Author: Eli Tucker

Eli preaches a client-first approach in everything Eli Residential Group does, and is constantly seeking new technologies, processes, and analyses to add value to our clients. Our clients receive a highly personalized level of service through every step of the transaction, no matter your budget or timeline. After graduating from the University of Maryland Robert H. Smith School of Business, Eli spent six years in Management Consulting in the DC area and utilizes that background to the benefit of our clients; offering a unique blend of analytics, business savvy, and attention to detail.

Ask Eli: The summer market felt slow. Was it?

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: It seems like listings lingered on the market longer than usual this summer. Is that reflected in the market data?

Answer: The summer real estate market is usually slower than spring, but since late June, this summer has felt unusually slow compared with past summer markets. I analyzed Arlington homes listed for sale in July and August, going back to 2016, and found that we did indeed experience a historically slow summer market.

5-Bullet Cliff Notes

  • Summer 2026 was slowest summer market since 2016
  • Showing activity is down significantly
  • Listing supply (homes for sale) is up significantly
  • It is still a seller’s market, just more balanced
  • Too early to accurately observe impact on prices

Slowest Summer Since 2016

Fewer homes listed in July and August went under contract within the first ten days on market (my preferred measure of market pace) than any summer since 2016.

The condo market experienced the brunt of that slowness, with the percentage of condos under contract within ten days falling 17.9 points below the trailing ten-year average. Arlington’s detached/townhouse/duplex market, one of the most robust sub-markets in the country, was not spared either; falling 6.7 points below the trailing ten-year average.

Lingering Inventory

The clearest sign of a summer slowdown is the amount of inventory that remained unresolved at the end of August. 53% of the listings entered in July and August were still active, compared with about 31% in 2025 and 27% from 2023-2025.

Even among July listings, which had at least a full month to attract a buyer, 36% remained active: more than twice the recent three-year rate. As of Aug 30, ~25% of all active summer listings had accumulated at least 30 days on market, and 9% accumulated at least 60 days.

Showings Down, Active Inventory Up

Showing data shows that we have fewer buyers in the market, not simply more indecisive/deliberate buyers. In the week ending August 23, showings in Arlington were down 7.9% from the prior week and 26.4% from the same week last year.

There are also a lot more homes for buyers to choose from, with active listings (homes listed for sale) up 2% from the week prior and 21.5% from the same week last year. Buyers will take longer to make decisions when they have more choices.

The Arlington trends are consistent with other Northern VA/DC Metro markets as well. In the DC Metro, weekly showings dropped to five-year lows in late June and remained there during most weeks of the summer. At the same time, the week ending August 23 delivered the most new listings to the market of any year since 2021, for the same week.

Total active listings in the DC Metro have been above the same week in the prior year since the second week of January 2025.

(more…)

Ask Eli: The condo insurance market is finally turning a corner

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How can my condo Association meaningfully reduce its expenses?

Answer: The Master Insurance policy is often the largest, or one of the largest, annual expenses for a Condominium Association and managing it is critical to keeping stable condo fees. Recently, skyrocketing insurance premiums have put tremendous pressure on Association budgets, but good news has finally arrived for condo owners and Boards.

Today’s column is written by Andrew Schlaffer, Founder and President of ACO Insurance and someone I recommend to any condo Board that wants to inquire about their existing or a new master insurance policy (condo or HOA). You can reach Andrew at [email protected] or (703)595-9760.

Take it away Andrew…

After three to four years of double-digit renewal increases, the condominium insurance market is genuinely improving. Commercial property insurance premiums nationally declined in early 2026, for the first time since 2017, according to a survey by The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers.

For well-maintained, low-claim condo buildings, we’re seeing typical renewal increases of just 2% to 5% — a dramatic change from the 10%+ increases that were common over the past several years. Water damage remains the leading source of claims for the DMV’s aging condo buildings, followed by fire and wind/hail, but the overall cost trend is heading in the right direction for many communities.

Reinsurance is Driving the Cost Control
Much of this relief traces back to reinsurance — the backup coverage insurance companies themselves buy to protect against catastrophic losses. Reinsurance capital is at record levels, and reinsurance rates fell by double digits over the past year as capacity grew, according to industry reinsurance renewal reports. As reinsurers compete harder for business, carriers are passing some of those savings down to condo associations in the form of smaller increases — and in some cases, outright rate decreases.

