This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: I have seen multiple posts online that the D.C. area market is getting flooded with inventory and is crashing, is that accurate?
Answer: I was planning to do a lovely post this week on 2025 design trends (maybe next week?), but social media exploded over the weekend with posts about the D.C. area market being flooded with homes for sale and crashing due to the DOGE/Trump government cuts. After about 20 different people texted me about it, I figured I’d use this week’s column to correct the misinformation hitting so many of your newsfeeds.
Short Answer: The D.C. area market is not currently showing signs of a crash or being flooded with unseasonably high numbers of homes for sale.
For a longer response, I’ll share and respond to a handful of the posts/stats that have gotten the most exposure on social media…
“Everything is being put on the market”
The post screenshot below kicked off the frenzy (11M views in 36 hours) of people-on-the-internet making false claims of a D.C. area market crash/inventory flood. One would think that somebody by the name of Darth Powell (64,000 followers) whose bio states they are a “housing market savant” would surely know what they’re talking about, right? Sadly, no.
What Darth Powell is suggesting is that the visual of so many listings in Coming Soon status suggests that everybody is suddenly putting their home up for sale.
For context, the reason a seller would enter their home into the MLS in Coming Soon status is because they get the benefits of massive marketing exposure (reaches all agents in the MLS and syndicates to all consumer-facing sites like Zillow) without accruing “days on market” before they are ready to “go Active” and start showing the home and hosting Open Houses (note: the MLS restricts and enforces a ban on showings while in Coming Soon status).
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: Are the current and future cuts to government jobs and contracts by Trump/Elon Musk/DOGE negatively effecting real estate values and demand?
Answer: With recent announcements of government workforce and contract cuts, led by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk, and the Trump administration, many are wondering how these changes impact the local D.C.-area real estate market. While uncertainty looms, making forecasting difficult, here’s what I’m seeing on the ground and what it could mean for buyers and sellers in 2025 and beyond.
I’m not going to rehash what’s happening in the federal workforce and contractor space because it’s 90% of the news cycle and you can find more detailed and current information across many news outlets, but personally, I’ve followed the excellent coverage of Arlington-based Axios.
Market Remains Strong…
I’ll cut to the chase — so far, in most sub-markets, my team and I have not seen many signals of demand dropping enough to have a measurably negative effect on real estate values. We have been involved in (on the buy and list side), and been privy to, numerous sales with competing offers, escalating prices, and stripped down/out contingencies that have all become the norm during the Q1/Q2 market. These examples have shown up across the Greater D.C. Area, in different property types (single-family detached, townhouse, and condo), and at various price levels (more on this later).
…Despite Less Market Demand & Intensity
During Q1 of each year, I look closely at the intensity of competition, not just the existence of competition. I define intensity by the percentage of properly marketed and priced homes that are getting multiple offers, the number of offers coming in (this is critical, especially for forecasting the Q2/Q3 market), and how much contract prices are escalating over prior year pricing. The structure of the real estate industry makes this difficult to measure accurately early in the year because it’s more anecdotal than scientific, but I get a feel for it by late-January/early-February and this year market intensity is down from this time last year (and the last five years). It’s hard to say how much of this can be attributed to persistently high interest rates vs the federal workforce cuts.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: How did Arlington’s single-family detached market perform in 2024?
Answer: Starting this week, you can find some of my upcoming pre-market listings at the end of my article. For more information about these listings or more pre-market listings, feel free to reach out to me at [email protected].
With even less available inventory in 2024 than in 2023, low supply levels drove the average price of a single-family detached (SFD) home in Arlington up by 6.8% to an average price of more than $1,450,000 while the median price increased by 5% to nearly $1,280,000. Despite the strong gains, this is the first time since 2019 that condo prices outpaced SFD prices. Last week we did a deep dive into the 2024 condo market, so this week we’ll dive into Arlington’s 2024 SFD market…
The data below looks at Arlington’s SFD market last year and the trends over the past five years. Most real estate data sets look at numbers based on the year a home sold/settled, but I prefer to look at data based on when a home went under contract because it gives a more accurate reflection of what was happening in the marketplace at the time the deal was agreed to. In past analysis, I have used “net” prices (sold price less seller closing cost credits), but due to MLS data changes, this data does not net out closing cost credits.
