk in a real estate transaction by allowing them, in specifically defined scenarios, to renegotiate contract terms or cancel a contract without losing their Earnest Money Deposit. The three most common contingencies are the home inspection contingency, financing contingency and appraisal contingency.

The shift in market conditions over the last 3-4 months has meant adjusting from a market where most winning offers did not include any contingencies to a market where many buyers are able to include at least one or two contingencies, often all three.

This week I thought it would be helpful to refresh everybody’s understanding of the three most common contingencies and what protections they provide to buyers.

Home Inspection Contingency

  • Purpose: Allows buyers to hire a licensed home inspector who will provide a detailed assessment of a home’s condition and recommendations for repair, replacement and maintenance.
  • Structure: The inspection contingency offers two options. One being the ability to void the contract after the inspection and the second being the option to void and the option to negotiate for repairs or credits based on the results of the inspection.
  • Timeline: In most cases, I see inspection contingencies last 3-10 days and if there is a negotiation period, those often last 2- 5 days.

Financing Contingency

  • Purpose: Protects buyers if they do not get approved for their loan and allows them to void the contract or delay closing without losing their Earnest Money Deposit.
  • Structure: The financing contingency can either automatically expire at the end of the contingency period or extend to the closing date, unless the seller takes formal action to remove it after the contingency period ends.
  • Timeline: In most cases, I see financing contingencies last 10-24 days. It is a good idea to consult your lender on this timeline.

Appraisal Contingency

  • Purpose: Protects buyers in the event the property appraises for less than the contract purchase price. It allows a buyer the option to void, renegotiate or proceed.
  • Structure: In some cases, through a separate addendum, buyers may agree to waive a specified difference between the appraised value and purchase price and make the appraisal contingency only if the appraisal value is below a certain number.
  • Timeline: In most cases, I see appraisal contingencies last 10-24 days. It is a good idea to consult your lender on this timeline.

As a buyer, it is important to understand that the use of, structure, and timeline of contingencies in your offer play a significant role in how a seller responds to your offer.

In some cases, contingencies (or lack of) may have a greater influence on negotiations and a seller’s response than price, so it is important to approach contingencies thoughtfully and strategically based on your interest in a home, days on market, and an assortment of other factors.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: Are you seeing different patterns in the housing market slowdown in different parts of the region?

Answer: In September 2020, I wrote an article highlighting how extreme the differences were between the demand shift in Arlington compared to outer suburbs like Fairfax and Loudoun County.

In short, Arlington was competitive before the COVID surge and the outer suburbs lagged far behind it, but once the COVID surge began, Arlington became moderately more competitive while the outer suburbs experienced an extreme shift in market conditions, becoming more competitive than Arlington in just a few months.

Fast-forward two years and we are seeing something of a rubberband-effect as the entire housing market slows down, with noticeable shifts in all markets, but more extreme shifts in the outer suburbs. Not that we are witnessing anything close to a crash, the market is still good for sellers, but very different than what we’ve seen the last two years.

Note: this analysis focused on the single-family/detached housing market, not condos or townhouses.

Outer Suburbs Slowing Faster, Arlington King of Stability

Months of Supply (MoS), a measure of supply and demand that calculates how long existing inventory levels will last based on the current pace of demand (lower levels favor sellers), tells the story better than any other metric.

In the charts below, you can see our regional story of the pre-COVID, COVID and current real estate market play out:

  • Competition in the outer suburbs generally trailed the D.C. and Arlington markets, offering buyers more time and leverage in their purchase decisions.
  • After Amazon announced HQ2 in November 2018, MoS in Arlington dropped sharply as demand picked up and supply dropped, with a more modest, lagging effect on the surrounding markets.
  • The COVID market from roughly summer 2020-spring 2022 sent MoS lower (favorable to sellers) in all markets, but the drop in MoS in outer suburbs was more extreme, pushing those markets well below Arlington and D.C., making them extraordinarily competitive.
  • As of July 2022, MoS in the outer suburbs was still lower than Arlington and D.C., but rapidly increasing. The year-over-year increase in MoS in Loudoun County was 94.4%, nearly double what it was in July 2021. The increases in MoS were 67.4% (DC), 41.6% (Fairfax Co), and 27.8% (Arlington).
  • You can see the steadiness and strength of the Arlington housing market play out over the past five years in these two charts.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: How much of an effect do expensive new construction homes have on the average prices in Arlington?

Answer: A couple of weeks ago I offered a mid-year review of the single-family housing (SFH) market in Arlington and average prices were a focal point. This week, we’ll look at some pricing data with and without new construction included to understand how much new builds influence our average prices. Please note that the data used below is based on new construction sales entered into the MLS and accounts for most, not all new construction sales.