Cost Control is not Applied Equally
That said, underwriting scrutiny remains high, and not every building benefits equally. Carriers continue to favor newer, fire-resistive buildings with full NFPA 13 sprinkler systems and newer roofs. Older, garden-style condos with a single means of egress and no sprinklers remain a difficult class to place, since the carrier market for these buildings is thinner, competition is lower, and claims frequency tends to run higher.

If your building falls into this category, it’s generally best to stay with your current carrier unless you receive a double-digit increase — shopping the account in this segment can do more harm than good.

The umbrella/excess liability market hasn’t seen the same relief. Nuclear verdicts (jury awards over $10 million) continue rising sharply, keeping capacity tight and rates firm, according to 2026 liability market data. Expect umbrella/excess liability increases in the 10% to 30% range depending on your community’s loss history and risk profile.

Pillars of Insurance Reviews
Condo insurance reviews require a holistic approach, so it’s important to break the cost into a few distinct categories: insurance premium, deductible expense, and out-of-pocket costs. To effectively accomplish long-term savings, all three of these categories need to be considered and addressed with a qualified insurance professional.

(more…)

Ask Eli: Community support after condo fire, a personal connection

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

On Friday, I learned that the house fire at the Hyde Park condominium in Ballston was the home of my friend, Greg, his wife Caroline, and their beloved dog, Maisie. I’m sure you saw it in Wednesday’s ARLnow news cycle.

Greg and Caroline were not home when the fire occurred, but they tragically lost their dog Maisie, a loss that overshadows the loss of their personal belongings.

A Bit About Maisie

Maisie lived in the Ballston neighborhood since she was born almost six years ago. She loved meeting old friends and new, between her walks at home and her frequent training walks in Old Town, she had more than either of her parents did. She loved every dog and cat and person she ever met, but she never got over her mistrust of squirrels.  She will be missed as much as she was loved.

Support Lost Dog Rescue in Honor of Maisie

Please consider donating to Arlington’s Lost Dog & Cat Rescue Foundation in Maisie’s memory.

Lost Dog & Cat Rescue Foundation is celebrating its 25th anniversary this year and is an exemplary nonprofit that helps homeless pets find their way to loving homes through rescue and adoption.

There is nothing Greg and Caroline would appreciate more than knowing that Maisie’s memory is helping support the well-being of other dogs and cats.

Leave a Kind Word for Greg and Caroline

If you would like to share well wishes with Greg and Caroline, please leave a comment, and I’ll make sure it gets back to them.

Ask Eli: Condo prices rebound, buyers maintain leverage in first half

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How has the Arlington condo market performed in the first half of 2026?

Answer: After a down year for condo prices in 2025, values rebounded close to 2024 levels despite properties staying on market longer and fewer condos selling for at or above their original asking price.

Market Values Higher, Despite Difficulty Selling

  • The average and median $/SF increased 3.3% and 5%, respectively
  • The average and median price increased 6.6% and 8.3%, respectively
  • Over the past five years, the average and median price per square foot increased by just 5%
  • Sellers felt more pressure during the sale, with the average condo taking an extra ten days to sell (42 days on market) and buyers negotiating an average of 2.1% off the original asking price, compared to 1.8% in 2025
  • Just 40% of condos sold for at or above the asking price, compared to 39% last year and ~ 50% from 2022-2024.

One-Bedroom Values Flat/Stable, Two-Bedroom Values Higher but Volatile

  • In 2026, the average $/SF of two-bedroom condos increased by 3.7%, compared to just 0.2% for one-bedroom condos
  • In 2025, the average $/SF of two-bedroom condos decreased by 6.5%, compared to a decrease of 1.7% for one-bedroom condos
  • The average $/SF of one-bedroom condos are still 1.6% below 2024 values and two-bedroom condos are 3.1% below 2024 values

Condo Fees Play a Significant Role in Condo Sales

The median monthly condo fee increased 3.6% to $638. On a fee-per-square-foot basis, the median rose 0.5% to about $0.70.

Among 2026 sales with fees below $0.50/SF, the median market time was 11 days, 51.4% sold at or above original ask, and the average sale was 98.6% of original ask. At $1.00+/SF, the median time on market more than doubled, only 35.6% sold at or above ask, and the average sale was 95.8% of original ask. Price reductions were also more common: 32.2% versus 22.9%.

