Arlington’s tepid real estate market has been emblematic of Northern Virginia and the commonwealth as a whole this summer.
“We’re seeing a market where inventory is growing in some segments while remaining incredibly constrained in others,” said Ryan McLaughlin, CEO of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.
Arlington’s year-over-year sales decline of about 5% to 227 properties in July was par for the course statewide. Only 48% of counties and cities saw a sales increase, while the remainder were flat or posted declines.
Commenting on Aug. 20, McLaughlin said recent sales figures “reinforce that Northern Virginia is entering a new phase of the housing cycle.”
“The market is still moving, but the dynamics vary significantly depending on the type of home buyers are seeking,” he said. “Buyers are finding more choices among condos and attached homes, while the supply of single-family detached homes remains very limited.”
At the state level, “July’s data points to a housing market that remains active but is becoming increasingly sensitive to borrowing costs,” said Ryan Price, chief economist of the Virginia Association of Realtors (VAR).
Consummated transactions statewide in July totaled 10,362, up 1.8% year over year and the highest total for the month since 2022 — but the smallest year-over-year increase so far this year.
The median sales price statewide was also up modestly, rising 3% to $448,000. In Arlington, which represented 2.2% of all statewide sales in July, the median sales price was $823,000, while in Northern Virginia as a whole, it was $750,000.
Despite economic headwinds and affordability challenges, current conditions offer opportunities for those willing to participate.
“Buyers who stay in the market are benefiting from a growing selection of homes, while sellers continue to see strong home values and interest from motivated purchasers,” VAR president Curt Reichstetter said.
In July, market activity was up slightly in the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas, and down — sometimes sharply — in communities like the Roanoke Valley, Lynchburg and Winchester.
Listings coming to the market in Virginia rose sharply in July, according to VAR, but the total still represents a relatively balanced 3.1 months of supply.
At the national level, the market has been holding relatively steady despite the challenge of higher mortgage interest rates.
“Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said.
“Year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and there’s no doubt that the housing market would be thriving if average mortgage rates were to return near 6%,” Yun said.
Nationally, the total number of sales in July marked an increase of 0.7% year-over-year, and the median sales price of $434,100 was up 2% — its 37th consecutive month of increases.
In the South, the median sales price for July was $371,700, up 0.9% from a year before, the National Association of Realtors reported.
