Return-to-office mandates at Amazon and in the federal government could provide an economic boon to Arlington, experts say.
As President Donald Trump’s executive order to end many remote-work arrangements sent shockwaves through federal workplaces last week, Amazon employees this month also began working five days a week at HQ2.
How many more workers will now be commuting into Arlington and patronizing the county’s businesses remains somewhat unclear.
While Amazon’s decision affects about 8,000 employees, the impacts of federal changes are still playing out. This is especially true as Trump has also discussed dramatic cuts to federal agencies and the relocation of many jobs away from the D.C. area.
At least for the time being, however, increased emphasis on in-person work presents some reasons for optimism in Arlington.
“Office workers are important to Arlington’s economy, and decisions to return to the office — whether full-time or hybrid — will positively impact local businesses and the office market,” Arlington Economic Development (AED) spokesperson Destiny Esper told ARLnow.
Experts predict more foot traffic, particularly in National Landing, which for several years has been beefing up its transit infrastructure alongside HQ2. Additionally, the federal return-to-office order could help curb Arlington’s high office vacancy rate — although experts warn the move won’t solve larger economic challenges brought on by remote work.
Terry Clower, director for the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, cautioned against leaping to strong conclusions — particularly when it comes to the federal workforce.
“What I’m expecting for this is that there’s lots of shouting, lots of hollering, and it may matter some,” Clower said. “All of these things are going to have an impact on Arlington. I don’t think it’s going to be as big of a positive or as big of a negative in Arlington as, maybe, some of the other jurisdictions in our region.”
How many workers are impacted in Arlington?
The decisions at Amazon and the White House impact a significant portion of Arlington’s workforce.
About 23,800 of the county’s 221,400 workers are employees of the federal government, while about 8,000 people work at HQ2, according to current estimates from the county and Amazon. Put together, that’s about one out of every seven workers.
We know that Amazon’s employees were previously working three days a week in the office. But the story at the federal level is more complicated.
Arlington County doesn’t have an estimate on how many of the county’s federal employees have remote work arrangements. County-wide, about 21% of Arlington’s workforce works from home, according to the most recent five-year estimate.
Across the entirety of the federal government’s 2.28 million civilian personnel, meanwhile, about 46% were eligible to telework in August 2024, according to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.
The OMB did not respond to an emailed question on how many teleworkers are in Arlington. The Department of Defense, the county’s biggest federal employer, also did not respond to questions on how the recent executive order will impact Pentagon employees.
The order requires federal departments and agencies to “take all necessary steps to terminate remote work arrangements and require employees to return to work in-person.”
“Federal office buildings sit mostly empty, particularly in Washington, D.C.-area agency headquarters offices, devastating the local economy and serving as a national embarrassment,” an accompanying presidential memo alleges. “Virtually unrestricted telework has led to poorer government services and made it more difficult to supervise and train government workers.”
The order has led to dismay among many federal workers, some of whom have disputed claims that remote work worsens job performance and have raised practical concerns about commutes and a lack of space in available offices.
A November op-ed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy — both of whom were on track to run the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency — suggests that such a shift “would result in a wave of voluntary resignations that we welcome.”
However, Clower noted a stipulation in the executive order that “department and agency heads shall make exemptions they deem necessary.” He also pointed out that the order is already facing pushback from some federal unions.
“Obviously managers and supervisors can be called back to the office, and that’s a number, but again, I think a lot of this other stuff … is very much now a court battle,” Clower said.
How will federal work changes affect Arlington?
Given the number of unanswered questions, experts are hedging their bets on what federal workforce changes will mean for Arlington.
“We do not have a good estimate of how many more people will work from offices located in Arlington over the next year,” Esper said on behalf of AED. “However, given the federal return-to-office mandate, we are likely to see an increase in our daytime worker population.”
It’s possible that more workers in Arlington will push the federal government to use more office space. This could provide some benefit to the county, which has struggled to fill office vacancies amid a shift to remote and hybrid work.
Clower doesn’t expect to see dramatic changes here, however.
“It might help some on the margins, but it does not fix Arlington’s long-term problem of declining office occupancy, particularly for older buildings,” he said.
Esper agreed, noting that the county is continuing to seek new uses for what is currently office space through the Commercial Market Resiliency Initiative (CMRI).
“Trends around return to office (RTO) decisions continue to be case-by-case, with factors like company size, culture, and industry playing a significant role,” she said. “While the new federal Return to In-Person Work memorandum may increase leasing activity and help reduce vacancy rates, the most effective way to address vacancies is through office conversions and redevelopment.”
AED Director Ryan Touhill added that his department’s broader strategy remains mostly the same.
“We continue to monitor decisions by the new administration and remain committed to responding to any impacts, whether positive or negative,” he said. “Our current strategy focuses on diversification, resiliency, and creating a place where people can live, work, visit, and thrive.”
“We remain committed to investing in tourism, the innovation economy, small businesses, and the transformation of vacant office space, while continuing to build thriving neighborhoods,” he added.
Reasons for optimism in National Landing
Setting aside questions for federal workers, experts expect relatively straightforward, positive impacts from Amazon’s shift to five days a week in-person.
Since the company’s return-to-office requirement went into effect Jan. 2, experts say the increase in visits to HQ2 has meant more dollars for local businesses. Past investments in the area’s infrastructure, meanwhile, leave it primed for any future growth.
As anticipated, Amazon workers now are spending more time — and money — in Pentagon City, Crystal City and Potomac Yard, Tracy Sayegh Gabriel, president and CEO of the National Landing BID, told ARLnow.
“We’ve observed a noticeable uptick in foot traffic, with businesses reporting a steady rise in patronage, particularly during peak commuting hours,” she said.
The BID, which aims to “create engaging experiences that enhance daily life” for workers and residents, hopes build on economic momentum this year with programming highlighting local retailers and public spaces.
These efforts lean on years of investment in the area’s transportation options, which leave National Landing transit systems “well-placed to handle increased travel demand,” Abigail Hillerich, a spokesperson for the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA), told ARLnow.
Both traffic congestion and transit use in Northern Virginia remain below pre-pandemic levels, Hillerich said. A recent analysis found that the region’s highways have about 2.8% to 4.1% less weekday traffic than before the pandemic.
Gabriel also cited a $4 billion transit investment in ongoing projects such as the CC2DCA bridge, a new east entrance to the Crystal City Metro station and an expansion of the neighborhood’s Virginia Railway Express station.
She is optimistic about what 2025 holds for National Landing.
“More workers mean more foot traffic and patrons to buoy our strong and growing local retail scene,” Gabriel said. “Our community has been excited to welcome more employees back to the area and our small businesses are already feeling the positive impact.”