New Construction Prices High, Effect Limited

So far in 2022, a new SFH home has sold for an average of nearly $1,000,000 more than resales. Sales of new SFHs have accounted for 9% of total sales but only account for a 6.8% increase in Arlington’s average home value. The numbers were similar last year.

22207 Dominates New Construction Sales

Since 2018, the 22207 zip code has accounted for 54% of all new SFH sales in Arlington and so far in 2022, 22207 has accounted for 60.3% of new SFH sales. In 2022, new home sales have accounted for 14% of all sales in 22207 and are responsible for increasing the average home price in 22207 by $120,000.

Average New SFH Nearly $2.2M

In 2021, the average new SFH crossed over $2M for the first time and after a 7% increase in average prices so far in 2022, the average new SFH is nearly $2.2M. There are still some markets where you might find a new house under $2M including 22205 where lots, and thus homes, tend to be smaller than neighboring North Arlington zip codes.

The 22204 zip code far out-paced other zip codes in average price appreciation for new SFH, increasing by 15% from 2021 to 2022. I expect similar double-digit growth in new construction prices in 22204 for another year or two until the gap between 22204 and other Arlington neighborhoods gets tighter.

So far in 2022, new SFH outside of 22204 is selling for an average of over $2,273,000, which is 45.1% higher than new homes in 22204. The percentage gap of average prices of resale homes in 22204 versus other Arlington zip codes is similar, at 48%.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: Have you already seen interest rates increase since last week’s announcement that the Federal Reserve is increasing rates by .75%?

Answer: Contrary to popular belief, the news you read about the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates does not directly result in changes to the interest rates you get on your mortgage. The Federal Funds Rate is the rate that large banks charge each other for short-term, overnight loans and is one of the many market factors that influence the interest rate you get on a mortgage.

Fed Rate Up, Mortgage Rates Down

Last week, on Wednesday July 27, the Federal Reserve announced they were increasing the Federal Funds Rate by .75%. Many people I spoke with thought this meant that mortgage rates would immediately or quickly increase by a similar amount, however, the reality was that the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate, per Mortgage News Daily, decreased from 5.54% on Wednesday July 27 to 5.22% on Thursday July 28, one day after the announcement.

As of yesterday, MND’s research showed that the average 30yr fixed rate had dropped even more to 5.05%.

Mortgage Rates Are Market-Driven, Like Stocks

Mortgage rates operate like stocks in that they are constantly (daily) moving up and down as they react to changes in the domestic and global markets. In theory, mortgage rates, like stocks, are supposed to reflect the valuation of all current and future market information to determine the cost of borrowing money each day.

What the Fed Rate Means for Your Mortgage Rate

What does that mean in relation to your mortgage rate and the highly publicized Fed Funds Rate?

The Federal Reserve meets eight times per year to set monetary policy, including making any changes to their target Fed Funds Rate.

Prior to those meetings, financial experts are constantly adjusting their expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate announcements and those expectations are embedded on a daily basis into mortgage borrowing rates, so the most significant rate changes occur when expectations aren’t met or surprising guidance is issued by the Fed during these meetings (keep in mind, this isn’t the only information banks use to determine mortgage rates).

Heading into last week’s announcement, I read that mortgage rates, stocks and other market instruments were priced with a roughly 80% expectation of a .75% increase in the Fed Funds Rates and a roughly 20% expectation of a 1% increase, so when the announcement was made confirming a .75% increase and guidance was given suggesting the Fed will soon be able to slow their rate increases, market instruments reacted in a mostly positive way, which resulted in mortgage rates decreasing because the outcome was weighted towards expectations for lower future rate increases (.75% instead of 1% and slowing future increases).

The next scheduled Federal Reserve announcement on the Federal Funds Rate is scheduled for September 21, you’ll see mortgage rates react daily based on new economic data on inflation, growth, unemployment, global threats, etc that will all influence how the Federal Reserve responds during their next meeting.

Mortgage Rate Forecasts

There’s one thing I’ve learned over the years about mortgage rate forecasts… they’re always wrong. You can see how much of a difference there is in forecasts from the experts in this recent Forbes article, with expectations for 2022 rates ranging from ~5-7% to a technical version of a shoulder shrug.

With that said, if you’re seeing news about inflation coming under control and we avoid new major global supply chain disruptions, odds are that mortgage rates will gradually come down through the end of the year.

However, none of that is guaranteed as we find ourselves in a constant state of global and economic volatility and disruption, factors that generally cause instability and increases in mortgage rates.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: How did the Arlington single-family home market perform in the first half of 2022?

