Press Club

Ask Eli: 2021 Interest Rate Projections

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Do you expect mortgage rates to increase in 2021?

Answer: Happy new year everybody! Historically low mortgage rates in 2020 were one of a few factors that drove real estate prices up across the country (except in the condo market). This time last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac each predicted that rates would remain near 2019 levels through 2021, with an average 30-year fixed rate hovering around 3.7% to 3.8% through that period.

As it turns out, rates averaged about a full percent less than those projections. Rates fell consistently throughout the year, except for a brief but sharp increase in mid-March when markets went crazy with the first news of COVID-related shutdowns, until the Fed stepped in with liquidity.

Below are some charts from Freddie Mac showing average mortgage rates over the last 50, 10 and one year.

Average Mortgage Rates Since 1971

Average Mortgage Rates Since 2010

Average Mortgage Rates in 2020

Rates in 2021+

The Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac each predict that 30-year fixed rates will increase slightly in 2021 and hover around 3% to 3.2% in 2021. Beyond 2021, the Mortgage Bankers Association sees rates averaging 3.6% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023.

An increase to 4% or higher mortgage rates will likely cause the rapid appreciation we’ve seen over the last couple of years to slow down, but I don’t think it will lead to a pull-back in prices unless it is combined with a migration from the DC Metro due to major changes in telework policy.

If you’re considering purchasing in 2021, I wrote a column in 2019 about my favorite mortgage programs that you might find helpful. If there’s anything I can do to help you prepare for a purchase, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local Real Estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at 703-539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. 703-390-9460.

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