The Right Note

County Board Members Garvey, Gutshall and de Ferranti also chimed in with their current priorities at the annual organizational meeting. Each gave a nod to the budget process which will undoubtedly result in a hefty tax rate increase. The ongoing questions with Amazon’s arrival, soaring housing costs, transportation and schools were on also their lists in one way or another.

Newcomer Matthew de Ferranti recapped his campaign promises in his speech. Oddly, he put building a new high school at the top of his list for the 2020 budget process. Since he is not on the School Board, one can only assume that item is what he will hang his hat on in order to vote for a tax rate increase.

On Jan. 2, the County Board held its organizational meeting for 2019 with speeches from each County Board member outlining their priorities for the year. Today, I will focus on the remarks from our current Chairman Christian Dorsey as well as our outgoing Chair Katey Cristol.

Christian Dorsey was elected to take the center seat as chairman for 2019. Early in his remarks, Dorsey did what was expected, set the stage for why a tax rate increase would be necessary, primarily blaming a “depressed” tax base, primarily because of a low commercial vacancy rate.

Next week, the County Board will meet for its annual organizational meeting, and it will do so with a new member for the first time since 2016. While the annual tradition of meeting on New Year’s Day seems to be relegated to the past, the tradition of speeches filled with a laundry list of “priorities” is here to stay.

Here are 10 questions the Board should try to answer as they craft their messages to Arlingtonians:

Tis the season of reflecting on the year that is almost behind us and looking forward to the year to come.

Here are a few things that caught my eye this week as we are rounding the corner into 2019.

The County Board will close out the year at its Dec. 15 meeting by considering their legislative priorities and policy statements to transmit to the Virginia General Assembly.

The Board’s top priorities are more money for education and transportation. They also would like some of the money back that was used to pay for Medicaid expansion, an initiative they supported. According to their priorities, they would be happy to pay for any spending increases with new taxes on internet sales as well as the extra revenue created by the federal tax cut. The County Board will have to get in line behind the $462.5 million shortfall in the Medicaid budget that will have to be made up first.

Democrats took advantage of the anti-Washington and anti-Republican environment in Arlington to dramatically boost turnout and defeat an otherwise popular independent incumbent John Vihstadt. If you are Christian Dorsey or Katie Cristol, you may regret the outcome in 2019 if Vihstadt opts to run again.

While voter turnout trends are on the uptick, it is unlikely there will be the same surge of voter enthusiasm when there is no top of the ticket race driving votes in an odd numbered year. It would prove to be a huge advantage to Vihstadt who has a deep and loyal base of support across every political persuasion.  While it would be easy to understand if Vihstadt decides not to spend another year campaigning, he might enter the race as a favorite to take one of the two seats.

Here is what we know. In Arlington, our property taxes go up every year. The county takes in more revenue every year than the year before. Not only that, but the county takes in more revenue than they estimate when they pass the budget every year. And as they approach each new budget year, the county estimates their will be a “budget gap” every year in order to justify rising assessments and tax rates.

Next year is no exception to any of these things. The difference this time around is talk of large “unknown” costs on top of the estimated gap is larger for next year. While the guidance to the county manager says the gap will be $20-35 million, the county is hinting it may be looking for as much as $78 million.

Another election day is in the books. Gone, for at least the next nine months, are the over-the-top campaign ads, flyers and emails that invade our lives in the run-up to election day every year in Virginia.

Politics is, and has always been, a contact sport. The 1800 presidential election for example between Adams and Jefferson quickly devolved into name calling. And the negative tactics will almost certainly continue until they no longer work. With 24-hour cable news preaching to their own choirs and with the unlimited reach of social media to the devices in our pockets, there may be no end in sight.

On the County Board agenda this past week was the County Manager’s recommendations on closeout spending for this year. The manager recommended that $16.5 million be set aside to offset next year’s budget.

This is certainly better than spending all of it now and causing tax rates to go even higher next year. However, the proposal still falls short of where we need to be.

An article this week at the Sun Gazette suggested the County Board race was a referendum on the incumbent. If that were the case, many Arlington politicos believe John Vihstadt would win in a landslide.

The fact is Vihstadt’s reelection is not a lock Nov. 6. The 2018 political environment is much more favorable to Democrats than it was in 2014 when Vihstadt comfortably won a full term. Many Democrats who are expected to vote in 2018, but did not in 2014, may not be as tuned in to local issues as they are to what is going on across the river in Washington.

Last week, it came to light a memo had been produced in May by someone at Metro outlining the system’s ridership woes and some possible solutions. According to the Washington Post, this memo never made it all the way up to the general manager or the WMATA Board.

From the memo: “The fundamental factors — fares, location, speed, frequency, and reliability — matter most and Metro’s recent actions have put downward pressure on ridership.” And it found the group driving the ridership decline the fastest are those who had used the system the most.

Arlington Public Schools finally released the long-awaited audit of school construction costs. The bottom line from the auditor is that Arlington’s past construction costs are generally in line with other jurisdictions in the area.

However, according to the document, the new Wilson school would cost over $555 per square foot and $130,000 per seat. The per seat number is more than double the per seat cost for recent school buildings in the county. In other words, Arlington should be able to add up to twice as many seats for the money.