The Arlington Democratic primary is tomorrow (Tuesday).
Polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. as five candidates — James DeVita, Julie Farnam, Natalie Roy, Tenley Peterson and JD Spain — compete for the one open seat on the Arlington County Board. Historically, the victor of the Democratic primary tends to be a reliable predictor of the November general election outcome.
This will be the second time the county has used ranked choice voting, a method where voters rank candidates by preference.
“The old system measured intensity of feeling for a single candidate best,” Jeremy Mayer, an associate professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, told ARLnow. “Ranked choice voting allows more complicated preferences of voters to be heard, thus reducing the ‘wasted vote’ problem in which you don’t want to vote your true preference because your candidate has little chance.”
In the ranked-choice system, if no candidate gets more than half the votes at first, the one with the least votes is out. Votes for that candidate then go to the next picks listed by the voters and the process repeats until a candidate has more than half the votes.
Arlington has polling places in 54 local precincts. All Arlington voters, regardless of party affiliation, may cast ballots in the primary, and same-day registration is available.
In this year’s race, two candidates — Peterson and Spain — have maintained a commanding lead in official endorsements.
Peterson has earned the support of outgoing County Board Chair Libby Garvey and dozens of other current and former leaders in county government. Spain, for his part, has the backing of several union chapters and state officials, including Dels. Patrick Hope, Alfonso Lopez and Adele McClure, as well as the Virginia chapter of the National Organization for Women.
Endorsing Spain as their No. 1 pick and Peterson as No. 2 are Sen. Barbara Favola, County Board Vice-Chair Takis Karantonis, County Board member Matt de Ferranti, the regional Sierra Club chapter, YIMBYs of NoVa and Greater Greater Washington.
Roy also has endorsements from several former County Board members. But the second-time candidate who earned 31% of the vote last year has cast herself as strongly anti-establishment, taking aim at the county’s approaches to densification and housing policy — especially Missing Middle.
DeVita and Farnam have raised similar concerns, with Farnam also taking aim at public safety issues in Arlington.
Although primary elections tend to favor establishment candidates, Mayer noted that ranked choice voting ultimately supports candidates who are able to rally the broadest coalition.
“I don’t think ranked choice voting is biased for establishment candidates at all,” he said. “It is biased against candidates who turn off specific voting blocs, and rewards candidates who have broad appeal.”
In the end, he said the race hinges on the strength of voters’ political feelings.
“It really comes down to — how do voters feel about all the candidates? Who do they like if they can’t have their top preference?” Mayer said.
Though polls close tomorrow evening, finding out the winner could take some time. A preliminary tabulation of the votes is tentatively scheduled for Friday, with a final tabulation expected Saturday.
