Support

Ask Eli: Q1 condo market review

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: How is the condo market performing so far in 2022?

Answer: The condo market has looked very different than the single-family/townhouse market since COVID struck. While the latter has exploded, the former struggled initially, but has stabilized and strengthened over the past 12 months. With the first quarter of 2022 behind us, let’s look at the data driving the Arlington and Washington, D.C. condo markets.

Prices Mostly Flat in Arlington and D.C.

I generally find that median, instead of average, price changes are more reflective of what most buyers/sellers experience in the market. The median condo price in Arlington is up 8.1% year over year in Q1 2022 and 2.6% in D.C. However, you can clearly see that the overall price trend over the last two years is mostly flat in both markets and up slightly from pre-pandemic prices.

Interestingly, the average and median $/SqFt in D.C. has decreased slightly over the last 12 months, but increased slightly in Arlington over the same period. My best guess is that it’s a reflection of less demand for smaller downtown condos (smaller homes tends to have higher $/SqFt).

Both Arlington and D.C. had noticeable increases in average sold prices year over year in Q1 2022, jumping 10.3% and 8.2%, respectively, with similar increases in Q4 2021. My best guess on this trend is that it’s a reflection of some buyers giving up on the single-family/townhouse market and turning to larger, more expensive condos as an alternative.

Months of Supply Finding its Level

Months of Supply, a metric that measures supply and demand (lower numbers reflect a more competitive market, favoring sellers), seems to be leveling off with relatively similar Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 readings in Arlington (~1.25 months) and D.C. (~2 months) after sharp increases during the first 18 months of the pandemic.

From a housing economics perspective, these readings suggest a strong sellers’ market in which one can expect competition and price appreciation. It will be interesting to see if this plays out in Q2 as more supply comes to market (Q2 brings the most inventory to market) while interest rates rapidly increase.

Sales Noticeably Slower in Arlington and D.C.

Despite signs of a strong, more competitive market, the overall pace of the market remains relatively slow with average days on market for Arlington and D.C. hovering just under 40.

Active and New Listing Volume Still High

The number of condos being listed for sale in Q1 2022 was less than a year ago, but still high relative to previous Q1 listing volume in Arlington and D.C. This fact makes it impressive that Months of Supply (measures supply and demand) has dropped to strong seller market levels because it shows that, despite an unusually high number of people moving out of condos, there’s significant demand to absorb the new inventory.

Looking forward, I expect that higher interest rates will have a much more immediate and significant impact on condo demand than on single-family and townhouse demand and I think that Q2 condo data will reflect that.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at 703-539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. 703-390-9460.

Recent Stories

A 6 BD/6.5 BA home that sold for $2,125,000 and a 2 BD/1 BA home that sold for $550,000 are included in Most and Least Expensive.

Daily Debrief for Nov 30, 2022

Good Wednesday evening, Arlington. Today we published 5 articles that were read a total of 12854 times… so far. 📈 Top stories The following are the most-read articles for today…

Arlington’s fire and police unions are poised to lose a battle to change the pay scale the county uses — one that union representatives say contributes to ongoing staffing shortages….

Shop Local Winter Bazaar

Shop local this holiday season at the Winter Bazaar taking place Saturday, December 17-18.

Grab some friends and sign up for Parks & Rec’s Eugene J. Green Memorial Winter Basketball League! Adults 18+ can register teams of up to 12 people for the ten-game season. Cost is $765 per team. Games are Mondays and/or Wednesdays at Arlington Mill Community Center starting the week of Jan. 4. Sign up here by Dec. 11.

Submit your own Announcement here.

National Chamber Ensemble – Holiday Cheer!

NCE’s Holiday Concert will bring the finest classical masterpieces and holiday favorites together for the whole family. The festivities begin with Leroy Anderson’s classic “Sleigh Ride” and “Chanukkah Festival”, music from the Nutcracker and by J.S. Bach.

Outstanding Young Artist

Washington-Liberty Annual Holiday Bazaar

Join us Saturday December 3 from 10 to 4 p.m. at W-L High School, for this much anticipated Arlington holiday tradition! We will be featuring over 65 vendors for gift shopping, our student clubs and activities fundraising booths, and food

×

Subscribe to our mailing list