This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!
Question: Do you expect Arlington to suffer from an urban migration to less populous areas due to COVID-19?
Answer: There has been no shortage of articles written about COVID’s impact on desirability of urban living and areas like NYC and SF have already seen drops in demand. I wrote a couple of weeks ago that demand (measured by absorption rate) in Arlington seemed to be tapering slightly, while increasing across Northern Virginia. This could be a sign that some buyers are choosing more distant/less populous communities, but it could also be a result of how little inventory there is and how quickly prices have gone up.
I don’t think we’ll know how COVID will impact long-term demand in Arlington until we see whether or not it results in substantial changes to where/how people work. Most people I’ve spoken to don’t know whether their employers will make permanent changes to telework schedules or flex hours, or whether they will return to their pre-COVID work routines once life returns to normal.
Commute times are a top-three consideration for most Arlington residents so it’s hard to argue that a trend towards 50% or more telework days per month won’t reduce housing demand in Arlington. The next decade is also likely to bring major improvements to autonomous driving and the commuting experience which will allow some to bear longer commutes by increasing productivity during the drive.
But just how much would net demand change? I can also see a scenario where Arlington residents who leave for more space and/or less expensive housing are replaced by new residents from cities like D.C., NYC, or SF looking for a better balance of urban and suburban life.
Major shifts in telework and commuting may reduce long-term demand for Arlington housing, but I think it’s far from a doomsday scenario where the bottom drops out of the market. Commuting is still just one factor of a much larger set of needs and wants that Arlington offers its residents so it’s more likely to result in tapered housing appreciation over the long-term, rather than negative growth.
Let’s check back in on this in 2025 to see how we’re doing…
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.
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St. Charles offers a play-based curriculum in a welcoming, Christ-centered environment.
Our program focuses on socio-emotional development and kindergarten readiness through hands-on and engaging activities. Our programs offer different schedules ranging from 7:30 am-5:30 pm for students, ages 2-5. We feature a full-day Jr. kindergarten class for older 4’s/5’s. Our facility includes a full-sized gymnasium, school chapel, and library. All of our students enjoy music and physical education weekly. Children have an opportunity to participate in enrichment classes such as soccer, basketball, ballet, and science.
We offer Summer Camp with weekly themes and twice a week water play, including Fun Friday moon bounce. Please join us for our Open House Feb. 3 at 9:30 am and 11:00 am. Click here to sign-up.
For more information or to schedule a tour, visit us at www.stcharlesarlington.org or call (703) 527-0608.
If you are a lifelong learner over 50+ who wants to make new friends, power up your brain, and enjoy a wide-variety college-level courses, Encore Learning is for you. An Arlington based nonprofit, Encore Learning offers courses in the arts, theater, literature, history, technology and more. This semester we offer our most popular course, Global Hot Spots as well as 25 new courses. Courses are presented either online or in-person at George Mason University at Virginia Square and other Arlington locations.
Join the free presentation to learn about courses and meet the instructors. This is Encore Learning’s signature event to highlight the upcoming semester with brief presentations by each instructor.
The Spring Course Preview event is Thursday, February 2nd at 9:30 AM via Zoom:
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