Supply Down, Prices Up
The available supply of SFD homes in Arlington continues sinking to new lows since 2022, putting immense upwards pressure on prices, despite lower demand. The result is an increase of 25.6% and 28% in the average and median price, respectively, of SFD homes in Arlington over the past five years.
The average price of a SFD home increased by 6.8% to over $1.45M. Removing new construction from the data, the average SFD resale price increased by 6.8% to nearly $1.33M.
The median price of a SFD home increased by 5% to over $1.28M
The average buyer paid 0.4% over the seller’s original asking price across all SFD homes, but for homes purchased within the first ten days on market (59% of all sales), the average buyer paid 4.2% over the seller’s original asking price
New builds sold for an average of $2.365M, 8.3% more than last year, but just a bit higher than in 2022
Just 6% of SFD homes sold for less than $800,000 and many of them will be torn down and replaced with a new home
17% of homes sold for over $2M, while just 14% sold for $1.6M-$2M
In 2020, almost half of the homes sold were $800k-$1.2M, in 2024 just over 1/3 fell within that range
Homes with 3-5 bedrooms make up more than 84% of the homes sold
Single Family Market Review 2024Distribution Of Single Family Detached Prices 2020-2024Bedroom Count As Percentage Of Total Sales 2020-2024
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: How did Arlington’s condo market perform in 2024?
Answer: The condo market is usually pretty stable, without much appreciation, but as we closed out 2023, I was observing signs of upward price pressure in the condo market which turned into uncharacteristically strong price appreciation for Arlington condos in 2024. By the time I ran my mid-year condo market review in July, prices were up double-digits in many sub-markets. As is usually the case, things cooled off a bit in the second half of the year, but the strong gains mostly held with the average price of an Arlington condo 9.7% higher in 2024 than in 2023. Let’s dig into the 2024 condo market performance…
The data below looks at Arlington’s condo market, specifically multi-family condos, last year and the trends over the past five years. Most real estate data sets look at numbers based on the year a home sold/settled, but I prefer to look at data based on when a home went under contract because it gives a more accurate reflection of what was happening in the marketplace at the time the deal was agreed to. In past analysis, I have used “net” prices (sold price less seller closing cost credits), but due to MLS data changes, this data does not net out closing cost credits.
Condo Market Up Big, Two-Bedrooms Lead
A ton of condo inventory was unleashed into the market from 2020-2022 during the COVID years and it took a while for it to be absorbed, but by the end of 2023, inventory levels had dropped well below the ten-year average, setting up a strong year in 2024.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: How did the D.C. area market perform last year?
Answer: Most of the D.C. area housing market put forth a strong performance in 2024, which meant good times for sellers and harder time for buyers. One of the few exceptions was the Washington, D.C. condo market, which saw lower demand, increasing inventory, and downward pricing pressure.
D.C. Area Appreciation Almost Double National Appreciation
The average sold price of homes in the Greater D.C. Area increased by 6.7% in 2024, compared to the National average of 3.8% (lower by some sources), led by another year of strong price growth of detached single-family homes.
Over the past ten years, homes in the Greater D.C. Area have appreciated by an average of 4.6% with the last annual decrease coming in 2009.
How Much Did Homes Appreciate By The Year
Historically Low Numbers of Homes Traded Hands
Fewer homes have traded hands in the past two years than any other 24-month period in the last thirty years, despite the population and housing supply increasing significantly during that period. The number of homes sold in 2023 and 2024 are 24% and 22% lower than the ten-year average from 2013-2022.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: What changes are you seeing in homeowners insurance practices around here?
Answer:
Trouble for Insurers, Trouble for Homeowners Everywhere
An increase in insurance claims resulting from natural disasters and sharp increases in the cost of servicing the claims (more expensive labor and materials) is causing broad and significant ripple effects across the insurance industry that touches homeowners across the country. Dropped or denied coverage are becoming more common over issues that never would have been a concern just a few years ago.
Homeowners insurance is a requirement for anybody getting a mortgage to purchase a home so the risk of denied or significantly higher coverage is creeping into the real estate industry as a transactional risk that didn’t previously exist. One step I’ve started taking before submitting offers for clients is gathering a history of any insurance claims on a property over the past seven years that could affect a future owner’s ability to get coverage or make that coverage more expensive.
Advice from Guest Contributer, Seth Kutner of ACO Insurance
I asked Seth Kutner of ACO Insurance, who I use personally and recommend to my clients (and to you), to provide an explanation of the most significant changes he’s seeing in homeowners insurance practices in the DMV. If you have additional questions or would like to discuss your insurance policies with Seth, you can reach him at [email protected] or (703) 732-5053.