Answer: We have reached two years of the average single-family home (SFH) in Arlington selling for over the asking price, but like the rest of the economy, things are finally cooling down. However, the “cool-down” data won’t start showing up for another month or two and the data you’ll see here, a review of the first half of 2022, reflects what was mostly a red-hot market.

More Competitive, Less Price Growth?

By nearly all measures, the first half of 2022 was more competitive than the first half of 2021, yet we got lower average and median price growth in ’22 than in ’21, compared to the first half of the year prior.

The competition in the first half of 2022 was unlike anything we’ve seen in Arlington before with the average SFH selling for 4.2% more than the asking price, compared to an average of 1.8% over ask in the first half of 2021. In 2022, an insane 79% of homes sold within the first 10 days on market, compared to 70% in 2021 and 73% of homes sold at or above asking price in 2022, compared to 66% in 2021.

With such intense demand, one would expect to see higher price growth in 2022 than in 2021, but that’s not the case. The average and median price change in the first half of 2022 was 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively, compared to the first half of 2021. From 2020 to 2021, the average and median price change was 9.6% and 16.6%, respectively.

I think the reason for conflicting demand and appreciation data is two-fold. First, the 2021 appreciation is based on the first half of 2020, which included the first few months of COVID lockdowns when the market basically froze, so those prices may have been somewhat artificially deflated. However, the counter argument to that is comparing the first half 2020 prices to 2019 prices, we got a healthy 5% appreciation in average price.

The second reason, and this is just a theory, is that by 2022 the market (sellers and listing agents) knew that buyers were accustomed to paying significantly over the asking price and thus set more conservative (lower) asking prices to ensure competition instead of setting prices that were more reflective of actual/likely market values. Doing so would artificially inflate some demand measures without causing a coinciding explosion in prices.

Since the beginning of the pandemic in the first half of 2020, the market has experienced the following:

  • Median price increased by $225,000 or 23%
  • Average price increased $197,000 or 17.5%
  • Average seller credit (towards buyer closing costs) decreased by 75%
  • The number of homes sold for $2M+ increased from 5% to 11% of total sales
  • The number of homes sold for under $1M decreased from 53% to 31% of total sales

22205 Leads Growth, 22201 Still Most Expensive

The 22201 and 22207 zip codes remain significantly more expensive than other Arlington zip codes as the only two with an average price higher than the county-wide average. The 22205 zip code has benefitted from tremendous growth over the past five years and led the way in the first half of 2022 price growth, adding 12.7% to its 2021 first half average.

After gaining 19.8% in 2021, 22204 settled back down to a 5.1% increase on average price in 2022 and remains the only zip code with an average price below $1M, but with more new construction popping up throughout the 22204 neighborhoods, I don’t expect the sub-$1M average price to last much longer.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: How did the Arlington condo market perform in the first half of 2022?

Answer: It has been quite a ride for the Arlington condo market over the past four years!

After a long stretch of relatively little appreciation from ~2013-2018, the condo market surged on the November 2018 news of Amazon HQ2 and then flatlined when COVID lockdowns began in the spring of 2020. Beginning in the summer of 2020, condo inventory flooded the market in record volume, causing the market to soften and prices to drop.

Conditions were improving by the summer of 2021 as demand picked up. By early 2022, competition return to the market with more multiple offers and escalations. The competition didn’t last long, as the entire housing market began to slow due to high interest rates and worsening economic conditions.

After much volatility in the condo market since late 2018, I think we are finally seeing signs of the market finding its natural balance — moderately favorable for sellers, while providing buyers with a range of options and the occasional opportunity for a discount.

Let’s look at the stats behind the first half of the 2022 Arlington condo market…

Pace of New Inventory Evens Out

From 2013-2018, the Arlington condo market averaged ~500 and ~700 new listing in the first and second quarter, respectively. Those numbers dropped off a cliff in 2019 and 2020 because people chose to hold properties because of Amazon’s announcement (Q1 2019-Q1 2020) and then held in Q2 2020 because nobody knew what to do when COVID hit. Then the pace of inventory surged at a record-shattering pace from the summer of 2020 through the end of 2021.

Inventory levels finally came down to earth, closer to their 2013-2018 averages, with 576 and 651 new condo listings in the first and second quarters of 2022, respectively.

Supply/Demand Levels Back to Normal-ish

With the easing of new inventory volume and demand coming back to level, Months of Supply (a measure that combines supply levels with the pace of demand) has returned to levels more in-line with pre-Amazon years and what I would consider to be the Arlington condo market’s natural balance.

Housing economists consider six months of supply to be a truly balanced market for buyers and sellers, but we rarely see a sub-market around here that gets close to six months. 1.5-2 months of supply is a favorable market for sellers, but it usually takes less than one month of supply for multiple offers and escalations to become a common occurrence.

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