The population of every jurisdiction in Northern Virginia, including Arlington, increased between 2023 and 2024 for the first time in seven years.
The region as a whole saw its largest population increase in quite a few years, rising by 35,181, according to new estimates from the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. Arlington’s population estimate increased by just under 2%, while the region as a whole grew by 1.4%.
This continues ongoing area-wide population growth that has continued almost uninterrupted for decades — with the exception of 2021, when the region’s population declined by an estimated 7,000 people during the pandemic.
The last time every single jurisdiction in Northern Virginia experienced growth was in 2016-17, according to the analysis.
While higher than 2023’s figure, Arlington’s 2024 population estimate remains slightly below totals recorded in the two years immediately preceding the pandemic.
Across Northern Virginia, the 2023-to-2024 population increase was attributable to migration from outside the U.S. coupled with natural growth (births minus deaths).
Net domestic outmigration, by contrast, remains high both in Arlington and across Northern Virginia.
Arlington saw a net outbound domestic migration total of 310 people in 2024, according to estimates. Regionally, nearly 15,000 more people left Northern Virginia for other U.S. locations over the year than moved in.
But that was more than offset by increases of about 33,500 from international areas plus a natural increase of just under 16,600.
Still, the number of people leaving the region decreased compared to the last few years. The highest net domestic-migration drop across Northern Virginia, just over 38,000, was recorded in 2022.
While the lower net-domestic-outmigration number likely is encouraging to local leaders, the most recent figures could be a case of some people wanting to move out but not being able to do so easily.
Slowing levels of relocation outside the region “may be attributable to high mortgage rates (starting mid-2022) … which discourage and make relocating harder,” Northern Virginia Regional Commission analysts suggested.
The Northern Virginia Regional Commission is a consortium of 13 local counties, cities and towns.
In percentage as well as raw-number terms, Fairfax County had the greatest population change from 2023 to 2024, growing by an estimated 3.6%, according to the report.
“No jurisdiction in Northern Virginia has grown that much in one year’s time since 2011-12, when it was also Fairfax County,” the Northern Virginia Regional Commission report notes.
But even in Fairfax County, there is concern about out-migration, particularly among people in their 30s, 40s and 50s.
“People are moving to Richmond or Atlanta or Texas, places where they can find housing,” said Fairfax County Supervisor Dalia Palchik (D-Providence).
During a recent Fairfax County roundtable on economic-development efforts, Palchik noted that she was one of four siblings who had grown up in Northern Virginia.
“None of the others chose to live here [as adults],” she said, citing home costs and traffic congestion as factors.
The population figures released on Thursday come from data gathered prior to the Trump administration’s efforts both to require federal workers back in the office and to begin slashing the federal workforce.
One of the D.C. region’s biggest challenges going forward could be maintaining information-technology firms and personnel.
Growth in that sector is expected to average 4% annually across the local region but 9% to 22% in competing metro areas, according to data compiled by the consulting firm Camoin Associates for the Fairfax County government.
Those projections came before the return of Trump in January, which may accelerate fears of the sector’s local vitality.
“This is an area of concern, something we should be paying attention to,” said Rachel Selsky, CEO of Camoin Associates.
The region’s continued economic success is “not something to take for granted,” she said.
