This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: How much of an impact do you think the ROAD to Housing Act will have on housing affordability in Arlington?
Answer: The Road to Housing Act became law ten days ago, with the stated goal of improving housing affordability in the United States.
I don’t see many policies in the Act that will improve affordability in the Arlington/Northern VA/DC Metro markets, outside of incentives for more affordable multi-family housing, but there are policies that should improve affordability in other markets that are more saturated with institutional investors that own swaths of single-family homes (e.g. Atlanta and Phoenix) and for manufactured/mobile homes.
The Local Conversation Needs to Change
If we are going to improve affordability in our market, most of the change has to be done locally/regionally, not nationally, but it requires a paradigm shift in how we discuss and solve for housing affordability.
Affordability Disconnect: Near Term Expectations Not Realistic
A disconnect between housing affordability expectations and reality prevents the right community and political conversations from happening. We expect/demand housing affordability immediately, ignoring the difficulty, and consequences, of achieving it that quickly.
Stable and healthy housing affordability is a long-term process requiring gradual change over a 10-15+ year period.
Demand-Side Solutions Won’t Work
Demand-side solutions, such as lower interest rates or easier financing, artificially inflate home values, as seen during the COVID-era housing boom and early 2000s. They are not a good long-term solution to affordability because they push values even higher (along with your property taxes) and affordability gets worse when rates/lending normalize and no longer provide artificially low monthly payments.
Supply-Side Solutions Are Not Immediate
Most policy discussions focus on supply-side solutions: building more/faster and denser housing (e.g. Arlington’s Missing Middle/Expanded Housing Option), incentivizing more existing home sales, or disincentivizing concentrated ownership by companies and individuals. Econ 101 tells us that more supply = lower prices = affordable housing (winner winner!).
This is the only path to stable, long-term housing affordability…BUT, at current interest rates, prices must drop 30-35% in the United States to become affordable, at current income levels. A 30-35% drop in home values would devastate the economy, so a supply-side solution won’t (shouldn’t) provide immediate affordability. (more…)
People gather to watch a sporting event at Ireland's Four Courts (via Ireland's Four Courts/Facebook)
Ireland’s Four Courts is celebrating its one-year anniversary of reopening after withstanding a fiery car crash in 2022.
The popular Courthouse pub at 2051 Wilson Blvd will host live music by D.C. area band Chasing Autumn, a raffle and karaoke from 5-8 p.m. tonight (Wednesday) to celebrate one year back in business. This is in addition to a $6 deal on draft beers and appetizers.
The plant-based business, found near the entrance of the Ballston Quarter’s food hall at 4238 Wilson Blvd, will soft open from 11 a.m.-midnight on Thursday and Friday before a Saturday grand opening.
Train at the Clarendon Metro station (Flickr pool photo by Jason Gooljar)
Median 2BR Rent Tops $3K — “Apartment rents in Arlington continue to rise, with the median monthly price for two-bedroom units now more than $3,000 a month, according to new data. Rents in Arlington increased 0.8 percent month-over-month in August, compared to a 0.1-percent decline nationally. Rents in Arlington now stand 4.7 percent higher than a year before — the seventh largest percentage increase among the 100 large urban areas tracked by Apartment List.” [Gazette Leader]
Flyovers Planned Today — From Arlington Alert: “A United States military aircraft flyover is scheduled for Wednesday, September 4, at 11:45 AM at @ArlingtonNatl… A second United States military aircraft flyover is scheduled for this afternoon, September 4, at 1:20 PM at @ArlingtonNatl. While there will be an increase in air traffic noise, there is no cause for alarm.” [Twitter, Twitter]
Clement on Commission Change — “In an e-mail to supporters, Audrey Clement took issue with revisions that explicitly prohibit those thousands working for the county government from going to the Human Rights Commission for redress of employment concerns. That prohibition, long implicit, was made explicit in changes to the ordinances approved during an unusual August special meeting of the County Board.” [Gazette Leader]
ARLnow Publishing AP Articles — ARLnow is among the local news organizations participating in the following: “The Associated Press and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation… announced they will work together to ensure AP’s election content and services are accessible to local newsrooms in battleground states ahead of the U.S. presidential election.” [Associated Press]
List of Local Races — “It tracks that a region crowned the fittest and healthiest would host a bevy of cardio-crushing races. Carb-load, hydrate, stretch and take to the streets to feel the wind in your bib at these upcoming runners’ events.” [Arlington Magazine]
W-L Notches Blowout Win — “The Washington-Liberty Generals rolled up 421 total yards in their 49-13 opening-season victory over the visiting Edison Eagles on Aug. 30. The Generals also defeated Edison by a similar 45-13 score in last season’s opener. The first-week victory was the third in a row for Washington-Liberty.” [Gazette Leader]
Fall Foliage Forecast — “Using historical weather reports, tree species info, and user data, travel brand SmokyMountains.com put together 2024 foliage prediction maps of the U.S. In much of D.C., Virginia, and Maryland, leaves are predicted to change color by early October. Peak is predicted around Oct. 23, and past peak by Nov. 6.” [Axios]
Cooler September on Tap — “September has started off in style, with sunny highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees and crisp lows in the 50s. Near-normal to cooler-than-normal weather is likely for most of next week as well. Based on the weather pattern and computer model forecasts, we project a slightly cooler-than-normal September overall, with the average temperature about 1 to 2 degrees lower than the norm of 72.4 degrees.” [Capital Weather Gang]
It’s Wednesday — Expect a partly sunny day with temperatures reaching up to 77°F, accompanied by an east wind blowing at 5 to 9 mph. As for Wednesday night, the weather will be partly cloudy, with the temperature dropping to around 58°F. [NWS]
Arlington County police cars (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Arlington County police just announced an arrest in the Monday afternoon shooting in the Arlington View neighborhood.
Police say two groups of people were engaged in a dispute when “suspects from each group brandished and discharged firearms.” No injuries were reported.
Expect a partly sunny day with temperatures reaching up to 77°F, accompanied by an east wind blowing at 5 to 9 mph. As for Wednesday night, the weather will be partly cloudy, with the temperature dropping to around 58°F and a gentle northeast wind ranging from 3 to 7 mph. See more from Weather.gov.
💡 Quote of the Day
“You have not lived today until you have done something for someone who can never repay you.” – John Bunyan
The Arlington Players cast and crew of "The Prom" in spring 2024 (via The Arlington Players/Facebook)
A full slate of artistic performances are coming to Arlington this fall and winter.
From the D.C.-area premiere of a Pulitzer Prize winning play to a comedy show starring the actor who played Todd Packer on “The Office,” here’s a look at musicals, concerts, plays and shows that are coming to the county in coming weeks and months.