Looking Forward

Given that price growth was attributable to two-bedroom condos, not the entire condo market, and it occurred with key demand metrics well below long-term averages, I wouldn’t be surprised to see values recede in the second half of 2026.

Additionally, condo inventory in Q2 of 2026 was 37% higher than in Q2 2025, while absorption rates were down. More supply combined with less demand is another indicator of downward pressure on condo values in the second half of 2026.

How the Data is Organized

For my mid-year reviews, I like to compare the first half of the year to the first half of prior years, rather than comparing the first half of the current year to the full year in prior years. We tend to see a stronger market (higher demand, more competition) in the first half of the year than the second half, so this approach gives us a better apples-to-apples comparison.

(more…)

Competition higher, price growth lower in first half housing market

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How has the Arlington single-family home market performed in the first half of 2026?

Answer: Arlington’s single-family detached (SFD) market got busier and more competitive in the first half of 2026, yet prices increased at their slowest pace since 2023.

More Competition, Modest Appreciation (Resale Market)

Note: this data is for resales of single-family detached (SFD) homes; I have a separate analysis of the new construction market further down.

  • The average and median price increased 3.5% and 1.9%, respectively
  • Over the past five years, the average and median price increased 13.9% and 11.1%, respectively
  • The average and median price of a home increased to $1.44M and $1.299M, respectively
  • Demand and competition rose to the highest levels since 2022, with 66% of homes selling within the first ten days on market and 68% of homes selling at or above the original asking price
  • The average buyer paid 1.3% more than the original asking price, compared to 2025 when the average buyer paid 0.3% less than the original asking price
  • Buyers of homes that went under contract within the first week on market paid an average of 4.7% over the asking price

Dig Deeper: Performance Varied by Size, Price Point

The appreciation gap between the average price (3.5%) and median price (1.9%) matters. The average is more sensitive to expensive sales. In 2026, 15.7% of closed resales sold for $2M or more, up from 12.7% in 2025. At the other end of the market, only 21.7% sold below $1M, down from 24.4%. That shift toward higher-priced homes helped lift the average faster than the median.

Average and median prices are useful, but neither tells us whether gains were shared evenly across the market. To test that, I divided the closed resale market into four sold-price quartiles for each year. Each quartile represents one-fourth of that year’s sales, from the least expensive 25% to the most expensive 25%. (more…)

Ask Eli: The housing affordability conversation needs to change

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How much of an impact do you think the ROAD to Housing Act will have on housing affordability in Arlington?

Answer: The Road to Housing Act became law ten days ago, with the stated goal of improving housing affordability in the United States.

I don’t see many policies in the Act that will improve affordability in the Arlington/Northern VA/DC Metro markets, outside of incentives for more affordable multi-family housing, but there are policies that should improve affordability in other markets that are more saturated with institutional investors that own swaths of single-family homes (e.g. Atlanta and Phoenix) and for manufactured/mobile homes.

The Local Conversation Needs to Change

If we are going to improve affordability in our market, most of the change has to be done locally/regionally, not nationally, but it requires a paradigm shift in how we discuss and solve for housing affordability.

Affordability Disconnect: Near Term Expectations Not Realistic
A disconnect between housing affordability expectations and reality prevents the right community and political conversations from happening. We expect/demand housing affordability immediately, ignoring the difficulty, and consequences, of achieving it that quickly.

Stable and healthy housing affordability is a long-term process requiring gradual change over a 10-15+ year period.

Demand-Side Solutions Won’t Work
Demand-side solutions, such as lower interest rates or easier financing, artificially inflate home values, as seen during the COVID-era housing boom and early 2000s. They are not a good long-term solution to affordability because they push values even higher (along with your property taxes) and affordability gets worse when rates/lending normalize and no longer provide artificially low monthly payments.

Supply-Side Solutions Are Not Immediate
Most policy discussions focus on supply-side solutions: building more/faster and denser housing (e.g. Arlington’s Missing Middle/Expanded Housing Option), incentivizing more existing home sales, or disincentivizing concentrated ownership by companies and individuals. Econ 101 tells us that more supply = lower prices = affordable housing (winner winner!).

This is the only path to stable, long-term housing affordability…BUT, at current interest rates, prices must drop 30-35% in the United States to become affordable, at current income levels. A 30-35% drop in home values would devastate the economy, so a supply-side solution won’t (shouldn’t) provide immediate affordability. (more…)

Major changes to condo lending requirements and the implications

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Fannie Mae sets the rules for (most) residential lending and just released new requirements for condo loans. Here’s a link to the full release and I’ll highlight a few changes that have the biggest implications for Arlington/Northern VA condos.

