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Ask Eli: Amazon Housing Impact Check-in

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Has there been an increase in the number of homeowners putting their home on the market after Amazon’s decision to move to Arlington?

Answer: For me, this was the big unknown — would the announcement of Amazon HQ2 cause homeowners to quickly put their homes up for sale to take advantage of a higher resale value or would those owners decide to hold on for the mid/long run, hoping for a much greater return 5-10+ years from now? The early data in Arlington and Alexandria suggests a preference for the latter.

New Listings Way Down

The easiest way to answer the question is to look at the Year-over-Year change in the number of new listings to hit the market each month. Over the last three months, the YoY difference in new listings in Arlington has been -11%, -18.4% and -13.9%. The City of Alexandria has followed a similar pattern.

Months of Supply… Also Way Down

Months of Supply is a supply/demand reading that tells you how many months it would take for all the homes currently on the market (supply) to sell, given the current rate of sales (demand). Economists generally consider six months of supply to represent a well-balanced real estate market for both buyers and sellers.

Arlington and the City of Alexandria have hovered around 2-3 months of supply for most of the past 6-7 years, having never dropped below the one-month mark for 10+ years… until December 2018, when the two combined to average about .75 months of supply each of the last three months.

What Does This Mean For Northern Virginia?

You can shield the Seven Kingdoms from White Walkers by stacking up all of the frustrated buyers searching in Arlington and Alexandria.

Some may decide to pass on buying a home and continue renting, find a way to make their existing homes work, or move out of the area altogether, but many others will start to look further west for value (it’s there, trust me). Expect to see an immediate spillover into Annandale, Falls Church and Springfield; that shift has already started with many of our clients.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.

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