Join Club

Ask Eli: Predicting the upcoming 2023 real estate market

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channelEnjoy!

Question: Can you provide any additional data on what the market will do for the remainder of the year?

Answer: If you have enjoyed my real estate columns over the years, I would greatly appreciate your vote for Arlington Magazine’s Best Of Arlington, Real Estate Agent (in the Home section) and encourage you to support all of your favorite Arlington businesses with a meaningful vote!

Last week I published an article highlighting that the second half of the year is easier on buyers than the first half. This week we can explore some other predictable market trends to help buyers and sellers anticipate the upcoming market.

New Listings to Spike in Two Weeks, Then Fall Sharply

There will be a predictable spike in new listings after Labor Day, proceeded by a rapid decline through the end of the year.

  • Just 17% of total annual listing volume comes to market in Q4, with less than 7% of total listing volume over the last two months of the year
  • 46% of homes are listed for sale during 1/3 of the year from early March to late June
  • The market goes on summer break with everybody else from late June through August
  • Note: this chart is for Arlington but the same trends can be applied across the region

Our Q4 Lows Will be REALLY Low

Broken record time… we are experiencing historically low listing volume with sales down 25% from the historical average across the DC Metro. Total listing volume in Q2 (when we have the most inventory come to market) was on par with Q4 volume in previous years (least amount of inventory) so we will likely see just a trickle of homes hitting the market in Q4 this year.

Buyer Activity/Demand Will Also Jump Soon, Then Fall Around Holidays

Along with a pop in listing volume after Labor Day, there’s usually a coinciding jump in buyer showing and contract activity that lasts through mid/late October before nose-diving in November.

But Sellers Will Continue to Reduce Asking Prices

Courtesy of Altos Research, the chart below highlights the annual cycle of the percentage of homes reducing the asking price. The diamond and circular markers represent Aug. 13 of each year and show that we are just past the halfway point of a sharply increasing number of price reductions through the end of the year as sellers fight to attract buyers before the holidays.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C A

Recent Stories

A large fire department and police response is on scene at a fatal house fire in McLean, near the Arlington border. The fire was reported around 9:15 a.m. on the…

Last week ARLnow received an interesting reader email. The writer’s suggestion: we should beautify Arlington County by encouraging those with inflatable holiday decorations to keep them inflated at all times,…

Morning Notes

Palestine Rally in Pentagon City — On Saturday afternoon: “Palestine rally at S. Hayes + Army Navy Drive in Pentagon City. Expect delays.” [Twitter, Twitter, Twitter] VHC Details New Facility…

A woman was shot this afternoon in the Green Valley neighborhood. The shooting happened around 1 p.m., reportedly near the intersection of S. Kemper Road and S. Oxford Street. Photos…

About Latinas Leading Tomorrow (LLT): Latinas Leading Tomorrow is a dynamic 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization dedicated to empowering young Latina women through education, mentorship, and leadership development. We are committed to fostering a community of future leaders who will make a significant impact to the community.

Job Description: We are seeking a passionate and dedicated Part-time Executive Director to lead our organization into its next phase of growth and impact. The ideal candidate will be a visionary leader who can oversee day-to-day operations, drive fundraising efforts, and cultivate relationships with stakeholders. This is a 1099 position; Remote position with ability to attend DMV events; 8-10 hours a week; $35-40/per hour.

Key Responsibilities:

Oversee program operations, including educational and community initiatives.
Ensure compliance with legal and regulatory requirements, maintaining trust and accountability.
Develop and execute a strategic vision aligned with our mission and values.
Lead fundraising efforts in partnership with the Board Members.
Cultivate relationships with community partners, schools, educators, and donors.
Demonstrate strong leadership skills, fostering a positive organizational culture.
Communicate effectively with diverse stakeholders and make compelling public presentations.
Promote inclusivity and collaboration throughout the organization.

Read More

Submit your own Announcement here.

Children’s Weekday Program (CWP) is a non-profit preschool rooted in a play-based philosophy. We focus on developing a love of learning and exploration, cooperation, empathy, and independence.

Our caring and experienced educators create opportunities for children 16 months to 5 years old to play, learn, and grow in a nurturing environment of child-centered and developmentally appropriate experiences.

Initially established more than 50 years ago in South Arlington, CWP continues to be a lauded program in the Northern Virginia area. We are extremely proud to have been recognized as a Best Preschool in Northern Virginia Magazine for the last 4 years.

Located now in North Arlington at 2666 Military Road, CWP offers a part-time parents day out and preschool program with options to extend care both before and after school. We offer a supportive and inclusive school community for children and parents alike and welcome all families to join our school!

Read More

Submit your own Announcement here.

Live Standup Comedy Starring Casey James Salengo (Jimmy Kimmel Live,…

Standup Comedy Starring Casey James Salengo (Comedy Central, Jimmy Kimmel Live)

Friday, December 29

Headliner: Casey James Salengo

Casey James Salengo is a NYC-based comedian who’s been featured on Comedy Central Presents, Jimmy Kimmel Live, This Week at the Cellar,


Subscribe to our mailing list