Ask Eli

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

Question: How has the single-family new construction market performed in Northern Virginia lately?

Answer: Over the past five years, from Q2 2019 to Q2 2024, the average price of a single-family detached (SFD) home in Northern Virginia has increased by a whopping 53.2%, from $691,000 to $1,059,000. The cost of a new SFD home in Northern Virginia has increased by a similar amount, growing by 57.8% to-date since 2020, from $1,315,000 to $2,074,000. That’s right, as of 2024, the average cost of a new SFD home in Northern Virginia is over $2M!

This week, let’s take a deeper dive into the cost of new SFD homes over the past five years around Northern Virginia. A few quick notes about the data:

• The data is limited to what has been entered into the MLS (Realtor database of record) and not all new construction makes it into the MLS, but the majority does and gives us an accurate reading of the market
• Northern Virginia totals include the counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William plus the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, and Manassas
• In the tables below, Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, and Manassas refer to the county portions, not the intendant cities (the data sets are too small to show them separately)

Highlights of New Construction Data

• The biggest price jump took place from 2020 to 2021, with new SFD home prices increasing by an average of 20% in just one year
• With average prices of nearly $3.5M, McLean and Great Falls command the highest prices in the region
• 2024 is the first year of Fairfax County having a higher average price for new SFD homes than Arlington County, but the year is not finished, and the lead could flip back to Arlington before the year is up
• Ashburn, Arlington, and Dumfries pack their lots with the most house per acre and Nokesville offers the most land per finished sq. ft. of home
• The biggest homes get built in McLean, averaging over 7,600 sq. ft., six bedrooms, and six full bathrooms
• From 2023 to 2024 the average new SFD home in Northern Virginia costs buyer $355 sq. ft. (total finished sq. ft.)

If you are considering selling your home to a builder, here’s an article I wrote last year with six tips for selling your home to a builder.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460. 

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

You’ve seen the headlines and likely read a range of varying/conflicting information about the new laws affecting buyers and buyer agent commission. I will spend time discussing the new laws and answering your questions at our Ask Eli Home Buyer Workshop next week at the Arlington Central Library on Wednesday, September 11. Food and drinks will be provided!

The workshop is a free and will cover: 

• New laws affecting buyer agent representation and commission
• How to use data and strategy to maximize your home purchase
• How to use market trends to your advantage
• The latest on interest rates and mortgage programs/products
• Common mistakes to avoid and some tips for success 

Who is it for? 

• Anyone curious about the agent commission changes and how they could impact you 
• Any buyer type from first-time buyer to experienced buyers 
• Ready to purchase now or planning 18-24 months out 
• Home buyers in Northern VA, DC, or the Maryland Suburbs 
• You or anybody you know who would benefit 

Where and When? 

• Wednesday September 11 from 6-7:30 p.m.
• Arlington Central Library (1015 N Quincy Street), Bluemont Room

Registration is now open, and space is limited. Click the graphic below to RSVP. Bring your appetite and your home buying questions! I’d love to see you there. Feel free to email me at [email protected] with any questions about the event. 

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460. 

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater DC Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

Question: What do my six-year-old son and I have in common?

Answer: Yesterday was our first day of school!

Yesterday at 8:30 a.m., Jackson climbed aboard the bus for his first day of 1st grade at Barcroft Elementary and yesterday at 4 p.m. I walked through the doors of George Mason’s Arlington Campus for my first day of class for my Master’s in Real Estate Development!

I’m still planning to be a local real estate agent for Arlington and the surrounding Northern Virginia/D.C. Metro communities (and your weekly ARLnow real estate columnist!), but I’ve always wanted to expand and deepen my real estate knowledge and the George Mason MRED offers a fantastic master’s program for regional residential and commercial real estate. I’m excited to broaden and deepen the range of topics I write about in my weekly Ask Eli column and for the new expertise and services I’ll be able to offer clients.

It’s been 15+ years since I graduated from the University of Maryland and took my last test, so wish me luck in getting back into the habit of homework assignments, group projects, and pop quizzes!

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater DC Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

Question: How has the rental market performed so far in 2024?

Answer: 

Rent vs Buy — Nowhere to Hide 

The unfortunate truth these days is that if you need housing, there’s nowhere to find safety. Prices on single-family homes and condos are up significantly, higher interest rates have pushed monthly payments to uncomfortable levels, and, as you’ll see below, the rental market is competitive and expensive.

Over the past five years, the average rent price in Arlington is up 21.6% across all property types and 27.1% for single-family home rentals. So far in 2024, about half of homes listed for rent are rented within the first ten days on market and tenants have little room for negotiation, with the average property renting for just .2% less than the original asking price. Properties that are rented within the first ten days on market (about half) are going for an average of 1.4% above the asking price.

About the Data

The data below is rental data from the MLS in Arlington over the last five years. Note that very few commercial apartment buildings list in the MLS so this data is limited to non-commercially owned rentals (for apartments, that is mostly individually owned condos).

Further, it’s difficult to say what percentage of non-commercially owned properties go through the MLS for rent but I would guess that it’s about half of rented apartments (condos), but likely a majority if detached and townhouse properties. Despite the limited data set, we still have more than enough information available through the MLS to generate outputs that represent the true rental market.

