Add military conflict in the Middle East to the list of issues impacting real estate in Arlington.
A new analysis of February sales data warns that “buyers and sellers are moving with extreme caution,” dampening activity in localities including Arlington. The county’s home sales for the month totaled 142, down slightly from 146 in February 2025, according to figures reported by MarketStats by ShowingTime.
Both the average sales price of $895,204 and the median sales price of $692,500 were down for the month, dropping 3.9% and 7.9%, respectively.
“The conflict with Iran has added a new layer of uncertainty just as we would normally expect spring market activity to pick up,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.
“Despite mortgage rates falling to a three-and-a-half-year low, closed sales were essentially flat compared to last year, and new listings plunged to record lows across much of the region,” she said.
One reason for those declines was the slightly smaller share of single-family homes in the overall mix. In February 2026, these homes represented 33% of all Arlington transactions, down from 36% a year before.
In the single-family market, the average sales price of $1,541,437 was up 4.3%, while the attached market of townhouses, rowhouses and condominiums was down 7.3% to $575,488. In the condo-only market, the average sales price was $503,011, down 3.2%.
Total sales volume for the month was $127.2 million, down 5.7% from a year before.
Inventory on the market at the end of February was higher, at 306 properties — an 8.1% increase from a year earlier. But that increase was significantly smaller than in previous months, as the number of new listings coming to the market in February was down 7.2% to 154 countywide.
Sellers had to wait longer for offers they liked, with the average days on the market between listing and ratified sales contract up from 23 days a year before to 35 this February. The median days on the market increased from seven to 11.
While sales were down in February, things may be looking up for March, with pending sales increasing 15.4% to 187 in the new data.
The mid-term forecast remains clouded by economic and, now, military concerns.
“If the conflict with Iran is limited, the housing market could rebound quickly,” Sturtevant said. “However, a prolonged conflict could stall home sales activity this spring. The combination of declining seller inventory and cautious buyers creates uncertainty.”
While national and international issues play a role, the local market is more sensitive to the give-and-take between sellers and buyers.
“If sellers continue to hold back and buyers return, the Washington metro area may begin to tighten, becoming more competitive for buyers who enter the market,” Sturtevant said.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All February 2026 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
Arlington second in per-square-foot cost: In February, Arlington ranked second in per-square-foot real estate transaction costs region-wide.
During the month, buyers paid an average of $485 per square foot. Though down 7.8% year-over-year, Arlington stayed above its traditional rivals, D.C. ($475, down 7.1%) and Alexandria ($470, down 4.9%).
Figures were reported March 10 by Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service.
Topping the list regionally was Falls Church, where the average per-square-foot sales price was $570. Unlike in most other jurisdictions in the region, that number was up year-over-year, rising 12.7%.
Among other metro-area jurisdictions, average per-square-foot costs were $376 in Fairfax County, down 0.5%; $299 in Loudoun County, down 0.3%; and $255 in Prince William County, down 0.4%.
Across the Mid-Atlantic region, counting about 70 jurisdictions spread over six states and D.C., the average sales price for February was $251 per square foot, a decline of 0.4% from a year before.
D.C. region sees slight decline in sales, increase in prices: Total sales and median sales price across the D.C. region moved 2.2% in February — but in opposite directions.
The 2,890 transactions recorded during the month represented a 2.2% decline from a year before, according to figures reported by Bright MLS.
The median sales price rose 2.2% to $610,000, according to the data.
Figures represent market conditions in D.C.; in Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church in Virginia; and in Montgomery, Prince George’s and Frederick counties in Maryland.
For the region, the total number of home showings during the month was up 3% year-over-year to just over 81,000. Active listings at the end of the month were up 11% to 7,612.
Falls Church sees drop in sales, increase in prices: A total of 10 properties changed hands in the city of Falls Church in February, according to MarketStats by ShowingTime.
The median sales price of $847,376 for the month was up 13%, although given the small number of sales in any given month, swings up and down of that magnitude are not unusual in the city’s real estate market.
