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Murray Campaign Claims Advantage Among Independents

by ARLnow.com June 14, 2012 at 1:55 pm 2,621 21 Comments

The campaign of Republican congressional candidate Patrick Murray is claiming an advantage among independent voters — a claim his opponent’s campaign is vigorously disputing.

Murray is facing off against incumbent Rep. Jim Moran (D) in the Nov. 6 general election. The race will be a rematch of the 2010 race, in which Moran defeated Murray by a 24 point margin.

This time around, the Murray camp says they hold a convincing advantage among independent voters. In an email to supporters this week, the campaign said Murray holds an “astonishing” 26 point margin advantage against Moran among independent voters in Virginia’s Eighth District.

“The information we emailed out was based on thousands of phone calls the campaign has made to independent voters,” Murray spokesman Reece Collins told ARLnow.com. “From those who have responded to the survey, Patrick is ahead by a margin of 58 percent to 32 percent with 10 percent saying that they are undecided.”

“The results show that these swing voters are unhappy with the current Congressman and his hyper-partisan approach,” Collins continued. “Conversely, Patrick’s message of creating jobs and responsible government is clearly resonating.”

The Moran campaign, however, questioned the method by which the poll numbers were generated.

“Unless they have an actual firm willing to stand by the numbers and share methodology, they’re just making it up,” said Moran spokesman Austin Durrer. “Moran just won his primary… in a deep blue seat, one that Murray couldn’t come within 22 points of Jim in the worst year for Democrats in electoral history. In 2012, with the President and Tim Kaine at the top of the ticket, that challenge is even steeper.”

Moran defeated Democratic primary challenger Bruce Shuttleworth by a 48 point margin on Tuesday. Murray did not have a Republican primary opponent.

  • Mary-Austin

    There are independents in the 8th district?

    • EFC Observer

      I’d imagine there are some…the better question migth be, even if the I’s broke 58-32 in Murray’s favor, given the respective bases of each party in the 8th (particularly Arl & Alex), would that be enough to beat Moran, especially in a Prez election year?

      • FedUp

        No.

  • Pablo

    I’m no math wiz or pollster but if your numbers are based on “those who have responded to the survey,” that doesn’t sound very scientific. But then again, Republicans aren’t big on science these days.

    • Douglas Parker

      Science gets in the way of religion. The true and natural answer to all of our most important questions!

      • D’oh

        Assuming you mean Christianity. All the other religions are just superstitious nonsense with outrageous stories. Science was invented by the devil, just like taxes and social welfare.

  • drax

    Um, so, if this is true – how many independent voters are there out there? Does a 26% margin among them matter? How many Dems are in the 8th, and can that 26% overcome them? (Doubt it).

    With no real numbers, this really tells us nothing.

  • Buckwheat

    “Hot Shots Part Deux”!

    Accusations are starting again. Should be a colorful few months.

  • Harry

    This is an exercise in futility for Murray. Just like Moran’s people said, there will be a huge turnout for Obama and Kaine, and Murray will get steamrolled.

  • New Canaan

    The true futility lies with Obama and Kaine.

    • drax

      Insightful political analysis.

    • Pablo

      No doubt by someone who voted more than once for those problem solvers, the Georges.

  • FairlingtonD

    If I was asked that, I would say, “that’s a clown question, bro.”

  • Arlington, Northside

    Since one only declares Party affiliation when they run for office in the Commonwealth, in reality, all but the candidates are independents.

  • JohnB

    Dateline Nov 7, 2012:

    Jim Moran wins by 20 points.

    • Arlingtoon

      And 22% if he wears a clean shirt.

  • Joe Hoya

    I conducted a poll in my house. The dog barked and the hibiscus plant was silent. I’m going to mark both of those down in the Murray column, which means he should win come November.

    • drax

      Where’s Capt. McPuppo when you need him?

      Here boy!

    • Elmer

      But don’t forget to poll those young adults who have yet to leave the nest and are sleeping on their parents couches in this, the third-plus year of “Hope and Change”.
      Don’t hear that slogan much anymore. Wonder why??

      • Elmer

        2009’s “Hope and Change” has morphed into 2012’s “It Could Be Worse”.
        Now that’s a real “hopeful” theme.

        • Ogre

          I’ve had enough of Moron. This is the change we need now.

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