Thanks to the always-on it, Trey Reed of Cross Country Mortgage ([email protected], 703.297.9382), for the notice and helpful explanation on these changes.

Elimination of 50% Investor-Owned (rental) Unit Limits

This rule caused mass confusion for years for condo boards/owners and is now eliminated.

  • The actual rule: No second-home or investment loans in buildings with 50%+ units owned by investors (rented), loans for primary residences were always permitted
  • What people thought the rule was: No loan of any type in buildings with 50%+ units owned by investors (rented)

Effective Immediately: The 50%+ investor-owned limit is eliminated for ALL loan types.

Why it Matters: This should increase the buyer pool for investor-heavy buildings which is good for values, but may push rental percentages even higher, which most owner-occupants consider a negative.

What to Watch: Many condo buildings with rental caps set them at, or just below, 50% because of this rule (I’m generally opposed to rental caps) so it makes sense that some buildings will drop their rental caps. On the other hand, the elimination of this rule may increase the number of investor purchases and owner-occupants may play defense by adding a rental cap. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 2-3 years.

Increased Reserve Allocation to 15%

What Changed: For loan applications dated after Jan 4 2027, condos must budget at least 15% of their total income from assessments (condo fees) toward Reserve contributions.

Background Context: Previously, the requirement was 10%. Reserves are a building’s savings account for the maintenance and replacement of common elements (e.g. HVAC, roof, carpet, paint, parking garage, etc).

Between the Lines: Underfunded Reserves are the biggest financial risks for a condo association; and thus for the banks that lend to its owners. The minimum contribution requirement is an effort by Fannie Mae to reduce this risk exposure.

Why it Matters: This is a nationwide rule, but Arlington/Northern VA condos tend to be in a better financial position, with stronger reserve balances, than many others across the country and do not need 15%+ annual reserve contribution to properly maintain their Reserves. As a result, this rule will force these buildings, that have been financially responsible for years/decades, to increase condo fees unnecessarily to meet the new requirement. This will result in an unnecessarily overfunded Reserve account and put downward pressure on market values because monthly fees are higher. (more…)

Hot take: condo fees are financially savvy

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Why would anybody waste thousands of dollars each year on condo fees?

Answer: Most people associate paying condo fees with throwing money down the drain, but most people do not look at condo fees the right way.

In this June 20 article, the Wall Street Journal reported a study by Angi (formerly Angie’s List) that home maintenance and emergency repairs have increased by 85% and 175%, respectively, from 2019 to 2025.

By comparison, condo fees in Arlington increased by an average of just 32% from 2019 to 2025, making them a steep bargain for condo owners compared to other homeowners.

What Do Condo Fees Pay For?

For those who haven’t spent time studying condo budgets, some of the main expenses in a condo budget include:

  • Maintenance, Emergency Repairs, and Utilities: general upkeep and operations of the building
  • Reserves: a building’s savings account for major repairs or replacement of things like the roof, elevators, carpet, etc
  • Property Management/Staff: contracts for a property manager, front desk, janitorial services, and engineer
  • Master Insurance: this policy usually protects everything except your personal items and improvements within each unit

(more…)

The housing market will slow down for the next six months

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Do you expect the housing market to continue at its current pace through the summer?

Answer: Buyers throughout Northern VA have faced stiff competition so far in 2026, especially for detached homes and townhomes. Some relief is coming to buyers still searching for a home, although it will come at the cost of seeing fewer homes hit the market.

The data below is based on homes sold in Arlington VA that went under contract in 2023-2025, but the seasonal trends apply across most Northern VA markets.

Second Half Market is Slower, Less Competitive

When you buy a home affects the way you experience the housing market. Buyers who are active in the first half of the year experience a constant flow of new listings, homes going under contract quickly, frequent competition, and rising prices. Buyers who are active in the second half of the year see fewer listings, homes take longer to sell, less competition, and more stable prices.

