Welcome to Kami’s Korner where we’ll take a deep dive into Arlington’s condominium market by focusing on what’s coming next. From emerging developments to shifting trends, this space will spotlight the opportunities and insights shaping the future of condo living in Arlington.
To understand where the market is today, let’s look at how the condo market has changed. What began as an affordable housing alternative for first-time homebuyers has become the pinnacle of true luxury urban living typical of a world-class city. Let’s explore the 20-year evolution of new condos in Arlington.
Early 2000s: Affordability Focused. Condominiums in the early 2000s were aimed primarily at first-time homebuyers. Affordability was key and this type of housing in Arlington wasn’t glamorous quite yet. The market was steady and interest rates, at just under 7% in 2001, were deemed attractive. Most buildings had 100- 200 units and the average size for a new condominium in Arlington was 950 sq ft.
Mid-2000s: Market Heats Up. In 2003 the market began to pick up speed, fueled by the abundance of financing and essentially loans that required no documentation or proof of affordability. During this time Ballston saw several apartment to condo conversions. Condo units were generally designed as apartments so unit sizes were smaller among all unit types. Finishes were acceptable but not great. This is when granite countertops became the epitome of quality.
New builds like Liberty Center in Ballston shifted the average size down while finish quality and livability of design improved. It was probably the best building of that generation. Like many others at that time there was a rush to buy and buildings were very successful in pre-sale.
Buildings were larger at that time because Fannie Mae didn’t have as many condo financing restrictions and they essentially set the standard in the secondary mortgage market. Odyssey for example, delivered 275 condominium units in 2006 with what we call a “spread mix” of unit types- studios to 3 bedroom plus units. This helps with pace since multiple demographics can be targeted at once.
2008-2010: Luxury Begins to Emerge. A transition began right as the real estate market was turning. Waterview in bustling urban Rosslyn was converted from apartments to condo in 2008. Simultaneously, luxury condos were introduced by Turnberry LTD out of Florida and that was the first time the market had seen something of this caliber.
Turnberry started pre-sales in 2005 and delivered in 2008. Presales there had been strong, but many did not settle when the building ultimately delivered in 2008 because the market was turning. With only 41 sales at the time, we took over the program and successfully sold out by 2012. Pricing there was 20% higher per square foot than neighborhood resales.
2010 to 2015: The Mid Market Surges. During this time there was plenty of mid-market product being delivered throughout Arlington for those with more discerning taste and preferring to stay urban. With the introduction of new hip retail and restaurants, boutique and residential Clarendon emerged as the most desirable walkable neighborhood on the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor. It was particularly attractive among the 20-something crowd. Many of my fellow Virginia Tech graduates that grew up in Northern Virginia desired to live here at this time.
2015: Market Matures. As the RB corridor became more desirable the demand for larger units continued to emerge. Design turned heavily urban with projects like Abdo’s Gaslight Square. Condominiums were still thought of as an alternative to a townhouse. This offered large units spread out over multiple floors but the maintenance-free lifestyle of a condo.
In 2018 sales began at Pierce. Fueled by the luxury market at Turnberry and DC overall, a true modern luxury product was reborn. Projects in Washington DC like 2501 M and CityCenterDC helped propel the local market with high-end luxury condo offerings that rivaled any major city in the US. Pricing was again 20% higher than neighborhood resales, high-end quality finishes were introduced, demand for services increased, and the typical buyer started to shift older and more financially qualified.
2020: Stability through Covid. Arlington prospects were seeking a lifestyle change. Many were selling larger homes and wanted to downsize without downgrading. As the baby boomers aged (born 1946-1960), Northern Virginia residents were seeking condos with ample entertaining space, real storage and respectable closets, large owners’ suites, a furnishable-sized terrace or balcony, and a good view. Rosslyn provides some of the most monumental (every pun intended) views in the entire metropolitan area.
So how does this evolution take us to the next generation of upcoming buildings? Now that Arlington has been established as a real luxury condo location with a proven deep market, it will continue to see condo product that pushes those expectations. Residences will be larger, pricing will be 30% higher than current resales, hotel level services are expected, residence and common area design will be exciting, cutting edge, and world class. We anticipate that Rosslyn will continue to be the Mecca for luxury condominium development well into the next decade.
Do send along your questions, inquiries, and design preferences for the next generation of condominiums to our market. My personal email is: [email protected]
