Northern Virginia leaders, including those from Arlington, are in wait-and-see mode on what Republican victories at the national level could mean for local transit and transportation funding.
“I don’t have a crystal ball,” said Kate Mattice, executive director of the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission (NVTC). “It’s just sort of watching the space and seeing what lands.”
NVTC board members met Thursday (Nov. 7) for the first time since the election, when Donald Trump regained the presidency and Republicans seemed on track to win possible control of both houses of Congress. For Democrats who largely control political power across Northern Virginia, it appeared an unnerving omen that required a response.
“We need to step forward as leaders,” said NVTC chair and Arlington County Board member Matt de Ferranti. He urged his colleagues to “rise above provincialism” to present a united front to the incoming Trump administration.
“The residents that we serve need public transportation,” de Ferranti said.
Mattice said that little of the federal funding for regional transportation is at any short-term risk. But changes in leadership at federal transportation agencies “can make a huge difference” over time, she said.
“There’s going to be a shift,” Mattice predicted.
The possibility of a federal government more hostile to transit funding is likely to further push Northern officials to find permanent revenue streams at the local and state levels.
“A long-term, sustainable, dedicated funding solution for our region” is needed, said Fairfax Supervisor Walter Alcorn (D-Hunter Mill).
Northern Virginia local leaders and members of the region’s state legislative delegation already are working on plans to develop options for funding. Having convinced the General Assembly earlier this year to provide more financial support, transit boosters do not plan to push for much more in Richmond next year.
But doesn’t mean they aren’t compiling a wish list for subsequent years.
Daniel Knickelbein, transit-program manager for NVTC, said that body was gearing up for “a much larger ask” of the legislature in 2026.
A study committee empaneled earlier this year by the General Assembly continues to mull revenue sources, which could include anything from a regional income tax to increased gas and sales taxes.
Up to 15 possibilities will be presented as an “expanded menu of revenue options,” said Andrew D’huyvetter, director of policy and programs for NVTC.
That body on Nov. 7 received a brief update following a broader discussion in October. A more robust dissection of “the path ahead” will be presented next month, said state Sen. Adam Ebbin (D-39).
“We’ve got important work to go,” Ebbin said at the meeting.
Authorization from the General Assembly and, possibly, local voters would be needed in order to provide additional funding streams for the Metro system, local bus networks and Virginia Railway Express.
Once the draft “menu” of possible funding options is ratified — likely in just a few days — it will be turned over to a consultant that will be hired to vet it and report back sometime in 2025.
During the Nov. 7 NVTC meeting, several members said that before attempting to go to the public seeking more money, local leaders need to do a better job advocating for the importance of local transit and the institutional improvements that have come in recent years.
“We’re accused of being inefficient, but we don’t promote things that we’re doing to be more efficient,” said Del. Mark Sickles (D-43). “People don’t know about them if we don’t tell them.”
Arlington County Board Chair Libby Garvey (D) agreed that positive messages from local transit agencies seldom seem to filter down to the public.
“We’re really horrible at it,” she said.
NVTC officials also are putting the finishing touches on their planned wish list for the upcoming General Assembly session. Having won a healthy increase in transit funding from Richmond in the 2024 session, the 2025 session that starts in January likely will see no expanded funding initiatives proposed.
“There isn’t a heavy ask” being contemplated for 2025, Alexandria City Council member Canek Aguirre (D) said.
But come 2026, the situation could be different. Last month, de Ferranti urged his colleagues to swing for the fences in pushing an expanded transit agenda.
The 2025 NVTC legislative package is expected to be finalized and voted on Dec. 5.
The election of Trump and the prospect of a Republican Congress may give the largely Democratic local political leadership heartburn and trepidation. But Mattice said the election results held some positives for transit.
A number of localities across the U.S. ratified ballot initiatives providing additional funding, she said.
Efforts by advocates in those areas had been “incredibly successful,” Mattice said.
The American Public Transportation Association tracked 53 ballot measures this year, with 46 winning approval.
The 2024 election has marked “a significant step forward for public transportation,” said the organization’s president/CEO, Paul Skoutelas.
