A slowdown in new restaurant openings could be on the horizon in Arlington.
While dozens of new eateries remain on track to open over the next few months, one data source suggests that some restaurateurs could be tapping the brakes on new projects.
Since mid-February, just a single business — Buffalo & Bergen in Clarendon — applied for a license to serve alcoholic beverages in Arlington, according to online records.
That’s unusually slow for a county where applications for liquor licenses typically roll in at a steady clip.
This year, Virginia ABC has issued seven active licenses to new establishments and renewed three others. That’s a decline from 2024, when the agency issued 14 licenses from January to May and averaged 2.3 new licenses per month.
“The last thing that I think people are thinking about right now is dining out, and so there’s a lot of uncertainty,” Restaurant Association Metropolitan Washington (RAMW) President Shawn Townsend told ARLnow.
While organizations like the Arlington Chamber of Commerce and Virginia Restaurant, Lodging & Travel Association do not track restaurant opening data, both groups say they’re aware of declining foot traffic and revenue in restaurants to ARLnow.
Chamber CEO Kate Bates said spending shifts in Arlington are particularly linked to federal workforce reductions and “broader economic uncertainty.” Unemployment claims spiked in March and remained high in April, according to state data.
Bates also pointed to setbacks such as staff shortages, supply chain disruptions and rising food costs in response to the recent drop in Virginia ABC license activity.
“It is unfortunately not surprising that these pressures may dissuade potential restaurant owners from opening a new business,” she said.
Whiplash to national issues has also created a hostile climate for business owners, with fickle tariffs and Immigration Customs & Enforcement agents recently targeting D.C.-area establishments, Townsend said.
Coupled with what Townsend called local “legislative hurdles” like the county’s newly increased meals tax rate, existing establishments are mulling closures.
A RAMW survey released in March revealed that 44% of the D.C.-area’s “full-service casual restaurants” report they are “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to close this year. The District is currently losing about 1.5 restaurants per week, Townsend said.
Region-wide challenges for restaurants come as the nationwide restaurant industry appears to be losing some of its post-pandemic momentum. Yelp’s 2024 State of the Restaurant Industry report shows that while restaurant openings are growing, the growth is decelerating.
As consumers grapple with inflation, the slowdown has particularly affected “higher-end dining concepts,” Yelp reported. This coincides with what Townsend called a “vanishing middle class” of fine dining.
“The concepts that you’re seeing open, they’re less full-service, more fast-casual,” he said.
While new Virginia ABC applications dry up, this summer is still expected to be a busy one for openings in Arlington. At least two dozen restaurants are anticipated to open later this year.
