On the eve of Super Tuesday, local party leaders, political consults and pundits on both sides of the aisle have already agreed on who the Republican and Democratic nominees for president will be.
One question lingering in the minds of many is whether the D.C. suburbs, including Arlington, can offer any indication of whether candidates are gaining or losing sufficient suburban voters to impact the general election.
“We had presidential election-style turnout in 2021 in Virginia, partly based on suburban voters in Northern Virginia and outside Richmond,” Arlington GOP Chair Matthew Hurtt told ARLnow. “Both campaigns will surely be focused on engaging and turning out those voters and, so we’ll see ads on abortion, we’ll see ads on things happening in our school system, and it’ll be up to them.”
When the polls open tomorrow (Tuesday) at 6 a.m., voters in Virginia and 14 other states will have the opportunity to cast their in-person ballots for the nominees of both major parties until the polls close at 7 p.m. Because Virginia operates an open primary system, registered voters are not required to cast their ballots according to party affiliation.
As of today (March 4), the following Republican and Democratic presidential candidates are on the ballot in Virginia:
- Ryan Binkley (R)
- Chris Christie (R)
- Nikki Haley (R)
- Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)
- Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
- Donald J. Trump (R)
- President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D)
- U.S. Rep. Dean Benson Phillips (D)
- Marianne Williamson (D)
(Note: Republicans Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron Desantis have suspended their respective campaigns but have not formally withdrawn from the race in Virginia.)
Despite the slim chances of a Republican presidential contender winning Arlington in the general election, Republicans are hoping that enough support from moderate Republicans and independents in D.C. suburbs could influence the general election outcome in Virginia.
No Republican candidate has captured a majority of the vote in Arlington County since Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, according to county voting records. Since then, the political divide has only widened, with Arlington solidifying its reputation as a stronghold of liberal politics.
Nevertheless, local Republican leaders point to a slight uptick in Republican engagement in Arlington. Gov. Glenn Youngkin netted nearly 5,300 more votes in the November 2021 general election than Republican candidate Ed Gillespie received in 2017, an increase of nearly four percentage points, per voting records.
So far, early voting numbers suggest a low turnout for the upcoming primaries. Out of 158,145 registered voters, about 8,000 have already voted early, either in person or by mail. Of these, 5,689 were for Democratic candidates and 2,000 for Republican candidates, per the county’s Election Dashboard.
Local Republican campaign strategist Andrew Loposser says the lack of participation is likely a consequence of a lack of motivation among Republican voters, who are discouraged by the presence of a clear frontrunner.
“They don’t care that much because they know Trump is going to be the nominee,” he says.
Democratic party officials in nearby counties, including Fairfax, have also voiced concerns about voter turnout among Democrats. However, Arlington Democratic Committee Chair Steve Baker says he’s confident that the Democratic base will turn out to support Biden’s record and show opposition to his likely general election opponent, Trump.
“When we talk to voters, we see a lot of energy and excitement around all the accomplishments that Joe Biden has accomplished in the last four years,” Baker told ARLnow. “Whether it’s the [bipartisan] infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, the PACT Act, CHIPS Act, student debt relief — up to $1.2 billion in student debt relief.
“And on the other side, we have a presumptive Republican nominee, who has said that he will be a dictator on day one and has taken credit for the Dobbs decision,” he continued.
Lately, Trump has shown substantial gains in several national polls, leading the incumbent by several percentage points. Still, one statewide poll released Friday from the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College shows Biden leading Trump in Virginia by four percentage points.
The president has an uphill battle to climb with voters worried about his age and policy stances on issues such as the war in Gaza, says Jeremy Mayer, an associate professor at George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.
“You will not have an easy win over Trump if your candidate is Biden,” Mayer told ARLnow.
While primaries usually see lower turnout, Mayer highlights that this election cycle has particularly shown that voters are seizing the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with both frontrunners by voting for alternatives such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or opting for no candidate in the case of the Michigan and Nevada primaries.
Haley hasn’t fared well in most of the Republican primaries, having lost all of them except for D.C. over the weekend to her Republican rival. She has made enough of a splash to keep her in the race, a trend that Mayer says may continue in Virginia, given the more moderate leanings of Republicans in places like Arlington.
“I think Haley’s going to do better in Virginia than she will in most other Super Tuesday states, and that’s because her brand of slightly more moderate and a lot less MAGA,” he said, adding that people in the D.C. area, many of whom work for or depend on contracts from the federal government, may also be wary about Trump’s threats to reduce the federal government’s size if elected.
Conversely, Hurtt thinks Haley’s refusal to endorse Trump has turned off many voters who previously voted for Trump but are on the fence.
“Nikki Haley is expressly ‘Never Trump’ in her campaign style, and that would have turned off a lot of people who did vote for Trump once or twice but wanted to give somebody else another shot this time,” he said.
Hurtt did not give a projection of which Republican contender will likely come out on top in Arlington. But Loposser acknowledges that Haley, who just held a rally last week in Falls Church after campaigning in Richmond, will likely claim Arlington and possibly surrounding counties in the Republican primary. It’s just a question of how much she will win or lose by.
“I think she’ll win the eighth congressional district based on previous voting habits,” he said. “Looking at the data… [Sen.] Marco Rubio won this area in 2016 [with 49.5%]… Trump did the [third] best by about 16.8%, But I think Haley fits that Rubio-type mold of a Republican around here, we see. “
Mayer points out that Haley’s performance in Northern Virginia might keep her in the race. The crucial question remains: If Haley drops out or if Trump secures the nomination, where will her voters turn — to Trump, to Biden, to a third-party candidate in protest, or will they abstain from voting in the general election?
Baker and Hurtt are confident that their respective frontrunners will attract more independent and moderate voters to their camps.
Mayer emphasizes that either way, both parties have considerable work ahead of them in convincing the general electorate to vote one way or the other.
“The question that this election will revolve around is: Are you more worried about having a president who will be the oldest in history? Or are you more worried about the pathologies that Trump has shown ever since 2015?” he said.