More outreach to Latino, older and younger voters is needed if Arlington wants the community to more fully embrace ranked-choice voting, new survey data suggests.
The majority of respondents — 66% — said they either strongly or somewhat supported the voting format in a government-funded voter survey conducted immediately after the November general election. Only 26% were strongly or somewhat opposed, and the remainder were undecided.
The survey found degrees of “heartburn about change,” particularly in the Latino and older-voter communities, according to Sally Hudson, who heads Ranked Choice Virginia, one of two groups that last year received county funding to provide outreach and gather feedback on ranked-choice voting.
In addition, younger voters, while more open to different types of voting, often are put off about politics in general, she said.
Hudson said the results didn’t surprise her.
“We rank things in our heads all the time,” Hudson told Board members on Tuesday. “Making choices at the ballot box is no different.”
A total of 584 residents took part in the survey, conducted by Survey USA Nov. 6-13. It was conducted primarily by text, with phone and Web options. Results were weighted to bring them in line with the county’s demographic composition.
The approach taken by researchers “allows us to reach voters through a variety of different methods, and then blend their voices to create a representative sample,” Hudson said.
The survey results showed that all socioeconomic groups had net support for ranked choice in Board elections, the margin of support varied by degrees. Latino voters and older voters were most likely to be skeptical.
Hudson acknowledged that her organization, which received $25,000 in county funding for its work, advocated for ranked-choice voting. However, she said the efforts were not skewed to achieve a desired result.
“The research was completely nonpartisan,” she said.
Kristin Poe Moody, operations coordinator for Challenging Racism — which received $35,000 for outreach efforts connected to the voting method — echoed Hudson’s remarks.
“We were intentionally nonpartisan in our outreach,” Moody told Board members.
The survey did not ask respondents about their political leanings, Hudson said.
“People don’t like being asked who they voted for, being asked their political affiliation,” she said.
Ranked-choice voting has been used in the County Board Democratic primary for the past three years and in the general election for two. Board members in March are expected to consider whether to make it permanent for future County Board general elections.
Board member Maureen Coffey, who supports expanding ranked-choice across all elections eventually, said making it the permanent choice in Board races will give the public more confidence in using the method.
“It is hard to build the trust when we haven’t made a long-term, permanent commitment,” she said.
That was a view shared by Dawn Kyser, facilitation coordinator at Challenging Racism.
“We need to give people a chance to settle into it if we want it to work,” she said.
Board Chair Matt de Ferranti seemed a little more hesitant in his reaction.
“I’m certainly open to continued work in this area,” he said, suggesting the survey was a step in the right direction but was not the final step.
“I think what we did had merit,” de Ferranti said, but “there could be different methods” of gaining input.
In ranked-choice elections, voters are able to list candidates in order of preference. At present in Arlington, ranking is limited to three, but an upcoming change in voting equipment will likely allow voters to rank all Board candidates, no matter how many are on the ballot.
If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round, low-scoring contenders are eliminated in successive rounds, with their votes being reallocated as directed by the voter, until a candidate reaches a majority of votes.
In a community as strongly Democratic as Arlington, ranked-choice probably won’t often have a major impact on County Board races in general elections. Last fall, Democratic nominee Takis Karantonis, an incumbent, won 65% of the vote in a five-candidate field in first-round voting. A year earlier, Julius “JD” Spain, Sr., a newcomer to the Board, won 58% in a four-candidate field.
The impact is more likely to be felt in County Board Democratic primaries, which are more competitive.
Currently, only Arlington and Charlottesville have used authority delegated by the General Assembly to use the ranked-choice format for County Board and City Council races, respectively.
For all offices except local governing bodies, state law still mandates the use of the more traditional voting format, with the candidate receiving a plurality of votes winning.
The prohibition on a wider extension of ranked-choice voting in Virginia may not change in the near term, Hudson told Board members.
“Elected officials do not like changing the rules they know how to win on,” she said. “Competition is scary to a lot of people.”
Even if it is implemented more broadly, do not expect ranked-choice to suddenly end political divisiveness, Kyser said.
While “there’s tremendous potential” in the format, “it’s not a magic wand,” she said.
