Author: Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How has the Arlington single-family home market performed in the first half of 2026?

Answer: Arlington’s single-family detached (SFD) market got busier and more competitive in the first half of 2026, yet prices increased at their slowest pace since 2023.

More Competition, Modest Appreciation (Resale Market)

Note: this data is for resales of single-family detached (SFD) homes; I have a separate analysis of the new construction market further down.

• The average and median price increased 3.5% and 1.9%, respectively

• Over the past five years, the average and median price increased 13.9% and 11.1%, respectively

• The average and median price of a home increased to $1.44M and $1.299M, respectively

• Demand and competition rose to the highest levels since 2022, with 66% of homes selling within the first ten days on market and 68% of homes selling at or above the original asking price

• The average buyer paid 1.3% more than the original asking price, compared to 2025 when the average buyer paid 0.3% less than the original asking price

• Buyers of homes that went under contract within the first week on market paid an average of 4.7% over the asking price

Dig Deeper: Performance Varied by Size, Price Point

The appreciation gap between the average price (3.5%) and median price (1.9%) matters. The average is more sensitive to expensive sales. In 2026, 15.7% of closed resales sold for $2M or more, up from 12.7% in 2025. At the other end of the market, only 21.7% sold below $1M, down from 24.4%. That shift toward higher-priced homes helped lift the average faster than the median.

Average and median prices are useful, but neither tells us whether gains were shared evenly across the market. To test that, I divided the closed resale market into four sold-price quartiles for each year. Each quartile represents one-fourth of that year’s sales, from the least expensive 25% to the most expensive 25%. (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How much of an impact do you think the ROAD to Housing Act will have on housing affordability in Arlington?

Answer: The Road to Housing Act became law ten days ago, with the stated goal of improving housing affordability in the United States.

I don’t see many policies in the Act that will improve affordability in the Arlington/Northern VA/DC Metro markets, outside of incentives for more affordable multi-family housing, but there are policies that should improve affordability in other markets that are more saturated with institutional investors that own swaths of single-family homes (e.g. Atlanta and Phoenix) and for manufactured/mobile homes.

The Local Conversation Needs to Change

If we are going to improve affordability in our market, most of the change has to be done locally/regionally, not nationally, but it requires a paradigm shift in how we discuss and solve for housing affordability.

Affordability Disconnect: Near Term Expectations Not Realistic
A disconnect between housing affordability expectations and reality prevents the right community and political conversations from happening. We expect/demand housing affordability immediately, ignoring the difficulty, and consequences, of achieving it that quickly.

Stable and healthy housing affordability is a long-term process requiring gradual change over a 10-15+ year period.

Demand-Side Solutions Won’t Work
Demand-side solutions, such as lower interest rates or easier financing, artificially inflate home values, as seen during the COVID-era housing boom and early 2000s. They are not a good long-term solution to affordability because they push values even higher (along with your property taxes) and affordability gets worse when rates/lending normalize and no longer provide artificially low monthly payments.

Supply-Side Solutions Are Not Immediate
Most policy discussions focus on supply-side solutions: building more/faster and denser housing (e.g. Arlington’s Missing Middle/Expanded Housing Option), incentivizing more existing home sales, or disincentivizing concentrated ownership by companies and individuals. Econ 101 tells us that more supply = lower prices = affordable housing (winner winner!).

This is the only path to stable, long-term housing affordability…BUT, at current interest rates, prices must drop 30-35% in the United States to become affordable, at current income levels. A 30-35% drop in home values would devastate the economy, so a supply-side solution won’t (shouldn’t) provide immediate affordability. (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Fannie Mae sets the rules for (most) residential lending and just released new requirements for condo loans. Here’s a link to the full release and I’ll highlight a few changes that have the biggest implications for Arlington/Northern VA condos.

Thanks to the always-on it, Trey Reed of Cross Country Mortgage ([email protected], 703.297.9382), for the notice and helpful explanation on these changes.

Elimination of 50% Investor-Owned (rental) Unit Limits

This rule caused mass confusion for years for condo boards/owners and is now eliminated.

• The actual rule: No second-home or investment loans in buildings with 50%+ units owned by investors (rented), loans for primary residences were always permitted

• What people thought the rule was: No loan of any type in buildings with 50%+ units owned by investors (rented)

Effective Immediately: The 50%+ investor-owned limit is eliminated for ALL loan types.

Why it Matters: This should increase the buyer pool for investor-heavy buildings which is good for values, but may push rental percentages even higher, which most owner-occupants consider a negative.