Highlights and Data Table 

Here are some highlights from the data table (keep in mind that 2020-2023 includes 12 months of data, but 2024 is just 7.5 months of data):

• The average rent for an apartment (condo) is up 3.1% this year compared to last and the average rent for a single-family home and a townhouse/duplex is up 8.7% and 6.2%, respectively
• Average rental prices in Arlington are up 21.6% over the past five years
• The average rent price of an apartment (condo) has increased 17% in the past five years, a bit higher than the 14.3% increase to the average cost of buying a condo during that same period
• The average rent price of a single-family home has increased 27.1% in the past five years, a bit higher than the 24.9% increase to the average cost of buying a single-family home during that same period
• The 2024 rental market, across all property types, has been more competitive than it’s been during any other year going back to 2020, with properties renting at prices closer (or above) to the original asking price and properties accepting a tenant faster than any previous years. Note that these numbers might drop to be more in line with previous years once the slower months of 2024 (fall/holidays) are included.
• Roughly 50% of properties accept a tenant within ten days of being listed for rent

For further questions about the Northern Virginia rental market, Eli Residential Group’s rental specialist, Carolanne Korolowicz is available at [email protected].

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater DC Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

On Wednesday, September 11 I’ll be hosting another Ask Eli Home Buyer Workshop with my business partner Jean Ropp and local Loan Officer, Matt Ropp, with Atlantic Coast Mortgage. Food and drinks will be provided!

The workshop is free and will cover:

• How to use data and strategy to maximize your home purchase
• How to use market trends to your advantage
• The latest on interest rates and mortgage programs/products
• Common mistakes to avoid and some tips for success

Who is it for?

• Any buyer type from first-time buyer to experienced buyers
• Ready to purchase now or planning 18-24 months out
• Home buyers in Northern Virginia, D.C., or the Maryland Suburbs
• You or anybody you know who would benefit

Where and When?

• Wednesday, September 11 from 6-7:30 p.m.
• Arlington Central Library (1015 N Quincy St.), Bluemont Room

Registration is now open and space is limited. Click the graphic below to RSVP. Bring your appetite and your home buying questions! I’d love to see you there.

Feel free to email me at [email protected] with any questions about the event.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater DC Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

Question: What do you expect to see from the real estate market for the remainder of the year?

Answer: Following a strong first half for single-family homes and an exceptionally strong first half for condos, let’s take a look at what historical trends tell us we can expect from the local real estate market for the rest of the year. Having a strong understanding of weekly and monthly fluctuations in market conditions can give buyers and sellers a competitive advantage over the rest of the market and prevent costly mistakes based on inaccurate assumptions.

While the specific data/conditions vary year-to-year based on things like inventory levels, interest rates, and economic conditions, we can rely on trends as we move through the seasons and hit certain transition points (usually marked by major holidays) throughout the year. The charts below are made up of sales in Arlington since 2013 (excluding 2020 because of COVID lockdowns) and the trends can generally be applied to markets in the greater D.C. area, not just Arlington.

Inventory Will Spike Soon, Then Fall Sharply

The summer months are defined by a shift in demand (lower) and listing volume (lower) relative to the peak spring activity. A lot of homeowners wait to put their home on market until after Labor Day, the unofficial end of summer, so we usually see listing activity spike the week following Labor Day Weekend; producing roughly double the volume of listings in the following week or two relative to the preceding and proceeding weeks.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: How has the Arlington condo market performed in the first half of 2024?

Answer: The Arlington condo market had a historically strong first half performance this year, with average prices up a whopping 13.6% in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023.

A Wave of Demand Led to Remarkable Appreciation

Coming into the year, there were strong signs of upward price pressure in the condo market with inventory levels well below the 10-year average and significant increases in key demand metrics (% of condos selling within ten days and % of sale price to original asking price). We also had pent-up demand from would-be condo buyers in 2023, who held off on a purchase waiting/hoping for rates to drop, combined with the normal cycle of 2024 condo buyers to create strong demand in the first half of the year.

For a market that is generally flat/stable, even appreciation of 3-5% in a year is notable on a historical level, making double-digit growth is remarkable. For perspective, by most measures, we saw more appreciation in the first half of this year than we saw in the 12-16 months following the Amazon HQ2 announcement.

How the Data is Organized

For my mid-year reviews, I like to compare the first half of the year to the same period (first half) of prior years, rather than comparing the first half of the current year to the full year in prior years. We tend to see a much stronger market (higher demand, more competition) in the first half of the year than the second half, so I feel like this approach gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison.

It’s also important to note that the data I use is based on homes that went under contract in the first half of the year because it’s more reflective of actual buying activity during that period; as opposed to looking at homes that closed in the first half of the year, but may have gone under contract many months prior during different market conditions.

Highlights of a Strong Condo Market

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: How has the Arlington housing market performed in the first half of 2024?

Answer: Sometimes the market surprises you (read: me) and the first half of 2024 was one of those times. After a relatively tame 2023 and prolonged high interest rates, I expected to see fairly stable pricing until rates dropped. By the second week of January, it was clear that buyers had other ideas, and I saw most homes in Northern Virginia selling for 5-10% more than they had in 2023 with intense competition.

How the Data is Organized

For my mid-year reviews, I like to compare the first half of the year to the same period (first half) of prior years, rather than comparing the first half of the current year to the full year in prior years. We tend to see a much stronger market (higher demand, more competition) in the first half of the year than the second half, so I feel like this approach gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison.

It’s also important to note that the data I use is based on homes that went under contract in the first half of the year because it’s more reflective of actual buying activity during that period; as opposed to looking at homes that closed in the first half of the year, but may have gone under contract many months prior during different market conditions.

Strong Price Growth and Competition

Across all property types, average home prices in Arlington increased by 6.8% in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023.

Let’s look at the performance of Arlington’s single-family home (SFH) market in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous four years:

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