Take it away Seth…
Over the past year, homeowners have felt increasing frustration with their homeowner’s insurance. Insurance carriers have significantly tightened their underwriting guidelines in an effort to reduce losses, which has made it harder for many people to find coverage. Two key issues are causing the most headaches: the number of claims filed and the age of roofs.
Avoid Unnecessary Calls to the Claims Department
What most people don’t realize is that simply calling the claims department — even if you’re just asking a question — results in a “$0 claim” being logged. While you may not file an actual claim, this record can still impact your eligibility for coverage.
To avoid this, it’s always best to reach out to your insurance agent before you make a call to the insurance company. They can help you navigate the situation, offering guidance on whether it’s worth filing a claim, and ultimately protecting you from the potential negative consequences of a recorded claim that doesn’t go through.
Consider Increasing your Deductible, Avoid Small Claims
Another trend we’re seeing is that carriers are scrutinizing the number of claims more than ever before. Given this, it may be wise to consider increasing your deductible. It’s often not worth filing small claims, those around $1,000, so raising your deductible could help save you money on your premium in the long run and discourage you from filing claims that could be costly in the long run.
Roof Age, Condition Highly Scrutinized
Roof age is becoming a significant obstacle to coverage in the DMV. While most roofs last between 30 and 40 years, carriers are becoming increasingly reluctant to insure homes with roofs older than 20 years (less in some areas), mainly due to the rising frequency of storm-related damage and the lack of proper roof maintenance. This is one of the biggest pain points for insurers today, and it’s causing many homeowners to face challenges when shopping for coverage.
In today’s market, being proactive about your insurance strategy is more important than ever. By working closely with your insurance agent and considering adjustments like higher deductibles, you can protect yourself from potential surprises and keep your coverage secure.
Eli’s Closing Thoughts
In 2019, I wrote this article (15 minutes not enough for homeowners insurance) about the importance of working with a real person/professional on your insurance policy rather than using a quick online or call center process. That rings true now more than ever. What many people don’t realize is that the quick online/call center insurance approach isn’t getting you a bargain on your insurance premiums, it’s just saving you a little bit of time, but that small amount of time saved can end up being extraordinarily costly to you in the future if you have the wrong coverage during a time of need.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
It’s always fun taking a look back at the most expensive homes sold in the D.C., Maryland, and Virginia (DMV) region each year (see 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020) so let’s jump right into some amazing real estate that changed hands in 2024 (Note: this includes what is entered into the MLS, it’s certainly possible (likely) that expensive homes have traded hands privately outside of the MLS).
The most expensive home sold in 2024 was a $25,500,000 McLean home built in 2022, perched above the Potomac River. It edged out, this incredible home in Washington, D.C., along Foxhall Road, that sold for an even $25,000,000.
Listed by Mark Lowham, TTR Sothebys International Realty (700 Bulls Neck Road, McLean, VA 22102)
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
On Tuesday, January 14, I’ll be hosting another Ask Eli Home Buyer Workshop with my business partner Jean Ropp and local Loan Officer, Matt Ropp, with Atlantic Coast Mortgage. Food and drinks will be provided!
The workshop is a free and will cover:
New laws affecting buyer agent representation and commission
How to use data and strategy to maximize your home purchase
How to use market trends to your advantage
The latest on interest rates and mortgage programs/products
Common mistakes to avoid and some tips for success
Who is it for?
Any buyer type from first-time buyer to experienced buyers
Ready to purchase now or planning 12+ months out
Home buyers in Northern Virginia, D.C., or the Maryland Suburbs
You or anybody you know who would benefit
Where and When?
Tuesday, January 14 from 6-7:30 p.m.
Arlington Central Library (1015 N. Quincy Street), Bluemont Room
Registration is now open and space is limited. Click the graphic below to RSVP.
Bring your appetite and your home buying questions! I’d love to see you there. Feel free to email me at [email protected] with any questions about the event.
Ask Eli’s Buyer Workshop Jan. 14
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Merry Christmas and Hanukkah Eve! I’m grateful for another year with the opportunity to connect with you each week about real estate. The ARLnow community is wonderful and unique — thank you to Scott and the ARLnow team for building and supporting a platform that is a true community benefit.
