Nearly 18 months after the Trump Administration began downsizing the federal workforce, the impact locally remains open to interpretation and conflicting data.
And not all analysts are downcast.
“I try to look at the glass half filled every now and then,” said Dave Remick, executive director of the Alexandria/Arlington Workforce Development Council.
Council members on June 25 met to discuss recent economic indicators — indicators that offer plenty of data but no clear road map showing how well the local area is holding up on the jobs front.
“We’re doing all right,” said Helen Ding, a research associate at Northern Virginia Community College (NOVA) who presented updated data.
Federal-government employment among Northern Virginia residents was down 13% year-over-year in April, with commensurate losses among firms reliant on federal contracting.
“On the flip side, local and state governments are up, along with health-care industries,” Ding said.
Year-over-year, the number of Northern Virginians employed by state governments rose 2.9%, with those working for local governments up 2.7%.
“Many, many people who used to work in the federal government are now part of our state and local governments,” Remick said. “I know a few of them.”
Year-over-year employment among Northern Virginia residents was down 0.9% in April to 1.62 million, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Residents of suburban Maryland and the District of Columbia have taken harder hits, as the regionwide jobs total of 3.3 million in April was down 3.1% from a year before.
Postings by employers seeking workers rose to 42,690 in May, according to Lightcast Analyst, the fourth increase in five months and up about 40% from December’s seasonal low.
The construction industry has been on a hiring spree and needs more workers, said Rolando Montoya, a member of the Workforce Development representing Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers Local 100.
“It’s been one of our busiest times,” Montoya said. “I’ve been able to recruit a lot of candidates from the Arlington/Alexandria area, hiring a lot of workers and apprentices. We’ve been super-busy.”
In the most recent data, Arlington and Alexandria’s labor force — those employed or looking for work — was down 2.4% year-over-year, a drop of about 6,000.
As a result, “there are a lot of thought leaders pushing the gloom-and-doom thing,” Remick said.
Some have suggested the decline represents an exodus of talent from Northern Virginia to areas where jobs are more plentiful and the cost of living is not so high. But those at the June 25 meeting said that could be an oversimplification or a premature conclusion.
“It’s too early to say. We don’t know for sure if people are moving out,” said Marisa Hayes, another research analyst at NOVA.
Brandon Bedford of Arlington Economic Development, who serves on the regional panel, said federal employment definitions used to determine the labor -force rate are in need of updating.
They do not count those doing freelance work, self-employed or working from home for companies located outside the D.C. metro area, he said.
“These definitions are really outdated and have not been modernized to really reflect what working means in 2026,” Bedford said.
Hayes said that the federal data also doesn’t fully account for those who have retired rather than left the workforce involuntarily.
“Retirements are not tracked outside the federal government, so we really have no idea,” she said.
Whether advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are causing job loss in technical and administrative fields remains an open question, Hayes said.
“It’s possible,” she said. “We don’t know for sure. AI might be contributing [to job losses], but I hesitate to say that’s definitely what’s happening.”
The workforce council provides support to both individuals needing jobs or training and employers seeking to hire. Services are funded by the federal government and Arlington and Alexandria governments.
The council’s next quarterly meeting is slated for Sept. 17.
Photo via Joe Holland/Unsplash
