This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: How was the market for single-family homes in Arlington during the first half of the year?
Answer: All it took was 7% interest rates to stabilize prices… which is exactly what the Fed’s goal was and the Arlington single-family home market is a great example of it working. Coming into the year, there were signs that prices would fall in 2023 if rates remained high, but due to a historic supply squeeze, prices remained stable despite a significant drop in demand (the drop in supply was more significant than the drop in demand).
The data below is based on sales of single-family homes in Arlington during the first six months of the past five years.
Competition Eases, Prices Stabilize
The Arlington single-family market will always be competitive, but the intensity of the last two years has softened and brought some stability to prices:
- The average home price increased by 2.3% to over $1,360,000 and the median price increased by 1.7% to $1,220,000. If you remove new construction sales from the data, the average sale price actual decreased by .6% to just over $1,241,000.
- Over the past five years, the average home price in Arlington has increased by nearly 27%
- On average, homes are selling for just over their original asking price in 2023.
- 14% of homes sold in the first half of 2023 sold for $2M+ and only 32% sold for $1M or less
- If you remove 2020 sales numbers (COVID lockdown), there were 26% fewer sales in the first half of 2023 than the 5yr average. That is almost exclusively due to low supply, not low demand.
- 68% of sales in 2023 were at or above the asking price, less than 2021 and 2022 but just above 2019 and 2020
- 64% of homes sold within 10 days on the market, last year it was 74%
- Homes that went under contract within one week on market sold for an average of 3.9% over the asking price, in 2022 the average was 6.8% and in 2019 it was 2%.
Zip Code Prices All Over the Place
There was no consistency in average price change across Arlington zip codes:
- Note: 22213 only has 8 sales in 2023 so the data isn’t very reliable, I considered not including it
- 22201 led the way with an 8.9% year-over-year increase
- After massive growth in 2021 and 2022, the 22205 zip code had the worst performance, down 8.5% from last year. However, this is not a reflection of actual home values dropping in 22205 by that much, but mostly the make-up of the data set.
- 22204, the zip code I now call home, remains the only zip code for a third year in a row with an average home price below $1M
- 22207, the best bellwether for Arlington single-family market conditions, continued its steady appreciation clocking in at 4.2% over 2022 to an average of $1,609,000. Without new construction sales, the average price increased by 1.8% to $1,455,000.
There is no relief in sight for interest rates, with many rates returning to the 7%+ mark as of last week. Expect a noticeably less competitive, more balanced real estate market in the second half of the year. Buyers will have a better chance at finding value and sellers should level expectations.
The big question is when will rates come down (many expect to see 4-5% in the next 12-18 months) and what will that do to prices. If inventory remains low, which it’s likely to do for years to come, I think that we’ll see another surge in demand and prices when rates break through 5.5-6%. If that coincides with Q1/Q2 of 2024, expect that surge to be amplified. Until then, I expect prices to remain relatively flat with competition light to moderate, depending on the season.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C A
Good Friday evening, Arlington. Let’s take a look back at today’s stories and a look forward to tomorrow’s event calendar. 🕗 News recap The following articles were published earlier today…
There’s no official word on its website, but it looks like Bar Ivy in Clarendon may have closed permanently.
There’s persistence, and then there is Audrey Clement and her decade-plus effort to get elected to local office in Arlington. Clement talked with ARLnow editor Scott Brodbeck to talk about…
Makers Union, an upscale gastropub, is set to open its doors in Pentagon City next week, says Alex Brown, the restaurant’s director of operations. This opening marks the third Makers Union location in the D.C. Metropolitan area, following the debut of its Reston location three years ago and a recent opening at the Wharf in early October.
Children’s Weekday Program (CWP) is a non-profit preschool rooted in a play-based philosophy. We focus on developing a love of learning and exploration, cooperation, empathy, and independence.
Our caring and experienced educators create opportunities for children 16 months to 5 years old to play, learn, and grow in a nurturing environment of child-centered and developmentally appropriate experiences.
Initially established more than 50 years ago in South Arlington, CWP continues to be a lauded program in the Northern Virginia area. We are extremely proud to have been recognized as a Best Preschool in Northern Virginia Magazine for the last 4 years.
Located now in North Arlington at 2666 Military Road, CWP offers a part-time parents day out and preschool program with options to extend care both before and after school. We offer a supportive and inclusive school community for children and parents alike and welcome all families to join our school!
The Optimist Club of Arlington is holding its 77th annual Christmas tree sale!
This year, the tree sale will be held at the Knights of Columbus (5115 Little Falls Road). The lot opens for sales on November 24th. The Optimist Club is selling small and large trees ranging from tabletop size to 10 foot tall trees! Wreaths, garland, tree stands, and White House Christmas ornaments will also be for sale.
100% of all proceeds go towards helping Arlington County youth.
For more information, please visit the Arlington Optimists website at https://optimistclubofarlingtonva.org/.
Holiday Art Show featuring artists: Peter Fitzgerald, Claire Plante, Alanna Rivera, and Suzy Scollon. At the Barcroft Community House, 800 South Buchanan St., Arlington, VA. Dec. 8 from, 2 PM to 8 PM and Dec. 9 from 10 AM to
2023 Christmas Tree Sales Begin
Saturday, December 2
Get your holiday decorating off to the right start this year! We will be selling 150 Fraser firs, freshly cut and delivered from Sparta, North Carolina.