Ask Adam: Appreciation Along Columbia Pike

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Adam Gallegos of Arlington-based real estate firm Arbour Realty, voted one of Arlington Magazine’s Best Realtors of 2013 & 2014. Please submit your questions via email.

Q. I own a townhouse on Columbia Pike in Arlington Village. Let’s say it’s worth $290K right now, and the streetcar is completed in 2022. Considering general market increase, and a boost from having a streetcar, what can I expect it to be worth in 2022?

I expect it to be worth $400,627 in 2022.

If I had the ability to make predictions like this I would be living in Las Vegas rather than Arlington, and making a lot more money. As long as you don’t take my response too seriously, I’m happy to play along with the question.

Though many economists argue that year-over-year appreciation averages out to between 3 and 5 percent, there is no way to predict what the next eight years will bring us. The economy could boom, bust or both.

To come up with the number I provided above, I guessed the rate of appreciation for each of the years leading up to 2022. Below are the guesstimates I made:

  • 2014 – 5 percent
  • 2015 – 4 percent
  • 2016 – 3 percent
  • 2017 – 3 percent
  • 2018 – 4 percent
  • 2019 – 4 percent
  • 2020 – 5 percent
  • 2021 – 5 percent

My expectation is that you will see the greatest level of appreciation after the Columbia Pike streetcar is complete (after 2022). In my experience, the mere promise of improved infrastructure is not as strong of a catalyst as the completed project. The completed streetcar will attract the new business and the level of interest you are hoping for as a homeowner along the Columbia Pike corridor.

Let’s touch base in eight years to see how close I am on my prediction.

The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.