President Joe Biden and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley won the majority of votes in Arlington in yesterday’s Virginia presidential primary.
However, the low voter turnout in both primaries might serve as a warning sign for both Biden and the now clear Republican frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, of a lack of voter enthusiasm.
Of Arlington’s 179,095 registered voters, 31,418 participated in the Super Tuesday primary, per the Virginia Department of Elections. Biden won the majority of Democratic votes, receiving 14,637 votes (89.3%), while Haley led the Republican field with 10,957 votes (73.7%), far outpacing Trump, who received 3,538 votes (23.8%).
Haley achieved double-digit victories in almost every Arlington precinct, with the exception of the Arlington Mill neighborhood, where Trump outpaced her by nine votes. Biden comfortably won all precincts, with his nearest competitor, Marianne Williamson, seldom securing more than 15% of the vote in a precinct.
Despite making substantial gains in Northern Virginia, including victories in Fairfax County and Alexandria, Haley’s efforts fell short of a statewide win. Trump comfortably won in Virginia — and 12 other Super Tuesday states — with 434,945 votes (63.3%) as of today, compared to Haley’s 238,054 (34.6%).
Biden secured 306,845 out of 345,927 votes statewide (88.4%) with nearly all localities reporting. Comparatively, he received 705,834 votes out of the 1.3 million cast statewide (53.3%) in the 2020 presidential primary, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
National media outlets have reported that Haley plans to suspend her campaign this morning after she was severely defeated in most Republican primary elections across the country, though she did win Vermont last night and D.C. on Sunday.
Local election experts and party leaders closely watched Haley and Biden’s performance in D.C. suburbs, including Arlington, to gauge suburban dissatisfaction with the presidential front-runners.
While Haley and Biden’s comparatively more moderate politics won out in Arlington, the low turnout could be a sign voters are not satisfied with their choices.
On the eve of Super Tuesday, local party leaders, political consults and pundits on both sides of the aisle have already agreed on who the Republican and Democratic nominees for president will be.
One question lingering in the minds of many is whether the D.C. suburbs, including Arlington, can offer any indication of whether candidates are gaining or losing sufficient suburban voters to impact the general election.
“We had presidential election-style turnout in 2021 in Virginia, partly based on suburban voters in Northern Virginia and outside Richmond,” Arlington GOP Chair Matthew Hurtt told ARLnow. “Both campaigns will surely be focused on engaging and turning out those voters and, so we’ll see ads on abortion, we’ll see ads on things happening in our school system, and it’ll be up to them.”
When the polls open tomorrow (Tuesday) at 6 a.m., voters in Virginia and 14 other states will have the opportunity to cast their in-person ballots for the nominees of both major parties until the polls close at 7 p.m. Because Virginia operates an open primary system, registered voters are not required to cast their ballots according to party affiliation.
As of today (March 4), the following Republican and Democratic presidential candidates are on the ballot in Virginia:
- Ryan Binkley (R)
- Chris Christie (R)
- Nikki Haley (R)
- Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)
- Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
- Donald J. Trump (R)
- President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D)
- U.S. Rep. Dean Benson Phillips (D)
- Marianne Williamson (D)
(Note: Republicans Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron Desantis have suspended their respective campaigns but have not formally withdrawn from the race in Virginia.)
Despite the slim chances of a Republican presidential contender winning Arlington in the general election, Republicans are hoping that enough support from moderate Republicans and independents in D.C. suburbs could influence the general election outcome in Virginia.
No Republican candidate has captured a majority of the vote in Arlington County since Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, according to county voting records. Since then, the political divide has only widened, with Arlington solidifying its reputation as a stronghold of liberal politics.
Nevertheless, local Republican leaders point to a slight uptick in Republican engagement in Arlington. Gov. Glenn Youngkin netted nearly 5,300 more votes in the November 2021 general election than Republican candidate Ed Gillespie received in 2017, an increase of nearly four percentage points, per voting records.
So far, early voting numbers suggest a low turnout for the upcoming primaries. Out of 158,145 registered voters, about 8,000 have already voted early, either in person or by mail. Of these, 5,689 were for Democratic candidates and 2,000 for Republican candidates, per the county’s Election Dashboard.
