Author: Eli Tucker

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How common is it for a home sale to fall through once it’s under contract?

Answer: According to a recent study, 70% of sellers fear that buyers will back out of the deal before it closes. How often do real estate transactions actually fall apart?

Arlington, Northern VA Buyers Are Committed

Since 2019, less than 10% of real estate contracts fell through in Arlington, compared to 26.3% in Prince George’s County.

Just 11.4% of Northern VA real estate contracts didn’t make it to closing, as opposed to 13.8% in Montgomery County MD and 15.2% in Washington DC.

Spring Buyers Are More Committed

Homes that go under contract during the spring market are more likely to close than those that sell later in the year.

In Northern VA, just 9.6% of homes that go under contract in April fall through, but December contracts fall through 12.8% of the time; 12% more than average.

This pattern of fall-through rates follows a similar pattern of best and worst times to go to market for sellers. February through May often produce the best results for sellers in speed and price metrics, it also gives sellers the best chance at getting to the closing table.

Seasonal fall-through rates across the entire DMV market follow a similar trend as Northern VA, but the average fall-through rate increases 4-5% when you include DC and Maryland suburbs. (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Does the cost of renting a home in Arlington increase at a similar rate as the cost of buying a home in Arlington?

Answer: The cost of renting and buying a detached home increases at a similar rate, but the cost of renting a condo has outpaced the cost of buying a condo.

Condo Rents Rising Faster than Condo Prices

Since 2020, the cost of renting a detached home in Arlington increased at a similar rate as the cost of buying a detached home; 26% and 28%, respectively.

However, the cost of renting a condo increased significantly faster than the cost of buying a condo; 21% and 6%, respectively.

Sale Price to Rental Rate Multiple Shifts with Interest Rates

The table below shows the average price and $/SF of buying a detached home or condo relative to the average annual rent for a detached home or condo, in Arlington. Higher multiples show that buying is becoming more expensive relative to renting.

Takeaway: Condo buyers are more rate sensitive than detached home buyers and are more likely to rent (higher rental demand = strong condo rent appreciation) than buy (weakened purchase demand = low condo value appreciation) when interest rates increase. Notice how quickly the sale price to rental rate multiple drops from 2020/2021 to 2022/2023 (rates skyrocketed spring/summer 2022). (more…)

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How has the local real estate market performed so far this year?

Answer: After a year where market conditions softened in favor of buyers, the Northern VA real estate market became more favorable for sellers in the first quarter of 2026, while the Washington DC condo market continued to reel.

What is in this article:

• Northern VA, Arlington, and Washington DC Absorption Trends (demand)

• Northern VA, Arlington, and Washington DC Inventory Trends (supply)

• Washington DC List Price Trends (market values)

Northern VA & Arlington Inventory is Being Absorbed Faster

After four straight quarters of double-digit decreases in year-over-year absorption, the Northern VA and Arlington markets saw a ~8% increase in absorption rate.

What this means: Demand increased in Q1

Northern VA & Arlington New Listing Volume is Declining

After a promising trend of six straight quarters of year-over-year increases in the number of homes listed for sale in Northern VA, new listing activity fell by ~1% each of the previous two quarters.

What this means: Sellers have less competition, buyers have fewer choices

Washington DC Condo Absorption is Plummeting

The absorption rate for DC condos has declined year-over-year for 16 quarters straight and 23 out of the past 26 quarters.

What this means: It is difficult to find buyers for DC condos

Washington DC Condo Inventory Declined Slightly

Total inventory declined by 3.4% year-over-year, the first quarterly drop since Q4 2023. Still, there were great than 2x more condos for sale in DC in Q1 2026 than Q1 2020

What this means: Motivated sellers must compete aggressively with each other for buyers

Washington DC Condos Keep Getting Cheaper

The average price of a DC condo listed for sale is 9.4% less than it was in Q1 2025 and ~9% less than it was ten years ago.

What this means: Even lowering the price won’t guarantee a buyer

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

We have access to the most pre and off-market listings across the DMV of any brokerage and are happy to share what’s available with anybody who asks.

Below are some of our team’s pre/off-market listings, details and additional listings available by request:

• Westover – 4BR/2BA/2,000sqft – Detached Single Family (2000) – 23rd St N Arlington VA 22205
• Green Valley – 5BR/4.5BA/3,000sqft – Detached Single Family (2020) – 24th St S Arlington VA 22206
• Ballston – 4BR/3.5BA/2,400sqft – Townhouse (2008) – N George Mason Dr Arlington VA 22203
• Ballston – 4BR/3.5BA+office/4,000 sqft – Four Townhouses (2026/2027) – 11th St N Arlington VA 22201
• Rosslyn – 2BR/2BA/1,800sqft – Condo (2021) – 1781 N Pierce St Arlington VA 22209
• Rosslyn – 3BR/2.5BA/2,400sqft – Condo (1986) – 1530 Key Blvd Arlington VA 22209
• Williamsburg – 6BR/5.5BA/5,500 sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – 27th St N Arlington VA 22207
• Yorktown – 6BR/6.5BA/6,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – N Greencastle St Arlington VA 22207

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Can you explain the latest news about partnerships between brokerages and websites like Redfin and Zillow for pre-market inventory?

