For Arlington Democrats, the number to beat on Nov. 4 is 51,465.
That’s the difference between the number of votes cast in the county, in 2021, for Democrat Terry McAuliffe (73,013) over Republican Glenn Youngkin (21,548). McAuliffe lost that race, falling short by about 64,000 votes statewide.
This year, the Arlington County Democratic Committee has started working overtime to provide as many votes as possible for the party’s 2025 nominee for governor, Abigail Spanberger.
“Everyone’s looking at us, and we have something to show,” said County Board Chair Takis Karantonis, speaking at the July 2 Democratic Committee meeting. “It’s here where we determine the fate of this commonwealth.”
Polls and pundits currently give an edge to Spanberger over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. But many of those same forecasters saw McAuliffe as the likely victor at this stage in 2021.
Political analyst and podcaster Sam Shirazi believes Arlington will stay true to its historic election norms in November.
“I’m guessing it will go at least 3-to-1 for Democrats,” he said at the July 2 meeting.
That’s good for the local slate, but Shirazi said the key for Arlington Democrats to play an outsized role statewide is to ramp up voter enthusiasm and convert it into ballots being cast.
“We have to focus on certain areas where turnout is not going to be as high,” he said. “The more you can bump up turnout, the more there are going to be Democrats voting.”
In 2021, Shirazi said, many North Arlington precincts had turnout of greater than 70%, while some areas south of Arlington Blvd recorded rates of less than 50%.
Democrats should focus on areas including Metro corridors and working-class neighborhoods where turnout typically is lower in non-presidential elections, he said.
“We need to get them out,” Shirazi said.
Leaders said that many of the Trump administration’s actions are motivating the party’s rank and file, perhaps even more than after the 2016 election.
“Many of you are probably outraged,” Democratic deputy chair Paul Ruiz said at the July 2 meeting.
He urged the party faithful to focus on “channeling that anger, that frustration, into something that’s going to be productive.”
County Republicans have fielded a slate that includes candidates for County Board and two of the three House of Delegates’ seats in Arlington. Republicans also may endorse in the School Board race, which has three contenders.
The county GOP typically faces challenges in recruiting candidates for General Assembly races. In 2021, however, the party did field contenders for all three seats.
While those Republican candidates lost by wide margins, some commentators deemed the effort a success in bringing out more voters to help the statewide ticket of Youngkin, Winsome Earle-Sears and Jason Miyares.
In the upcoming County Board race, Takis Karantonis is facing Republican Bob Cambridge and independents Audrey Clement, Jeramy Olmack and Carlos “DC” De Castro Pretelt.
