Falls Church homeowners likely will face higher real-estate tax bills in 2025-26 even if city leaders are able to shave a few pennies off the tax rate.
With no rate change, the typical city homeowner would face an estimated median $529 tax increase owing to higher assessments, the result of a still-robust housing market.
The figure comes from a Nov. 2 briefing presented to City Council members, who next spring will both adopt a fiscal 2026 budget and set the tax rate.
It is, all agree, very preliminary, as updated home assessments won’t be released until late February.
The current (fiscal 2025) rate is $1.21 per $100 assessed valuation. The fiscal 2026 rate — whether higher, lower or unchanged — will apply to semi-annual tax bills due in December 2025 and June 2026.
For the owner of a home valued at $1 million — not atypical for single-family properties in Falls Church — every penny cut from the tax rate would result in a tax savings of $100. Even a two-cent cut, which seems to be the most Council members anticipate considering, would not fully offset higher tax burdens due to rising assessments.
Falls Church’s tax rate was $1.355 per $100 for three consecutive fiscal years ending in 2021. Council members cut the rate in three of the ensuing four years.
New development has helped efforts at reducing the tax rate, but ongoing increases in values of existing homes still have sent Falls Church’s tax burden higher.
While the new development is welcomed, “we’re already starting to see the costs that go along with that growth,” Council member David Snyder said at the Dec. 2 work session.
City leaders “need to maintain faith with our community” by focusing on the impact of the tax burden on residents, Snyder said.
At the Dec. 2 meeting, Council members seemed to agree on direction that would call for the real-estate tax rate to either remain unchanged or be cut one to two cents per $100.
But even with no cut, city staff still envision a $2 million budget hole that will have to be filled somehow before adoption of the budget.
A tax-rate cut would require even more creativity in meeting any shortfall, since under Virginia law all localities must have balanced operating budgets each year.
Some of the cost increases projected by city leaders are the results of factors out of their control, including inflationary pressure and regional commitments.
But some of the costs are Falls Church-specific.
“We have challenges that come with growth, and we need to meet that,” City Manager Wyatt Shields said.
Add to that increasing student enrollment and uncertainty about state and federal budget funding, and city leaders remain without a complete road map to the future.
“The unknowns are very intimidating,” Council member Erin Flynn said.
Under the preliminary estimates, Falls Church tax coffers can expect about $106 million in General Fund revenues for the next fiscal year. That’s up 5.9% from the current year.
Nestled between Arlington and Fairfax County, Falls Church has leveraged its location well. The city’s overall assessed real-estate valuation, anticipated to be $6.2 billion next year, has grown steadily over the past decade.
About $4 billion of that total is in residential property.
Falls Church is not as impacted as its neighbors on the commercial-property front. Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax County all are grappling with empty office buildings whose valuations have plummeted, leading to less tax revenue.
Mayor Letty Hardi said the city is “really fortunate” to be outperforming other jurisdictions.
The city’s fiscal 2026 budget process will formally kick off Jan. 14, when Superintendent Peter Noonan will present his budget proposal. Shields will follow two months later, with School Board and City Council adoption of their respective budgets set for successive days in May.
The new fiscal year starts July 1.
School Board Taps Superintendent-Search Support: The Falls Church School Board is getting help as it begins the search for a new superintendent.
Board members have approved hiring Hazard Young Attea (HYA) and Associates, an executive-search firm, to vet contenders for the post now held by Superintendent Peter Noonan.
Noonan, who has led the school district since 2017, in August announced plans to depart following completion of the 2024-25 school year.
According to its website, HYA since its founding in 1987 has assisted 1,600 clients choose education leaders.