Local Republican campaign strategist Andrew Loposser says the lack of participation is likely a consequence of a lack of motivation among Republican voters, who are discouraged by the presence of a clear frontrunner.
“They don’t care that much because they know Trump is going to be the nominee,” he says.
Democratic party officials in nearby counties, including Fairfax, have also voiced concerns about voter turnout among Democrats. However, Arlington Democratic Committee Chair Steve Baker says he’s confident that the Democratic base will turn out to support Biden’s record and show opposition to his likely general election opponent, Trump.
“When we talk to voters, we see a lot of energy and excitement around all the accomplishments that Joe Biden has accomplished in the last four years,” Baker told ARLnow. “Whether it’s the [bipartisan] infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, the PACT Act, CHIPS Act, student debt relief — up to $1.2 billion in student debt relief.
“And on the other side, we have a presumptive Republican nominee, who has said that he will be a dictator on day one and has taken credit for the Dobbs decision,” he continued.
With ranked-choice voting now the go-to method for local primaries in Arlington, the County Board is also considering using it for the November general election.
This Saturday, the Board plans to hold a public hearing to decide whether to use the voting method, also known as RCV, in the County Board election this fall to fill Chair Libby Garvey’s soon-to-be-vacant seat — the only one expected to be empty.
Five candidates are currently vying for Garvey’s seat, including first-time candidate and Planning Commissioner Tenley Peterson, second-time candidates J.D. Spain, Sr. and Natalie Roy, first-time candidate Julie Farnam, and former State Senate candidate James DeVita. To win the nomination, a candidate must get a 51% majority.
A county report argues that using RCV in November will allow the Board to assess how well the new electoral system is received and decide on its potential expansion in future general elections.
If adopted, RCV — a process in which voters rank candidates by preference — would not apply if more than one County Board seat is up for grabs. More time is needed to introduce, clarify and debate RCV as an election method for two or more open seats, the report says
Arlington County piloted RCV in last year’s primary after a 2022 survey showed majority support among residents. The Virginia General Assembly approved a measure in 2020 that allows localities to adopt RCV for elections to a county board, board of supervisors or city council.
In December, the Board endorsed ranked-choice voting as the default for Arlington’s primary elections.
Despite positive feedback from voters about the new system during the June 2023 primary, the Board chose not to use it for the 2023 general election. Members cited concerns over the quality of outreach to voters about the new system, particularly among communities of color, renters and young people.
The county plans to use its current voting machines for the County Board primary this June, but has allocated $2 million in the 2025 budget for new machines capable of handling more than three ranked-choice options.
Two new candidates for Arlington County Board have emerged — one is new to the ballot, while another is returning.
Last night (Wednesday), first-time candidate and current Planning Commissioner Tenley Peterson and second-time candidate J.D. Spain, Sr. announced their bids for the seat Chair Libby Garvey will vacate at the end of the year.
They will go up against Natalie Roy — who had Garvey’s support during the last Board race — as well as first-time candidate Julie Farnam and former State Senate candidate James DeVita in the Democratic primary on June 18.
Garvey has spoken highly of Peterson but tells ARLnow she is withholding endorsements this early in the campaign.
“There is so much to love about Arlington but our region is changing,” Peterson, a substitute teacher in Arlington Public Schools and consultant for nonprofits, said during the Arlington Democrats meeting at Lubber Run Community Center last night.
“We must be intentional about how we grow and adapt, ensuring it works for all Arlingtonians,” she continued.
Peterson outlined her priorities, including tackling housing shortages, climate change and educational disparities, while improving Arlington’s social safety net. She said she supported the Missing Middle/Expanded Housing Options zoning ordinance changes but still wants to see more transit-oriented development, too.
A self-described progressive Democrat and with experience on budget and planning issues, Peterson spent eight years reviewing budgets on the Fiscal Affairs Advisory Commission, including four as chair.
She joined the Planning Commission in 2019 and chaired community engagement for Amazon’s HQ2 project, supporting contributions to affordable housing, a new community park and a home for Arlington Community High School.
“I know how Arlington works,” she says on her website. “I’m a consensus builder who listens, brings people to the table, and finds solutions that work. I want to find common ground, so Arlington can continue to move forward and function as a place we can be proud of.”
