This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!
Question: How do you think Trump’s presidency will impact real estate in Arlington/Northern Virginia?
Answer: I’ve never gotten so many questions about the same topic before (shocker…)! Like most of you, I entered election night completely unprepared for the result, so I’ve spent a lot of time getting read up on the impact Trump will have on our real estate market. The following is a summary of my findings sans my personal politics. Chicken Littles beware, I’m an optimist!
The Outlook Is Positive
Most of what I’ve read suggests that the Northern VA real estate market stands to benefit in the short and mid term from Trump, but the long term impact is where the concern lies. Key factors include:
- Increased Defense Spending: More jobs, more office space and more money for the major Defense employers in the area like DoD, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon should increase demand for housing, particularly in the mid and upper markets.
- Tax Cuts: The assumed tax cuts should give a number of fringe buyers enough cash to cover a down payment sooner than they expected. I wonder if this will encourage developers to convert large multi-family buildings from rental apartments to condos.
- Deregulation: Expect major deregulation on banks (Dodd-Frank) and home building to make it easier and cheaper to build new homes, thereby increasing the housing supply, which, in Arlington, is less than half of what economists say it should be in a neutral market. I do expect we’ll see increased demand well before an increase in supply.
- Markets: After the election-night 5% tumble in futures, domestic markets have responded positively, signaling faith in the economic impact of Trump’s presidency. Strong markets tend to signal strong real estate growth.
Still Too Much Uncertainty
Ken Harney, Real Estate writer for the Washington Post, recently admitted, “It’s still too early to assess [the new reality of the real estate market].” Despite early optimism from many industries, a lot of it comes down to Trump’s design and implementation before we can determine the impact. Here are a few major questions:
- Foreign Policy: Trump’s foreign policy changes project to be the biggest destabilizing factor of his presidential agenda and poorly executed foreign policy could easily trump (pun intended) any domestic growth. It’s way too early to start guessing how his foreign policy will impact local real estate, but it’s not too early to start hoping he gets it right!
- Fannie/Freddie: One of the biggest questions facing the residential housing market is how Trump will handle Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, makers of the mortgage industry. Trump has spoken about dissolving these institutions, but hasn’t said much about what would replace them. If he leads a major attack on Fannie and Freddie, look out for drastic changes in access to credit and mortgage rates, for better or worse.
- Interest Rates: It’s time for us to stop telling consumers where we think mortgage rates are going, especially now that there are so many questions about the economy and turnover on Fed’s Board of Governors. Lynn Fisher, VP of Research and Economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association said interest rates might rise from the current 3.6 percent to 5.4 percent by 2019, but she added, “We’ve been wrong continuously for the last couple of years.”
Remember Where You Live
Arlington (and DC Metro) real estate remains one of the most stable real estate investments during difficult economic climates. We faired well during the Great Recession and Business Week ranks us among the top places to live during a recession. Strong fundamentals including Federal Government/Contractor jobs and valuable infrastructure like the Metro and an industry-leading fiber optic network support the local housing market.
The best advice I can give (mostly stolen from Warren Buffet) is don’t try to time the market, bet on America in the long-term, and make real estate decisions based on the needs of you and your family, not the talking heads on CNBC. Oh, and if you decide to bury gold in your backyard, do it quietly, after midnight and during a New Moon.
Here are some good articles I’ve found that hit on a range of topics that impact the local and national real estate market:
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.
Collart Funeral and Procession — “This morning our community gathered to honor fallen Marine Corporal Spencer Collart, a 2020 Washington-Liberty graduate.” [Twitter, WJLA] Fairlington Zoning Fix Floated — “Residents of Fairlington…
Good Monday evening, Arlington. Let’s take a look back at today’s stories and a look forward to tomorrow’s event calendar. 🕗 News recap The following articles were published earlier today…
More Arlington properties could be impacted by 100- and 500-year floods, according to new federal flood insurance rate maps. The county estimates some 300 buildings, up from 172, now risk…
Costs are creeping up for a courtroom makeover in Arlington. County Board members approved an extra $200,000 this past Saturday to complete renovations in Courtroom 10B, a project ambitiously dubbed…
Discover Healing and Renewed Well-Being through Psychotherapy
Life’s challenges can sometimes feel overwhelming, leaving us with feelings of anxiety, depression, and uncertainty. That’s where psychotherapy can make a profound difference. Our dedicated team of experienced therapists is here to guide you on a journey towards emotional and mental well-being.
Why Choose Psychotherapy?
Psychotherapy offers a safe, confidential space for you to explore your thoughts, emotions, and behaviors. Whether you’re facing a specific issue or seeking personal growth, our therapists are here to support you. We believe in the power of conversation, empathy, and understanding to help you gain insights, develop coping strategies, and make positive changes in your life.
Our local therapy practice is delighted to welcome Stacey Cali, Resident in Counseling, who has openings now for new clients. Stacey specializes in therapy for women, couples, teens and families. A graduate of George Mason University’s Clinical Mental Health Counseling Masters Program, Stacey is also passionate about working with people with addiction.
Stacey’s approach: “Therapy’s a powerful combination of reflection, support and action. You’ll find sessions are filled with empowerment, compassion, goal setting and a metaphorical shovel to dig deep to find the root of your difficulties and how to move past them.”
Adds Stacey, “As a therapist who works with women, teens, couples and families, I use a personalized style of counseling, tailored to you as an individual. You’re the expert in your life, I’m just here to guide you towards transformation and healing.”
Stacey grew up in the area and decided to stay here, “since it’s close to beaches, mountains, and cities.” “In my spare time you can find me doing yoga, hiking, or gardening. I also love lounging and streaming shows or movies. I enjoy trying diverse restaurants and trying new food, my favorites now are sushi & Mexican.”
Whether you’re expecting your first baby or you just had your first baby, we want to meet YOU! All those feelings you’re having are NORMAL and it’s not just you. Please don’t isolate yourself – that’s quicksand.
Mamistad groups are