This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: What trends are you seeing across the DC Metro real estate market?
Answer: The D.C. suburbs are holding strong despite sticky interest rates, but D.C. itself is showing some signs of weakness. Let’s jump into the charts and data that I think best highlight what we’re seeing so far this year:
Low Listing Supply Is The Main Story
Chart #1: One of the most interesting charts I’ve seen is below that compares this spring (March-May) to previous October-December new listing volume. Historically, we see the least number of homes listed for sale during the 4th quarter of each year and the most homes listed for sale March-May each year. New listing volume has been so low in 2023 that March-May 2023 has a similar listing volume to what we usually see from October-December.
Chart #2: We’re currently in our 15th straight month of negative year-over-year new listing activity and the last positive month was up only .5% year-over-year.
Chart #3: All D.C. area submarkets are desperate for new listings, but Fairfax County has it the worst with a drop in new listings volume by more than 40% year-over-year. D.C. has had the lowest drop but it’s still down by nearly 30%.
Chart #4: The result is about 26% fewer people have gotten to buy a home in 2023 than the 6 year average.
Demand Declining Fastest in D.C.
Demand has fallen everywhere compared to 2021/early 2022, but the drop in supply has been greater in most sub-markets than the drop in demand, which has kept market values up. However, Months of Supply, a metric that measures demand against supply, is on the rise in D.C. indicating that demand is falling faster than new listing volume and putting light downward pressure on prices.
Despite the increase in Months of Supply for D.C., it’s still below three months, which is a favorable seller’s market. A buyer’s market occurs when Months of Supply reaches 5-6 months.
Demand Down, Supply Down Even More, So Prices Are…
Depending on how you look at it and what sub-market you’re referencing, most prices can be considered flat or moderately up.
If your reference point is May 2022 to May 2023, you’ll find some sub-markets with prices slightly down. A lot of that has to do with the fact that closings in May 2022 were made up mostly of contracts in March/April 2022 which was the peak of the COVID market insanity with low rates and surging demand.
If your reference point is a bit wider and includes data from earlier or later in 2022, you’ll see many prices are trending up through 2023.
Condo prices are up 6.2% year-over-year in the D.C. Metro, whereas single-family detached is actually down -2% year-over-year because the May 2022 condo market was still softer due to COVID-related shifts in demand (dropped for condos) and supply (huge condo sell-off) while the single-family detached market was on fire during at that time.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C A
Good Tuesday evening, Arlington. Let’s take a look back at today’s stories and a look forward to tomorrow’s event calendar. 🕗 News recap The following articles were published earlier today…
In a bid to improve accountability, the Arlington County Fire Department is looking to put its mission and priorities in writing with its first-ever strategic plan. The plan is designed…
Under the direction of Music Director James Ross, Alexandria Symphony Orchestra presents a holiday program “Holiday With A Twist.” Enjoy this celebration of the season with traditional fare mixed with…
The Ballston “singing tree” is set to return for the holiday season. Starting next week, the sparkling, voice-activated Christmas tree near the Ballston Metro station will brighten the neighborhood with…
Children’s Weekday Program (CWP) is a non-profit preschool rooted in a play-based philosophy. We focus on developing a love of learning and exploration, cooperation, empathy, and independence.
Our caring and experienced educators create opportunities for children 16 months to 5 years old to play, learn, and grow in a nurturing environment of child-centered and developmentally appropriate experiences.
Initially established more than 50 years ago in South Arlington, CWP continues to be a lauded program in the Northern Virginia area. We are extremely proud to have been recognized as a Best Preschool in Northern Virginia Magazine for the last 4 years.
Located now in North Arlington at 2666 Military Road, CWP offers a part-time parents day out and preschool program with options to extend care both before and after school. We offer a supportive and inclusive school community for children and parents alike and welcome all families to join our school!
The Optimist Club of Arlington is holding its 77th annual Christmas tree sale!
This year, the tree sale will be held at the Knights of Columbus (5115 Little Falls Road). The lot opens for sales on November 24th. The Optimist Club is selling small and large trees ranging from tabletop size to 10 foot tall trees! Wreaths, garland, tree stands, and White House Christmas ornaments will also be for sale.
100% of all proceeds go towards helping Arlington County youth.
For more information, please visit the Arlington Optimists website at https://optimistclubofarlingtonva.org/.
Holiday Art Show featuring artists: Peter Fitzgerald, Claire Plante, Alanna Rivera, and Suzy Scollon. At the Barcroft Community House, 800 South Buchanan St., Arlington, VA. Dec. 8 from, 2 PM to 8 PM and Dec. 9 from 10 AM to
2023 Christmas Tree Sales Begin
Saturday, December 2
Get your holiday decorating off to the right start this year! We will be selling 150 Fraser firs, freshly cut and delivered from Sparta, North Carolina.