Spain, a veteran and former president of the Arlington branch of the NAACP, announced his bid in an email newsletter to supporters, shared with ARLnow.
“I am running for public office because I believe in the fundamental principles of democracy, equality, and justice. I am running to be your representative and your champion in the pursuit of a safe, healthy, prosperous, and sustainable Arlington for all,” he said in the newsletter.
His said his top campaign issue is “ensuring the well-being and safety of our community.”
“As your representative, I will prioritize policies and planning initiatives to strengthen our public health infrastructure, expand access to healthcare services, and address the underlying social drivers of health,” he said, emphasizing investments in mental health and substance use education among students.
He is also campaigning on tackling rising economic security — by promoting job creation, supporting small businesses and taking on housing initiatives. Spain also spoke of the need to address climate change locally.
The New Hampshire primary is today, and Virginia’s presidential primary is six weeks away.
After former president Donald Trump’s record-setting win at the Iowa caucuses, all eyes are on New Hampshire to see if his remaining major opponent, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, can make it a competitive race.
While Trump consolidates support within the party, the Never-Trump faction of the GOP is rallying around Haley. And they might also be secretly hoping to get some help from across the aisle.
Virginia is among a number of states that hold an open primary, meaning that Democrats can vote in the Republican party and vice-versa.
“Virginia is an open primary state meaning that voters do not register by political party,” notes the Arlington County elections website. “Any registered voter is eligible to vote in any primary election. If both the Democratic and Republican parties hold primaries on the same day, voters must choose which party ballot they wish to vote, per Virginia Code § 24.2-530.”
The Democratic race, meanwhile, remains moribund, with challengers to President Biden mostly polling in the single-digits. A non-competitive Democratic race may — in theory, at least — drive a few more voters over to the more dynamic GOP primary, particularly Dems dead set against another Trump presidency.
So whether you vote on Super Tuesday, March 5, or vote early — in-person early voting started Jan. 19 in Arlington and ballot drop boxes opened yesterday — this morning we’re wondering which primary are you planning on voting in?
Ranked-choice voting could soon become the default for Arlington County Board primaries in Arlington.
This weekend, the County Board is set to approve the voting method, in which residents rank candidates in order of preference. If approved, next year — when one County Board seat is up for grabs — participants in the June primary will fight to secure a 51% threshold to secure a nomination.
Voters got a taste of the voting method during the County Board primary this June, which featured a full slate of candidates jockeying for one of two nominations from Arlington Democrats. The nominees, Susan Cunningham and Maureen Coffey, were the first to secure 34% thresholds after six run-off rounds that eliminated bottom vote-getters.
In an election seen as a referendum on the Missing Middle zoning policies, local elections buffs pointed to the results as proof ranked-choice voting, or RCV, could better reflect a divided electorate, with Cunningham more opposed to it than Coffey, though both had criticism of its roll-out. Both women went on to win their campaigns this November and will be sworn in next month.
Still, County Board members were not totally on board. A month after the primary, after praising Arlington’s Dept. of Elections for how it handled the roll-out, Board members punted on adopting it for the general election. They expressed concerns about how votes are counted when two seats are up and the quality of outreach to voters about the new system, particularly people of color, renters and young people.
The County Board ultimately decided to adopt ranked-choice voting for County Board primaries only. This was an unpopular opinion among the 2,278 people who shared their thoughts on RCV with the county.
Only 7% said it should be reserved for primaries, compared to 47% who said it should be implemented in every election and 32% who said no elections should use the method.
Overall, most county survey respondents — about 70% — said their experience with RCV was either “positive,” “exceptional” or “fair,” while 29% said it was “negative.” About 75% reported having heard about it and being familiar with how it worked, and those who did report familiarity overwhelmingly said they learned about it through the news.
(An unscientific ARLnow poll found that 75% of readers reported not being confused by RCV.)
Making the change will cost $2 million, as the county intends to buy new ballot machines that allow voters to rank more than the three choices they can rank today. The current machines will be used in the the June 2024 County Board primary but will be switched out in the 2025 fiscal year.
Should the County Board decide to use ranked-choice voting for a general election, it must formally adopt its use at least 90 days before the election.