What to Watch: Many condo buildings with rental caps set them at, or just below, 50% because of this rule (I’m generally opposed to rental caps) so it makes sense that some buildings will drop their rental caps. On the other hand, the elimination of this rule may increase the number of investor purchases and owner-occupants may play defense by adding a rental cap. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 2-3 years.

Increased Reserve Allocation to 15%

What Changed: For loan applications dated after Jan 4 2027, condos must budget at least 15% of their total income from assessments (condo fees) toward Reserve contributions.

Background Context: Previously, the requirement was 10%. Reserves are a building’s savings account for the maintenance and replacement of common elements (e.g. HVAC, roof, carpet, paint, parking garage, etc).

Between the Lines: Underfunded Reserves are the biggest financial risks for a condo association; and thus for the banks that lend to its owners. The minimum contribution requirement is an effort by Fannie Mae to reduce this risk exposure.

Why it Matters: This is a nationwide rule, but Arlington/Northern VA condos tend to be in a better financial position, with stronger reserve balances, than many others across the country and do not need 15%+ annual reserve contribution to properly maintain their Reserves. As a result, this rule will force these buildings, that have been financially responsible for years/decades, to increase condo fees unnecessarily to meet the new requirement. This will result in an unnecessarily overfunded Reserve account and put downward pressure on market values because monthly fees are higher. (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Do you expect the housing market to continue at its current pace through the summer?

Answer: Buyers throughout Northern VA have faced stiff competition so far in 2026, especially for detached homes and townhomes. Some relief is coming to buyers still searching for a home, although it will come at the cost of seeing fewer homes hit the market.

The data below is based on homes sold in Arlington VA that went under contract in 2023-2025, but the seasonal trends apply across most Northern VA markets.

Second Half Market is Slower, Less Competitive

When you buy a home affects the way you experience the housing market. Buyers who are active in the first half of the year experience a constant flow of new listings, homes going under contract quickly, frequent competition, and rising prices. Buyers who are active in the second half of the year see fewer listings, homes take longer to sell, less competition, and more stable prices.

• Slower market: Homes sell about 30% slower in the second half of the year

• More negotiations: Buyers negotiate ~2% more off the original asking price in the second half of the year

• Harder to find what you want: 25-30% fewer homes come to market during the second half of the year

• Prices stabilize: Prices tend to appreciate during the first half of the year and stabilize in the second half of the year

• Caution on misreading the data: The 3% and 7% drop in average sold price in the second half of 2024 and 2025 does not necessarily mean home values were 3% and 7% lower during that time, the drop is more correlated to less expensive homes being listed for sale in the second half of the year than the first half

(more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

This year’s July 4th fireworks show on the National Mall will set the world record for the largest fireworks display ever, with 860,000 fireworks planned (we normally see 17,000-20,000) over a 40-minute display of explosions and light.

If you can’t bear the thought of dealing with traffic, crowds, and tourists to watch the fireworks, you can buy a private or semi-private view from about a dozen different condo buildings in Arlington.

This week, I’m highlighting Arlington condo buildings that offer the best views of DC fireworks, either from the privacy of your own unit/balcony or a shared rooftop.

Buildings With Exceptional Views from a Shared Rooftop

Pierce (link to inventory since 2025)

Built in 2021, Pierce boasts the highest price per square foot of any building in Arlington, earning its premium with a spectacular rooftop terrace and pool, a penthouse-level owner’s club, two-story gym, and private elevator access to select residences. The units are some of the largest available condos in Northern VA, spanning 1,300-2,400 square feet, ranging in price from about $1M-$4M.

2000 Clarendon (link to inventory since 2025)

Built in 2021, 2000 Clarendon is one of Arlington’s newest condo buildings and offers residents a large rooftop terrace, a rooftop social room, and gym. Most of the units here are one or two bedrooms, with some offering an additional den, and range in price from about $550,000 to $2M. (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: What areas of Northern VA have the most and least expensive new construction homes?

Answer: The biggest and most expensive new builds in Northern VA are in Great Falls and Mclean. Prince William County offers the most affordability, along with the most house and land for your money.

The following data is based on MLS sales of new construction detached homes in Northern Virginia from 2025-June 1 2026.

Great Falls, Mclean, and Everybody Else

• The small town of Middleburg is the only city with an average new home price over $3,000,000.

• Dumfries and Bristow are the only Northern VA cities where the average new home costs less than $1,000,000

• The average price for a new home in Vienna is $22,000 higher than Arlington

How Big Are New Homes?

