Arlington’s homes market saw a slight year-over-year decline in sales in 2024 — but prices kept rising.
A total of 2,196 properties changed hands during the year, according to preliminary figures reported by Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service.
That’s down 2.1% from the 2,242 sales recorded in 2023.
Year-over-year sales prices rose across Arlington under three key metrics:
- The average sales price of $899,403 was up 5.9%.
- The median sales price of $730,000 was up 6.6%.
- The average price per square foot of $505 was up 6.8%.
In neighboring Falls Church, where home sales skew toward single-family properties, sales for the year totaled 131, down 2.4% from 143. The average sales price of $1,110,567 was up 16.2% and the median sales price of $1,115,000 was up 28.6%.
The past year saw the home-buying public get used to mortgage-interest rates that spiked from record lows to historically average and, in some cases, above-average rates. In November and December, rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.75%, about on par with long-term norms.
“Buyers have re-anchored their expectations and have come to terms with the ‘new normal’ for rates,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS. “Over the past year, rates have been above 7%, and even close to 8%, so buyers now think a rate in the mid-6’s is pretty good.”
But many homeowners are still opting to stay put and reap the rewards of those ultra-low interest rates obtained during the Covid era.
As a result, there are opportunities and challenges in the new year, according to Bright MLS analysts.
“As we move into 2025, there is significant pent-up demand in the D.C. metro area housing market, but there are also headwinds. Inventory is likely to remain low across the region and affordability is a major constraint for many buyers. There is also uncertainty around federal-government employment in the region, which will be important to watch in the months ahead.”
But time will work in favor of a more balanced market going forward, the analysts predicted.
“Changing family and financial circumstances will prompt more homeowners to sell their home, despite having to give up their super-low mortgage rate. In a recent nationwide survey of homeowners conducted by Bright MLS, the group most likely to sell in 2025 is younger homeowners in their 30s and 40s, and the most common reasons for selling are family or job changes.”
Bright MLS’s catchment area in the Mid-Atlantic is about 80 counties and cities including D.C. and Delaware, as well as portions of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Across the entire coverage area, sales for the year totaled 223,275, up 2.5% from 2023; median prices were up 6.5% to $410,000; average prices rose 6.8% to $505,873; and the average sales price per square foot was up 5.1% to $249.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All 2024 figures are preliminary and subject to revision.
In December, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors and the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University released their 2025 housing forecast. For Fairfax County, both sales and prices are expected to outpace 2024.
- Single-family: Sales are expected to decline 6.5% year-over-year in 2025, with median sales prices rising 5.3% and inventory growing 1.8%.
- Attached (townhouses, rowhouses): Sales are projected to decline 1.3%, prices to rise 8.1% and inventory to drop 4.3%.
- Condominiums: Sales are expected to decline 1.5%, prices to rise 1.6% and inventory to rise 3.6%.
Year-Over-Year Apartment Rents Up Across Arlington: Apartment rents across Arlington closed out 2024 higher than a year before, even as the national rental market posted a slight overall decline.
The median apartment-rental cost in the county to end the year was $2,533, up 4.5% year-over-year, according to figures reported by Apartment List.
It took an average 41 days to rent an apartment in Arlington in December, compared to 36 days nationally.
Arlington is one of 100 large urban areas tracked by the analytics firm, and ended 2024 as the fifth most expensive. Irvine, Calif., had the highest median rental rate was $3,053, while Fort Wayne, Ind., had the lowest at $1,009.
For the D.C. region as a whole, the median overall apartment-rental rate to close out 2024 was $2,146 , up 3% from a year before.
Nationally, the median rate of $1,373 to close out 2024 was down 0.6% from the end of 2023 and was at its lowest rate since early 2022. Despite the cooldown, the typical rent price remains 20% higher than pre-Covid levels.
“As moving activity picks back up in the new year, we are likely to see these monthly [national] declines moderate and then flip back to positive growth in the coming months,” Apartment List analysts said.
