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Ask Eli: Housing Market Update, Condo Slide Continues

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Last month you wrote about troubling signs in the condo market. Do you see things leveling off or getting worse?

Answer: The trends I wrote about last month — shifting demand in single-family housing out west and troubling signs in the Arlington/D.C. condo market — continued through September with the developing changes in the condo market being the most noticeable. Let’s take a look at what we’re seeing in the housing market through September…

Arlington/D.C. Condo Inventory Piling Up

The number of condos listed for sale in Arlington during September (261) ranks as the 2nd most in any month over the last 10+ years, trailing a record-setting April 2016 volume (268) by just seven. The last time we had this much active condo inventory on the market in Arlington was September 2017 and you have to go back to September 2016 for a month with higher Months of Supply (measure of supply and demand).

Our neighbors in D.C. blew past all-time highs over the last 10+ years with 969 condos listed for sale, well above the record set this past July (863). Three of the four months with 750+ condo listings in D.C. have taken place in the last three months. You have to go back to June 2011 for a month with more active condo inventory in D.C. and July 2012 for a month with higher Months of Supply.

Fairfax and Loudoun County Condos Doing Fine/Better

While Fairfax and Loudoun County condo markets are seeing a similar late-season surge in listings, those markets are doing a better job of absorbing the inventory, so Months of Supply measures are still much more favorable for sellers with Fairfax County getting only slightly worse in 2020 and Loudoun County actually getting even more competitive.

Arlington Single-Family Market Stable

Arlington’s single-family market remains stable and is more reflective of the slight slowdown we expect around this time of the year, especially one month from an election. Single-family homes are still selling at peak prices, albeit sometimes with slightly higher days on market and fewer offers than earlier in the year.

We’re experiencing unusually high listing volume for this time of year, but that was expected given how little inventory was listed this spring/early summer. The number of single-family homes listed for sale in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 is up 42.5% over Q3 2019, but active listings are up just 2.1% for the same period, suggesting that the market has had no problems absorbing the extra inventory…and higher prices.

Sellers have not missed the memo that prices and demand are up in Arlington for single-family homes. September is the first month in 2020 that the median asking price of active single-family listings dropped below $1.5M.

I hope you’ve found this market overview interesting and/or helpful. If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

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