This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: How is the real estate market through the first quarter?
Answer: “How’s the market?” Well, technically, that answer depends on what market you’re talking about — location, property type, price point, etc. but for this column, I’ll provide an overview of what we’re generally seeing in the Arlington/Northern Virginia/D.C. area market these days.
- The market is competitive
- Demand is moderately high
- New listing volume is historically low
- Rates (Hopefully) Heading Down
- Ignore National Data
The Market is Competitive
Multiple offers, escalations, and reduced or no contingencies are common.
The data visualization below is from the listings that went under contract each of the last two weeks at our brokerage, RLAH @properties, of ~400 agents in the greater D.C. Metro area.
Demand is Moderately High
Demand is lower now than it was from late 2020 through early 2022, due to high interest rates.
The chart below shows the quarterly absorption ratio for Northern Virginia over the past decade. A higher ratio equals higher demand. We’ve fallen slightly from the post-Amazon HQ2 year (this was primarily driven by the condo market) and Covid buying years, but demand is still well above the “norm” established from 2013-2018.
New Listing Volume is Historically Low
The lack of new listings is driving competition, not high demand.
The chart below highlights the dramatic drop in new listing volume for the D.C. Metro area for Q4 and Q1, with about 10,000 fewer homes listed for sale during the most recent Q4/Q1 compared to previous years, or a ~25-30% drop for most D.C. area localities.
Rates (Hopefully) Heading Down
Inflation data suggests we’re heading firmly in the right direction and that puts downward pressure on interest rates. However, turmoil in the banking sector (SVB Collapse, commercial building loans) has caused demand for mortgage-backed securities to drop thus putting upward pressure on interest rate pricing.
Here’s a collection of some of the most recent interest rate forecasts through 2023:
Ignore National Data
Different markets, especially west coast (struggling) vs east coast (appreciating), are seeing very different data and make national data pretty useless to the individual homeowner/buyer.
The charts below show the wide range of national real estate price forecasts and a chart showing performance for major regional real estate markets around the country. Notice the variation between regional markets and you can understand why combining all of that data into one national pricing datapoint isn’t helpful.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Good Friday evening, Arlington. Let’s take a look back at today’s stories and a look forward to tomorrow’s event calendar. 🕗 News recap The following articles were published earlier today…
There’s no official word on its website, but it looks like Bar Ivy in Clarendon may have closed permanently.
There’s persistence, and then there is Audrey Clement and her decade-plus effort to get elected to local office in Arlington. Clement talked with ARLnow editor Scott Brodbeck to talk about…
Makers Union, an upscale gastropub, is set to open its doors in Pentagon City next week, says Alex Brown, the restaurant’s director of operations. This opening marks the third Makers Union location in the D.C. Metropolitan area, following the debut of its Reston location three years ago and a recent opening at the Wharf in early October.
Children’s Weekday Program (CWP) is a non-profit preschool rooted in a play-based philosophy. We focus on developing a love of learning and exploration, cooperation, empathy, and independence.
Our caring and experienced educators create opportunities for children 16 months to 5 years old to play, learn, and grow in a nurturing environment of child-centered and developmentally appropriate experiences.
Initially established more than 50 years ago in South Arlington, CWP continues to be a lauded program in the Northern Virginia area. We are extremely proud to have been recognized as a Best Preschool in Northern Virginia Magazine for the last 4 years.
Located now in North Arlington at 2666 Military Road, CWP offers a part-time parents day out and preschool program with options to extend care both before and after school. We offer a supportive and inclusive school community for children and parents alike and welcome all families to join our school!
The Optimist Club of Arlington is holding its 77th annual Christmas tree sale!
This year, the tree sale will be held at the Knights of Columbus (5115 Little Falls Road). The lot opens for sales on November 24th. The Optimist Club is selling small and large trees ranging from tabletop size to 10 foot tall trees! Wreaths, garland, tree stands, and White House Christmas ornaments will also be for sale.
100% of all proceeds go towards helping Arlington County youth.
For more information, please visit the Arlington Optimists website at https://optimistclubofarlingtonva.org/.
Holiday Art Show featuring artists: Peter Fitzgerald, Claire Plante, Alanna Rivera, and Suzy Scollon. At the Barcroft Community House, 800 South Buchanan St., Arlington, VA. Dec. 8 from, 2 PM to 8 PM and Dec. 9 from 10 AM to
2023 Christmas Tree Sales Begin
Saturday, December 2
Get your holiday decorating off to the right start this year! We will be selling 150 Fraser firs, freshly cut and delivered from Sparta, North Carolina.