Join Club

Peter’s Take: Can APS Get a Grip on Enrollment Projections?

Peter Rousselot

Peter’s Take is a weekly opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

ARLnow.com reported last week that APS has hired a consultant to study the way APS projected enrollment during the recent high school boundary adjustment process.

Discussion

APS needs independent professional help on enrollment forecasts (and closely-related issues like per-seat construction costs). Since literally tens of millions of our tax dollars are at stake, properly designed consultant studies can produce benefits that far exceed the costs. As a community, we need a fully-transparent conversation on these issues.

December’s HS boundary decision

The period leading up to APS’ December decision to adjust the boundaries for Arlington’s three current comprehensive high schools (Yorktown, W-L, Wakefield) was plagued by many enrollment data errors that savvy parents identified and called out. Doubts justifiably were cast on the competence and credibility of APS staff who prepared the data.

Last week’s Discovery Elementary meeting

Last week, the Discovery Elementary PTA hosted an important meeting to discuss policy issues surrounding APS’ booming enrollment. Over 100 people attended. Once again, savvy and engaged parents were quick to spot new errors and inconsistencies in some of the APS slides presented at the meeting.

Discussing her reactions on social media, one parent captured the sentiments of many when she observed:

I hope parents will push for full transparency in the projections going forward. While it’s ridiculous that parents have to be the ones to catch the mistakes, it’s even worse when APS hides the numbers and the methodology so that no one can even see the errors. During the boundary process, many of us thought that Yorktown’s projections looked way too low, and it appeared that APS was making wacky assumptions as to how many kids would transfer out of YHS in order to make their numbers “work.” But APS wouldn’t release their transfer projections and they still won’t. If they had released them during the boundary process, perhaps this mistake could have been fixed before they voted to change boundaries.

January’s consultant study

The best enrollment forecast study prepared to date is a consultant study presented at a joint County Board-School Board meeting in January. A related joint study presented at that meeting concluded (at p. 23) that Arlington’s total population aged 0-14 will exceed 40,000 by 2030.

The County and APS should continue to refine the methodologies and conclusions of January’s consultant study as we move forward.

JFAC’s role

As I discussed last week, the Joint Facilities Advisory Commission (JFAC) has an important role to play with respect to county-wide facilities planning decisions. JFAC should play a leadership role in fostering continuing updates and improvements to January’s consultant study.

Conclusion

Arlington needs to make the best possible policy decisions regarding what new schools, parks, and other public infrastructure we will need, and when and where we will need them. To do that requires us to have the best possible forecast data for these purposes.

As I noted in December, Arlington must demonstrate to the public that it has fiscally-sustainable plans to accommodate the substantial development and population growth that Arlington says will occur between now and 2040.

It is neither prudent, realistic nor fair to fail to plan for this growth because some people think or hope that it might not occur. Instead, we must plan now for the consequences of our most accurate forecasts.

Recent Stories

Good Monday evening, Arlington. Let’s take a look back at today’s stories and a look forward to tomorrow’s event calendar. 🕗 News recap The following articles were published earlier today…

An 18-year-old Arlington woman is facing a litany of charges after an reported bike theft led to violence. The incident happened Sunday evening near the intersection of S. Walter Reed…

What do I do if school doesn’t fit my kid? That’s the question that so many of the parents and families ask when they’re looking at small independent schools like…

There is a new play area for kids inside Ballston Quarter with plenty of pint-sized attractions. Located on the first floor of the mall, near the about-to-close Macy’s, Junior Playland…

Well-Paid Maids recently unveiled a new scheduling system.

That means it’s easier than ever to book your professional home cleaning with the only certified living-wage home cleaning service in the D.C. area.

Here’s what to expect when you book your cleaning:

  1. Select your location.

  2. Choose your service (i.e. 1 BD/1BA). (This is also where you’ll see the rate.)

  3. Pick your cleaner. (If you don’t have a preference, opt for “any available.”)

  4. Schedule a date and time. You can also set up recurring cleanings and get a discount!

  5. Enter your information and reserve.

Read More

Submit your own Announcement here.

Are you facing life’s challenges, feeling overwhelmed, or seeking personal growth? Embrace the path to emotional well-being with our expert psychotherapy services!

Why Choose Us?

Our team of compassionate and experienced psychotherapists is here to guide you on your journey to inner peace, self-discovery, and positive change. We provide a safe and supportive environment where you can explore your thoughts and feelings without judgment.

What We Offer:
✔️ Individual Therapy
✔️ Couples Counseling
✔️ Anxiety & Stress Management
✔️ Depression Treatment
✔️ Trauma Healing
✔️ Self-Esteem Building
✔️ Life Transitions Support
✔️ And Much More!

Read More

Submit your own Announcement here.

Portofino Italian Wine Dinner, April 6, 6:30pm

Four course Italian dinner, paired with 2 wines each. The wines will be served “blind” and notes on each wine will be discussed. The event is coordinated with Elite Wine Importers and The Portofino Restaurant. The dinner is on Saturday,

×

Subscribe to our mailing list