Every year I like to reflect on what I’m most grateful for about living and working in Arlington. I also love to hear from you on the same. Here’s my list:
Diversity of Great Food
Arlington itself offers wonderfully diverse cuisines and when you add neighboring jurisdictions of Washington, D.C., Annandale, Alexandria, and Falls Church to the mix we have access to delicious international cuisine from every corner of the world within 20-30 minutes.
Passionate Neighbors
While we lack agreement on topics like Missing Middle, we do not lack passion. I appreciate how passionate both sides of the Missing Middle policy are and trust that in the long run, that passion will result in a great next generation housing policy for Arlington.
Airports
I don’t travel often, but when I do I’m grateful for our nearby national and international airports that are easily accessible by multiple modes of public and private transportation.
Parks and Recreation
No matter where you live in Arlington, you have access to an incredible network of trails, parks, and rec centers for endless outdoor enjoyment that costs nothing. Arlington’s trails and parks have given me so much joy over the years with family and friends.
Schools
Being an educator has become extraordinarily difficult and complex and I’m grateful for all the hardworking teachers, staff, and administrators who work hard, oftentimes thankless, hours keeping the Arlington Public Schools among the best in the country for our kids.
Jobs and Small Businesses
The robust and diverse job market in Arlington keeps unemployment low and the economy thriving. I’m especially thankful for all the entrepreneurs and risk-takers who fill every nook and cranny of Arlington with small businesses despite the daily challenges.
Tonya Nelson (Director of Everything): Where would I be without Tonya? She allows me to be a father, husband, and friend and keeps the ship straight every day of the week. Thanks and gratitude will never be enough.
Val Connolly (Agent): We’ve worked as colleagues and partners for a decade and she’s now building a great business around her new home in Loudoun County.
Jean Ropp (Agent): Amazing mother of two beautiful little boys and still works her tail off for clients with endless smiles and positivity.
Carolanne Korolowicz (Agent): A new mother and 6t generation Arlingtonian, I learn something interesting from her about Arlington and its history every time we talk.
Brian Wyatt (Retired): Brian and I got to spend seven years working together from the very earliest days of ERG. It was a great journey together, enjoy retirement!
From left to right: Jean, Val, Tonya and Carolanne
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
On Tuesday, January 14, I’ll be hosting another Ask Eli Home Buyer Workshop with my business partner Jean Ropp and local Loan Officer, Matt Ropp, with Atlantic Coast Mortgage. Food and drinks will be provided!
The workshop is a free and will cover:
New laws affecting buyer agent representation and commission
How to use data and strategy to maximize your home purchase
How to use market trends to your advantage
The latest on interest rates and mortgage programs/products
Common mistakes to avoid and some tips for success
Who is it for?
Any buyer type from first-time buyer to experienced buyers
Ready to purchase now or planning 12+ months out
Home buyers in Northern Virginia, D.C., or the Maryland Suburbs
You or anybody you know who would benefit
Where and When?
Tuesday, January 14 from 6-7:30 p.m.
Arlington Central Library (1015 N. Quincy Street), Bluemont Room
Registration is now open and space is limited. Click the graphic below to RSVP.
Bring your appetite and your home buying questions! I’d love to see you there. Feel free to email me at [email protected] with any questions about the event.
Ask Eli’s Buyer Workshop Jan. 14
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: If somebody slips and gets hurt on the icy sidewalk outside of my home, will my homeowner’s insurance cover medical bills?
Answer: Winter introduced a slew of risks for homeowners, many of which can be managed through proper insurance coverage and planning (don’t forget to winterize your exterior plumbing!). I talked to my go-to insurance contact, Seth Kutner of ACO Insurance ([email protected]) about common winter claims and how they are handled by homeowners insurance.
Homeowners insurance can cover most winter-related claims if the policy is set up properly. Considering the high cost of the average insurance claim, it’s important to know what is and isn’t covered.
Trip & Fall Lawsuits
Make sure to properly clear your sidewalk area of snow and ice because you may be liable for someone tripping and falling on the sidewalk outside of your house in hazardous conditions. The liability coverage on your homeowners insurance will cover this and Seth recommends that everyone have a minimum of $500,000 in liability coverage.
Burst Pipes Due to Freezing
During the winter months, freezing pipes are a common issue that can lead to major problems. When the temperature drops, water inside your pipes can freeze, causing the pipes to expand and potentially burst. This can lead to significant water damage, expensive repairs, and the inconvenience of being without running water. To prevent freezing pipes, make sure to insulate any exposed pipes, especially those in unheated areas.
