After several years of relatively meager winters, could this upcoming season have a big snowstorm on tap for us?
There’s some early suggestion of an elevated chance of large coastal winter storms between January and March, owing in part to a particularly intense El Niño climate pattern.
Of course, such a pattern could also leave Arlington high and dry again.
“Of the seven strong El Niño winters since 1950, four have been associated with well above normal snowfall while snowfall was virtually absent in the other three winters,” the National Weather Service wrote about winters in metro D.C. and Baltimore.
Climate prognosticating — it’s an inexact science, just ask the groundhog — has been raising the hopes of snow lovers this month, with some models suggesting a cold and snowy winter is likely for the Mid-Atlantic region.
***NEW*** SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK JUST RELEASED. pic.twitter.com/56pnR8HIob
— MWAS-#1 (@SPCMETROWX) September 23, 2023
The latest CFS (Climate Forecasting System) shows a cold winter (Dec,Jan,Feb) for the Mid-Atlantic. pic.twitter.com/cgcEUirMVk
— Russ Adams 🌧️🌬️☀️🌡️🌨️🦃 (@patpend) September 26, 2023
One of many indicators recently. The reason El Nino produces more disruptive snow in the Mid-Atlantic is it creates more nor'easters (half the equation). That means more opportunities for this to sync with cold temperatures (the other half). https://t.co/6cqvJJ6Era
— Russ Adams 🌧️🌬️☀️🌡️🌨️🦃 (@patpend) September 18, 2023
The ECMWF+UKMET superblend* for December 2023-February 2024 is very active along the U.S. East Coast ❄️
Consistent with an El Niño winter, above normal precipitation (🟢) is shown across the Deep South, Southeast, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as well as California.
The… pic.twitter.com/7gHvX121Rr
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 11, 2023
The last really big winter storm to hit Arington was the Jan. 22-23, 2016 blizzard. The three large snow events of the winter of 2009-2010, meanwhile, are still fresh in the minds of many locals who lived through them.
What do you think? Would you welcome another big snowstorm this winter or do you prefer the mostly snowless winters of late?
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