• Most new homes throughout Northern VA come in around 5,000-6,000 finished square feet

• Mclean (8,450) and Great Falls (8,700) average nearly 2,000SF more than homes in Vienna, the city with the third largest average new home

• Despite having significantly more room to build, homes in Loudoun County and Prince William County are constructed with a “modest” 4,800 finished SF

• On average, 5,700 finished SF in Northern VA is filled with 5.4 bedrooms and 5.1 full bathrooms

If Yard and Privacy Matter the Most

• The average new home in Prince William County sits on nearly 2.7 acres and provides new home buyers with the lowest cost per acre for a new home

• Privacy in your new home is hard to come by in Arlington, Ashburn, Brambleton, Dumfries, and Bristow with average lot sizes under 0.2 acres

• Great Falls (1.69) and Oakton (2.07) are the only jurisdictions within Fairfax County with an average lot size over one acre

• In Northern VA, the average new home is built on 0.84 acres

(more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How does home value appreciation vary in Arlington by property type?

Answer: The Arlington VA housing market has appreciated by an average price of 49% and a median price of 39% over a ten-year period, but that appreciation is not evenly distributed across all property types.

Detached Homes Appreciate Over 60%

Those who spend the most on a home benefit from the highest appreciation rates, with detached home appreciation of 60%+ over the course of a decade, and new detached homes appreciating the most of any property type, at 65%.

Condos Appreciate 1-2% Annually

The worst performing category over ten years in Arlington is the one-bedroom condo, with appreciation close to 1% annually and just 15% over ten years. Two-bedroom condos perform moderately better, with an average annual appreciation closer to 2% at 28% over ten years.

Townhouses are the Goldilocks Property Type

More expensive than condos and less expensive than detached homes, townhouse/semi-detached properties fall right in the middle of cost and ten-year rate of appreciation, coming in at 40% over ten years. (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Thank you to all who have served and to the families who have sacrificed or lost loved ones for our freedom. I hope you and yours have a special Memorial Day weekend with friends and family to celebrate our country and those we’ve lost defending it.

The Eli Residential Group donates annually to Arlington-based TAPS (Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors) in honor of Memorial Day. Since 1994, TAPS has provided comfort and hope 24/7 to those grieving a death in the military or veteran community, through a national peer support network and connection to grief resources, all at no cost to surviving families and loved ones.

If you are interested in donating to a great charity this Memorial Day, TAPS is a four-star rated charity on Charity Navigator with 87.5% of funds raised going towards program expenses.

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How common is it for a home sale to fall through once it’s under contract?

Answer: According to a recent study, 70% of sellers fear that buyers will back out of the deal before it closes. How often do real estate transactions actually fall apart?

Arlington, Northern VA Buyers Are Committed

Since 2019, less than 10% of real estate contracts fell through in Arlington, compared to 26.3% in Prince George’s County.

Just 11.4% of Northern VA real estate contracts didn’t make it to closing, as opposed to 13.8% in Montgomery County MD and 15.2% in Washington DC.

Spring Buyers Are More Committed

Homes that go under contract during the spring market are more likely to close than those that sell later in the year.

In Northern VA, just 9.6% of homes that go under contract in April fall through, but December contracts fall through 12.8% of the time; 12% more than average.

This pattern of fall-through rates follows a similar pattern of best and worst times to go to market for sellers. February through May often produce the best results for sellers in speed and price metrics, it also gives sellers the best chance at getting to the closing table.

Seasonal fall-through rates across the entire DMV market follow a similar trend as Northern VA, but the average fall-through rate increases 4-5% when you include DC and Maryland suburbs. (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Does the cost of renting a home in Arlington increase at a similar rate as the cost of buying a home in Arlington?

Answer: The cost of renting and buying a detached home increases at a similar rate, but the cost of renting a condo has outpaced the cost of buying a condo.

Condo Rents Rising Faster than Condo Prices

Since 2020, the cost of renting a detached home in Arlington increased at a similar rate as the cost of buying a detached home; 26% and 28%, respectively.

However, the cost of renting a condo increased significantly faster than the cost of buying a condo; 21% and 6%, respectively.

Sale Price to Rental Rate Multiple Shifts with Interest Rates

The table below shows the average price and $/SF of buying a detached home or condo relative to the average annual rent for a detached home or condo, in Arlington. Higher multiples show that buying is becoming more expensive relative to renting.

Takeaway: Condo buyers are more rate sensitive than detached home buyers and are more likely to rent (higher rental demand = strong condo rent appreciation) than buy (weakened purchase demand = low condo value appreciation) when interest rates increase. Notice how quickly the sale price to rental rate multiple drops from 2020/2021 to 2022/2023 (rates skyrocketed spring/summer 2022). (more…)