Arlington rents are still on the rise, even as regional economic concerns mount.
Apartment List and Zumper both released new data analyses yesterday (Tuesday). They differ somewhat, but both point in a single direction: upward.
Apartment List pegged Arlington’s median rental rate for April at $2,485 for a one-bedroom unit and $3,003 for two bedrooms.
Overall, the reported median Arlington rent of $2,639 was up 0.6% month over month, about in line with cyclical national trends. Arlington’s rental cost was up 5.2% year over year, the fourth largest rate of increase among 100 urban areas tracked by Apartment List.
Nationally, Apartment List’s median apartment rent in April was $1,392, up 0.5% month-over-month but down 0.3% year-over-year. Across the Washington region, the median rent of $2,199 is up 2.9% year-over-year.
Among the 100 urban areas tracked by Apartment List, Arlington had the fifth-highest median rent, the highest of all areas outside of California.
Zumper, meanwhile, ranked Arlington as the seventh most expensive locale, with a median rental rate of $2,540 for a one-bedroom unit and $3,500 for a two-bedroom unit.
That compares to a national rate of $1,517 for one bedroom and $1,901 for two bedrooms.
The Zumper report shows significant price pressure on larger units in Arlington, with the two-bedroom median rent rising almost 17% year-over-year.
The Zumper report ranks New York City as the priciest market in the nation, with a median one-bedroom rental cost of $4,460 and a median two-bedroom rate of $5,920.
Where might the market be headed? As the local area grapples with rising unemployment, the overall real estate market — sales and rentals — could be impacted.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that 57,839 Northern Virginia residents were counted as unemployed in March. That’s up 7.1% from the month before and an increase of 34% from a year before.
Northern Virginia’s overall jobless rate of 3.2% in March, while well below the national rate of 4.2%, was up from 3% a month before and 2.4% a year ago.
The Virginia Employment Commission is expected to release March rates by locality in coming weeks. Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service, is scheduled to release Arlington home-sales data for April on May 10.
Nationally, a boom in building apartments has moderated price increases, but that could be coming to an end, one analyst said.
“With so much new supply coming online over the past 12 months, we’re seeing renters able to move up market,” said Anthemos Georgiades, CEO of Zumper. “That movement frees up inventory at lower price points, creating a ripple effect of affordability.”
But, “if demand holds steady while new construction continues to taper off, we could see rents pick back up in the second half of the year,” Georgiades said.
Apartment List analysts said that while there had been declines, prices are still up over the long haul.
“Following a period of record-setting rent growth through 2021 and the first half of 2022, the national median rent has now fallen below its August 2022 peak by a total of 3.5 percent, or $50 per month,” they said.
Despite the cooldown, the typical rent price remains 21 percent higher than its January 2021 level, Apartment List noted.