  • Slower market: Homes sell about 30% slower in the second half of the year
  • More negotiations: Buyers negotiate ~2% more off the original asking price in the second half of the year
  • Harder to find what you want: 25-30% fewer homes come to market during the second half of the year
  • Prices stabilize: Prices tend to appreciate during the first half of the year and stabilize in the second half of the year
  • Caution on misreading the data: The 3% and 7% drop in average sold price in the second half of 2024 and 2025 does not necessarily mean home values were 3% and 7% lower during that time, the drop is more correlated to less expensive homes being listed for sale in the second half of the year than the first half

(more…)

Best Arlington condo buildings to watch DC Fireworks

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

This year’s July 4th fireworks show on the National Mall will set the world record for the largest fireworks display ever, with 860,000 fireworks planned (we normally see 17,000-20,000) over a 40-minute display of explosions and light.

If you can’t bear the thought of dealing with traffic, crowds, and tourists to watch the fireworks, you can buy a private or semi-private view from about a dozen different condo buildings in Arlington.

This week, I’m highlighting Arlington condo buildings that offer the best views of DC fireworks, either from the privacy of your own unit/balcony or a shared rooftop.

Buildings With Exceptional Views from a Shared Rooftop

Pierce (link to inventory since 2025)

Built in 2021, Pierce boasts the highest price per square foot of any building in Arlington, earning its premium with a spectacular rooftop terrace and pool, a penthouse-level owner’s club, two-story gym, and private elevator access to select residences. The units are some of the largest available condos in Northern VA, spanning 1,300-2,400 square feet, ranging in price from about $1M-$4M.

Pierce rooftop includes DC views, pool, grills, and fireplace
Pierce rooftop includes DC views, pool, grills, and fireplace

2000 Clarendon (link to inventory since 2025)

Built in 2021, 2000 Clarendon is one of Arlington’s newest condo buildings and offers residents a large rooftop terrace, a rooftop social room, and gym. Most of the units here are one or two bedrooms, with some offering an additional den, and range in price from about $550,000 to $2M. (more…)

The cost of new homes in Northern VA and what you get

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: What areas of Northern VA have the most and least expensive new construction homes?

Answer: The biggest and most expensive new builds in Northern VA are in Great Falls and Mclean. Prince William County offers the most affordability, along with the most house and land for your money.

The following data is based on MLS sales of new construction detached homes in Northern Virginia from 2025-June 1 2026.

Great Falls, Mclean, and Everybody Else

  • The small town of Middleburg is the only city with an average new home price over $3,000,000.
  • Dumfries and Bristow are the only Northern VA cities where the average new home costs less than $1,000,000
  • The average price for a new home in Vienna is $22,000 higher than Arlington

How Big Are New Homes?

  • Most new homes throughout Northern VA come in around 5,000-6,000 finished square feet
  • Mclean (8,450) and Great Falls (8,700) average nearly 2,000SF more than homes in Vienna, the city with the third largest average new home
  • Despite having significantly more room to build, homes in Loudoun County and Prince William County are constructed with a “modest” 4,800 finished SF
  • On average, 5,700 finished SF in Northern VA is filled with 5.4 bedrooms and 5.1 full bathrooms

If Yard and Privacy Matter the Most

  • The average new home in Prince William County sits on nearly 2.7 acres and provides new home buyers with the lowest cost per acre for a new home
  • Privacy in your new home is hard to come by in Arlington, Ashburn, Brambleton, Dumfries, and Bristow with average lot sizes under 0.2 acres
  • Great Falls (1.69) and Oakton (2.07) are the only jurisdictions within Fairfax County with an average lot size over one acre
  • In Northern VA, the average new home is built on 0.84 acres

(more…)

Arlington home appreciation by property type: a 10-year analysis

By Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How does home value appreciation vary in Arlington by property type?

Answer: The Arlington VA housing market has appreciated by an average price of 49% and a median price of 39% over a ten-year period, but that appreciation is not evenly distributed across all property types.

Detached Homes Appreciate Over 60%

Those who spend the most on a home benefit from the highest appreciation rates, with detached home appreciation of 60%+ over the course of a decade, and new detached homes appreciating the most of any property type, at 65%.

Condos Appreciate 1-2% Annually

The worst performing category over ten years in Arlington is the one-bedroom condo, with appreciation close to 1% annually and just 15% over ten years. Two-bedroom condos perform moderately better, with an average annual appreciation closer to 2% at 28% over ten years.

Townhouses are the Goldilocks Property Type

More expensive than condos and less expensive than detached homes, townhouse/semi-detached properties fall right in the middle of cost and ten-year rate of appreciation, coming in at 40% over ten years. (more…)

View More Stories