If you do experience freezing pipes, it is important to call a plumber right away to help clear the pipe. In most cases, damage caused by a burst pipe from freezing is covered by insurance, a common exception is to a vacant home with the heat off.
Wind Damage
Whether wind directly damages your home or causes a tree to fall on your home, most policies cover the resulting damage. The deductible that you pay for this type of claim may be different than your normal deductible. Depending on your policy, this could be 2-5 times larger than your normal deductible. Some insurance companies have raised these deductibles and unless you have read your declaration pages (not common), you may not be aware of the changes.
Water Backup
After snow melts, it can create a large amount of water around the house. If you have a sump-pump, make sure that your insurance policy covers “Water/Sewer Backup” or the damage caused if your sump pump fails might not be covered. This is one of the most common home insurance gaps that catches homeowners off-guard with expensive uncovered repairs.
Chimney Inspections
As the weather gets cold, many homeowners will be firing up their chimney (literally). Regular chimney inspections are essential. Over time, chimneys accumulate debris, soot, and creosote, which are not only fire hazards but can also obstruct proper airflow, leading to dangerous carbon monoxide indoors.
Regular inspections and chimney cleaning will help minimize risk, so you don’t find yourself with a fire-related insurance claim (covered) or breathing hazardous carbon monoxide.
I find that homeowners insurance is often an afterthought for many homeowners. It’s a box they check when buying a home and they choose the path of least resistance to get a policy. It’s this approach that can leave you exposed and surprised by costly uncovered insurance events.
Having a real person review and design a policy for you based on where you live, what you own, and the type of home you’re in can be extraordinarily valuable. If you need a great resource for this, reach out to Seth at [email protected].
Shoveling Snow (credit: Adobe Stock)
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@EliResidential.com.
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: I’ve noticed that the market has slowed down quite a bit the last few months. Is that a sign that the market is finally turning?
Answer: I hope everybody had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Last week, I asked everybody to vote on whether you should start eating your Thanksgiving meal before 5 p.m. or 5 p.m. or later. With 825 total votes, 77% of you said the meal should start before 5 p.m. and 23% voted for 5 p.m. or later. We aimed to start our meal at 4 p.m., but ended up starting at 5 p.m.
Will The Slow Market Continue into 2025?
Like clockwork, the second half of the year is slower than the first half (except when COVID flipped 2020 upside down) and it gets especially slow in the 4th quarter as focus shifts to holidays, family/friend time, and travel. This period of seasonal slowness consistently succeeds in lulling the market to sleep, resulting in predictions that whatever economic/housing headwinds exist at the time (high rates, rattled economy, affordability crisis, etc) will result in a down housing market the following year.
These predictions are consistently wrong, and the market usually proves that within the first few weeks of the new year.
The Data Says Prepare for a Rapid Increase in Demand
The data in the chart below is collected from Arlington sales going back to 2019, sans 2020 data and new construction. It shows market performance based on the week that properties go under contract based on the percentage of properties selling over the original ask, percentage of properties selling at or over the original ask, and the percentage of properties selling within ten days on market (my preferred measure of market speed).
The highlight of the chart is how rapidly the market shifts in January, relative to the previous 1-2 months. By the third week of January, the market is moving faster than it has in over three months and by the fourth week of the year, the market is experiencing stronger performance than it has in nearly every week over the past six months.
Only 27% of properties that go under contract in the second half of the year are over the asking price, but from the fourth week of January through May, an average of 45% of homes sell for over the asking price.
For buyers in the market, it’s important to also prepare for just how quickly homes will start selling. In the last seven weeks of the year, only 33% of homes were going under contract in the first ten days, but that jumps to over 46% by the third week of January and by early February over 50% of homes sell within the first ten days on market and the pace hovers around 60%-70% through May.
These percentages will vary based on the market conditions of a given year, but the important takeaway is how quickly demand shifts in the new year relative to the end of the prior year. As a reminder, Q4 ’22 to Q1 ’23, a period many predicted would result in a continuation of a slow/down market, delivered us the most significant whiplash effect through a new calendar year we have seen.
Contract Week Performance
You can see a similar shift in market conditions in this chart from Altos Research showing the percentage of properties in Arlington on market that have had a price decrease. The steep drops you see start when the calendar turns to January.
Properties With Price Decrease
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