(Updated at 9:40 a.m. on 6/26/23) The ballots have all been counted and the results are finalized: Maureen Coffey and Susan Cunningham are the Democratic nominees for the Arlington County Board.
The results, released at 3:15 p.m. today (Saturday), culminated Arlington’s trial run of ranked-choice voting method. Eyes across the state were reportedly on Arlington, which the state legislature allowed to use the process for County Board elections one year before extending the right to the rest of the Commonwealth.
At noon today, Arlington election officials adjudicated the remaining 135 provisional ballots and began tabulating them around 1 p.m. These ballots were not expected to change the outcome of the tabulation yesterday (Friday), when officials processed ballots from early voting, primary day voting, and mail-in ballots.
On Tuesday’s primary day, no candidate in the six-way race crossed the threshold with only the first round of votes counted. Arlington waited until all the ballots were in, save provisional ballots, before eliminating lower vote-getters and tallying second- and third-place rankings.
Coffey, a researcher for the think tank American Progress, appears to have captured votes from many millennial renters like herself, receiving 10,786 votes.
Cunningham, who ran an unsuccessful bid for Arlington County Board as an independent in 2020, received 14,208 votes, initially carried by several precincts north of Langston Blvd.
Coffey emerged victorious in the fourth round, after Jonathan Dromgoole, Tony Weaver and Julius “JD” Spain were eliminated, in that order. Cunningham crossed the victory threshold in round six, after Natalie Roy was eliminated.
Tabulation yesterday and today at county government headquarters was open to the public as was the certification of the results.
Both Coffey and Cunningham were both present on Friday. Coffey observed the vibe in the tabulation room was upbeat, complimenting Director of Elections Gretchen Reinemeyer for walking through every step, even though it seemed boring and technical.
“But as we waited for each step to happen, people were joking and laughing and being silly with it,” she said. “I think it’s reflective, Arlington County has some really good people.”
After the preliminary results were finalized on Friday, Coffey seemed stunned.
“This is so surreal,” she said. “This is wild.”
Cunningham was similarly upbeat.
“I am just excited at the prospect of serving our community next January,” Cunningham told ARLnow shortly after the tabulation. “I’m ready to take a true deep breath and I’m really proud of our candidates and the community for having a good and clean race.”
Arlingtonians could have an update on the results of the Arlington County Board Democratic primary as soon as this afternoon, according to the local elections office.
“We will be accepting about 500 mail and provisional ballots today and results will be uploaded throughout the afternoon,” says spokeswoman Tania Griffin. “We’ll also have an update regarding the [ranked-choice voting] tabulation later this afternoon as well.”
For the first time, Arlington voters used a ranked-choice system to pick their top candidates for the County Board, which has two open seats this year. The outcome will come down to who voters ranked second and third place.
It is a squeaker so far for Susan Cunningham, Natalie Roy, Maureen Coffey and Julius “J.D.” Spain, whose tally of first-choice votes are within a range of only 5 percentage points from most to least.
“This race is still wide open,” said Liz White, the executive director of UpVote Virginia, which has been educating residents about ranked-choice voting ahead of the primary.
“Four out of the six candidates could very well secure a win once subsequent rounds are tabulated,” she said in an email. “Round-by-round tabulation will occur as soon as all provisional and mail ballots are processed. Once all votes are processed, the tabulation is instantaneous.”
No candidate crossed the threshold for early victory: 33.3% of the first-choice votes, plus one vote. The next step will be eliminating the lowest vote getters, in order. Who people picked after first ranking Jonathan Dromgoole and Tony Weaver could get any of the four other candidates past the finish line.
Cunningham, who took the lead in the first round of votes, tells ARLnow she has made peace with whatever happens next. Coffey, who currently sits in third place, says she is “on pins and needles” waiting for the results.
Political consultant Ben Tribbett is placing his bets that those who ranked Dromgoole first likely ranked Coffey or Spain next.
“When you get to the actual ranking of candidates, I think the third and fourth-place candidates are going to go on to win the election,” Tribbett said. “I would expect in that first round, that Maureen is going to win. There’s a chance Susan Cunningham could hold off J.D. in the second round.”