Answer:

The fight over listings has shifted from theory to reality. Major brokerages, portals, and platforms are actively reshaping where listings appear, what data is shared, and who controls it. For buyers and sellers, the biggest risk isn’t who wins, it’s what gets lost if the market becomes fragmented.

Last year, I wrote about the battle raging in the real estate industry and the growing tension around private listings and pre-market marketing rules.

That battle hasn’t slowed down. It escalated. (more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How many different real estate agents are doing business in Arlington?

Answer: There were 2,317 real estate transactions in Arlington last year, totaling $2.136B in sales volume, increases of 6% and 8.4%, respectively, over 2024.

There were 2,116 licensed real estate agents involved in at least one sale in Arlington in 2025, compared to 2,058 in 2024. Each transaction usually includes two real estate agents – one representing the buyer and another representing the seller. (more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: I am weighing the financial pros and cons of where to live in the DMV. How does the cost of homeowners insurance vary between Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland?

Answer: Homeowners insurance has gotten more expensive and guidelines stricter as claims have risen. For buyers choosing between buying a home in Virginia, Washington DC, or Maryland the difference in homeowners insurance costs is worth considering.

I interviewed my go-to insurance provider, Seth Kutner, with ACO Insurance about the differences he sees providing homeowners insurance across the DMV. If you want to reach Seth to discuss your policies or ask questions, you can reach him at [email protected]. (more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Where do you see single family home architecture evolving over the coming 5+ years?

Answers: Predicting the next evolution of single-family home architecture requires a level of architectural expertise I do not have, so I asked the team at Lee Design Studio (Architecture, Design, Planning services based in Falls Church) for their input. I highly recommend Matt and his talented team of architects and designers, they can be reached at [email protected]

Take it away Lee Design Studio… (more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Arlington Assessments Up 3.2%, Tax Rate Up Too

In January, Arlington announced that residential property tax assessments increased by an average of 3.2%, higher than the ~1% increase in market values that I calculated for 2025. Last year’s 3.7% increase came in about half as high as the increase in market values I calculated for 2024, so Arlington had some catching up to do.

Arlington will increase the tax rate by 1.5 cents per $100 to $1.048 per $100, which comes out to a tax bill of 1.048% of your assessed value. (more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How did Arlington’s condo market perform in 2025?

The Headline: The Arlington condo market lost value in 2025 (down 4.9%), after surging in 2024 (up 10.7%). The overall Arlington market was up by just over 1%, on an average price basis.

Bucking, and Maintaining, the Trend

Arlington’s condo market is historically stable and predictable, but the past two years brought about an unusual period of volatility. Despite recent ups and downs, the long-term trend of 1-2% annualized growth has been maintained – over the past five years, the average sold price is up 7.3% and the average $/SF is up 4.8%. (more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

 Questions: What design trends are you seeing in the residential market?

Answer: Every year our marketing department does a deep dive into home design trends that multiple local and national design experts say to look for each year. Some of these trends last just a year or two, others take hold for a decade. Often, these trends reintroduce styles from decades ago, with small tweaks.

You can click this link to browse the full 2026 Design Trends e-booklet from RLAH Real Estate. I’ve pulled out a few highlights and personal favorites below…

Color of the Year

• Pantone: Cloud Dancer (11-4201). An “airy, ethereal white that embodies tranquility and gentle balance in a fast-moving world”.
• Benjamin Moore: Silhouette (AF-655). A “rich and expressive hue” that blends burnished umber with subtle charcoal undertones.
• Behr: Hidden Gem (N430-6A). A “moody jade infused with smoky depth” that feels both grounding and energized.
• Sherwin Williams: Universal Khaki (SW 6150). A modern classic enriched with a soft yellow undertone, bringing warmth and ease to any space

(more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: What were the overall trends of the DC Metro housing market last year and what is expected in 2026?

Answer: In the coming weeks, I’ll publish my deep dive into the 2025 Arlington housing market, but this week we’ll take a 20,000 foot view of the Great DC Metro market and some national trends/projections.

In this article, local data:

• Low Home Sale Volume, Again
• Modest Appreciation, Despite Challenges
• Monthly Listings Far Below Pre-Pandemic
• Early 2026 Market Indicators

In this article, national data:

• State-by-State Changes in Housing Inventory (2019 to 2025)
• Experts Predict Home Price Appreciation
• Experts Predict Mortgage Interest Rates

(more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Buyers now have more more choices, lower interest rates, and more bargaining power. Whether you are a new or experienced homeowner, come learn about the market and how our team has positioned hundreds of buyers for success.

Tomorrow, Wednesday January 21, I’m hosting another Ask Eli Home Buyer Workshop with my business partner Jean Ropp and local Loan Officer, Matt Ropp, with Atlantic Coast Mortgage. Food and drinks will be provided!

The workshop is a free:

• How to use data and strategy to maximize your home purchase
• How to use market trends to your advantage
• The latest on interest rates and mortgage programs/product
• Common mistakes to avoid and some tips for success

(more…)