poll

The response to the proposed closure of the Cherrydale library and the county’s competitive gymnastics program was swift and relentless.

Speakers lined up at County Board meetings, petitions were circulated, signs proliferated on local roadways, and local listservs and social networks lit up with calls to right what defenders saw as the injustice of cutting something beloved from the budget.

In the end, the County Board restored funding, keeping the Cherrydale library, the gymnastics program, and the Barcroft Sports & Fitness center, which was also on the chopping block. Instead, the Board balanced the budget by raising the property tax rate by two cents for commercial and residential properties in Arlington.

Neighboring Fairfax County, meanwhile, lowered the rate by $0.25 for every $100 in property value.

This is how many budget battles go in Arlington. Something people like is proposed for cuts, but then the Arlington Way kicks in, with lots of outcry about saving the thing that might be cut.

The last time Arlington‘s property tax rate was as high as it now will be — $1.053 per $100 assessed valuation — was 1980, when it was $1.12. It has fluctuated over the years since then, reaching a low of $0.765 per $100 in 1990 and 1991.

The process of cutting Arlington County‘s budget is not as easy as some might hope. You can perhaps trim administrative positions and contracts around the margins, but any low-hanging fruit was almost certainly pruned over the past few cycles, each their own “tough budget year.” (And making changes to county contracts with marginal fiscal benefits sometimes leads to undesired results.)

To really make a dent would take cutting something with a constituency, whether it’s a library, infrastructure improvements, affordable housing, nonprofit grants, and so on. And that’s not to mention core services like public safety, where costs have been increasing as recruitment challenges have led to increased pay, or Metro, investment in which continues to weigh heavily on local government budgets.

A budget is, in the end, a math equation. And if inflation continues rising above the annual increase in property values, that’s going to tend to push expenses higher than revenue. Already, county officials have been sounding warnings of another tough budget and additional tax hikes next year.

Meanwhile, the commercial property taxes on office buildings that used to prop up the county’s budget are down amid continued high office vacancy, so the burden for increased tax rates will fall on homeowners, whose property values have continued to rise, with no end in sight.

The need to make hard budgetary choices is nothing new. One of ARLnow’s early articles, from March 2010, noted the tension “between those who think taxes are high enough already and those who take an ‘increase my taxes, please’ approach.”

The article also included a faux graphic of former County Manager Barbara Donnellan in the classic municipal simulation game SimCity, where you often have to make unpopular decisions to balance your city’s budget — or risk disaster. You can underfund the fire department for awhile without public disapproval, but your city will eventually burn down.

Arlington County memorably took one of those budgetary shortcuts in the wake of the Great Recession. In 2009, just 25 lane miles of the county’s 974 miles of roadway were repaved. A few years and some hard winters later, county roads were littered with potholes and the public grumbling grew loud enough that the county bumped up the paving to 72 lane miles per year by 2014.

A return to crumbling streets seems unlikely, so next year’s budget will likely come down to the classic choice: you’ll have to increase taxes, cut services, or some middle-ground combination of the two.

Today we’re making it a binary choice, to see which ARLnow readers prefer. All things considered, and assuming that consequence-free cuts to administrative functions are not feasible, would you rather see the County Board cut services or raise taxes next year?