On Tuesday, County Board member Takis Karantonis — who endorsed Coffey and Spain — said Coffey performed well on a per campaign dollar spent basis. Meanwhile Spain, who had racked up several endorsements and raised substantial funds, underperformed, which he called a “sobering result.”
Looking precinct by precinct, it is clear that each of the candidates had a base. The more urban places with younger voters went for Coffey, while single-family home enclaves went for Cunningham and Roy, who were most critical of the zoning changes known as Missing Middle.
Spain told ARLnow on Tuesday night that he enjoyed strong support in his neighborhood, Penrose, while noting more confrontations with upset voters above Langston Blvd.
“We won the most diverse precincts in Arlington,” he said. “[I’m] proud of that.”
Tribbett was more blunt about what he saw as the electoral dynamic, citing the geographic distribution of votes in the Commonwealth’s Attorney race in particular.
“It’s the Karens versus the non-Karens,” he said. “Clearly, there’s a divide in the community that jumps out at you.”
After taking the helm for longtime Arlington County Sheriff Beth Arthur, who retired at the end of 2022, Acting Sheriff Jose Quiroz is one step closer to taking charge permanently.
Quiroz — backed by four of five County Board members and several elected officials — won the Democratic primary Tuesday night. Following his victory, over former sheriff deputy Wanda Younger and Arlington County police corporal James Herring, Quiroz advances to the November general election.
No one has emerged as an outside challenger, according to the Arlington Dept. of Elections website. If elected as expected, Quiroz will be the county’s first Latino sheriff.
As of last night, the acting sheriff had nearly 40% of the vote, or 10,733 ballots. Younger was close behind him, with 1,600 fewer votes (~34%). Herring came in third, picking up nearly 7,200 votes.
Looking forward, the acting sheriff says he will focus on mental health, substance use and programming for jail inmates. Running the local jail is the primary responsibility of the Arlington County Sheriff’s Office, along with providing court security and some law enforcement and civil process duties beyond the justice complex in Courthouse.
“I think the biggest thing is mental health. We all have that and all go through it, but some people need a little more care, attention, resources and services,” Quiroz told ARLnow. “I think the county has some work to do in that area.”
He stressed that he can only control treatment of inmates, not change the waves of people with mental illnesses and addictions coming to the jail. To that end, he says new biometric sensors — which inmates will wear so issues like withdrawal symptoms can be spotted before more inmates die — are close to go-time.
Meanwhile, he intends to maintain existing programs, including a series that teaches men how to connect with and be fathers to their kids.
“That’s how you break the cycle of the next generation,” he said. “It’s important to me as a father.”
He says he is thinking “outside the box” about support, stepping up pet therapy and possibly adding a pickleball court for staff and inmates.
In their concessions, Herring and Younger both said they campaigned on bringing to light problems in the jail.
“My campaign was about highlighting the issues and showing people the number of solutions we have available to us if we stop relying on the trope of ‘that’s the way it has always been done,’ or ‘it costs too much,'” Herring said. “Other Sheriff’s Offices in Virginia have implemented much of what I was talking about, often with smaller budgets. The problems facing our Sheriff’s Office are not financially driven, but an issue of priority.”
Next week, Herring will once more be patrolling the streets. He said he would run again if the problems he stressed in his campaign remain four years from now.
On social media, Younger said she is “proud to have raised the bar of the Sheriff’s Office with our ideas & solution-sets and to have brought light to the prevalent issues of the Arlington Sheriff’s Office which inhibit [its] growth and greatness.”
She also thanked voters for their confidence in her ability to carry out her platform.
“The Wanda for Sheriff team will continue to advance the rights and voice of the detainees, Sheriff’s Office staff and our Arlington community in the future as community advocates and caretakers, and we are honored to have earned your trust,” she said.
Our latest morning poll is, admittedly, a bit niche.
Only 16% or so of Arlington registered voters cast a ballot in yesterday’s Democratic primary. Beyond the closely watched Commonwealth’s Attorney race, the primary was notable for being the first locally to utilize ranked choice voting, for the six-way County Board race.
Depending on which news article you were reading yesterday, voters were either flummoxed by the concept of RCV or thought it no big deal to fill in bubbles for their first, second and third choices of candidate.
“Virginia’s first ranked-choice election is vexing some Arlington voters,” said a Washington Post headline. The article went on to report that “Advocates for ranked-choice voting have cheered this pilot initiative, saying it will lead to results that better reflect the will of the electorate. But there seems to be one hiccup so far: Not many people understand how it works.”
WTOP talked to a voter who had trouble casting a valid ballot, but was able to fix it.
“Some found the ranked-choice voting system to be simple, while others encountered issues initially,” the radio station reported. “‘I did find it confusing, and in fact, on my first try, my ballot was rejected,’ Carol Davidson told WTOP, adding that she was eventually able to cast her vote.”
On the other hand, Virginia Mercury, a statewide outlet that’s part of a left-of-center nonprofit, said RCV voting in Arlington was “mostly smooth.”
“Many Arlington Democratic voters spoke positively about the ranked-choice voting system being pioneered this Primary Day for two county board of supervisors seats, although some said more education would have been helpful,” the outlet reported. “‘It was pretty easy,’ said Andrea Hansen, a resident who cast a ballot at the Westover precinct. ‘I think it gives the impression of more of an equal playing field and it encourages people to read up more on the candidates.'”
Either way, Arlington County is now asking for feedback on RCV, seeking voters who want to “share their opinions on and experiences with RCV in Arlington.”
We also want to know how ranked choice went, if you cast a ballot in the Democratic primary. Did it all make sense or did something about it confuse you?
All the while, Arlington awaits the results of the County Board voting: final tabulation to determine the Democratic nominees for the two open seats can take place no earlier than Friday, when the last of the legal mail-in ballots arrive.
(Updated at 9:25 p.m.) Commonwealth’s Attorney incumbent Parisa Dehghani-Tafti has defeated challenger Josh Katcher in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
Dehghani-Tafti has 56% of the vote to 44% for Katcher, her former deputy, in the heated race for the top prosecutor of Arlington and Falls Church. That’s as of 8:40 p.m., with all but a few hundred provisional and late-arriving mailed ballots counted in Arlington. Polls closed at 7 p.m.
Katcher, standing outside of his watch party at Lost Dog Cafe in Westover, called Dehghani-Tafti shortly before 8:50 p.m. to concede the race.
The contentious — and expensive — contest has been seen as something of a referendum on the incumbent’s brand of vocal justice reform advocacy. Katcher, while billing himself as also in favor of justice reform, put a spotlight on Dehghani-Tafti’s leadership, which he linked to departures of deputy prosecutors amid a reported rise in crime.
“Right now we’re going to celebrate what we were able to accomplish with this campaign and thank the volunteers,” Katcher told ARLnow before heading back into his event.
“Over the course of the last six months, we’ve had an important debate in our community over the future of criminal justice reform,” he said in a subsequent written statement. “Our team left it all on the field, as we sought to have a debate about what real reform and real justice could mean for our community… I stand ready to continue my commitment to this community, to its safety and to the goal of ensuring that we are balancing the need for both justice and compassion.”
Dehghani-Tafti also thanked her supporters. Gesturing to the crowd gathered at her event at Fire Works Pizza in Courthouse (held with County Board candidate JD Spain) she said those present reflect a tiny fraction of the people who donated, volunteered, “held my hand,” and knocked on doors.
“A campaign based on love, dignity and respect prevailed,” she said. “I’m grateful for the trust everybody has placed in me.”
In the other two closely watched local races, for County Board and Sheriff, leads were slim.
The three-way county sheriff race has Jose Quiroz with a widening lead compared to earlier in the night, with 40% to 34% for former deputy sheriff Wanda Younger and 27% for Arlington police corporal James Herring.
Quiroz was appointed Acting Sheriff after the departure of long-time Sheriff Beth Arthur earlier this year. The position is primarily responsible for running the county jail in Courthouse, with the Sheriff’s Office also handling court security, civil process serving, and some law and traffic enforcement responsibilities.
The Arlington County Board primary, meanwhile, is being conducted for the first time using ranked choice voting, which means final tabulation will not take place until Friday at the earliest. Results of “first choice” votes are being posted, however, showing Susan Cunningham with 25%, Natalie Roy with 24%, Maureen Coffey with 22%, and JD Spain with 20%.