Add hotel-occupancy rates to the Arlington County government’s growing list of economic concerns.
Projections for the next 60 days suggest Arlington’s hotel-room usage will be down 15% from a year before and expected hotel revenue down 12%.
“We are going to see some fluctuations,” Arlington Economic Development director Ryan Touhill told County Board members Tuesday, noting that forecasts are actually slightly better than they were a week ago.
The figures are “a little all over the place right now,” Touhill said. “We need to see what happens.”
Between Jan. 1 and March 8, Arlington’s hotels and motels saw slight increases from 2024 rates, with occupancy up 2% and revenue up 10%. But the Trump administration’s chainsaw approach to both federal downsizing and international relations appears to be taking its toll.
Domestic meetings and group sales are seeing cancellations, but “where we’re probably more concerned right now is on the international front,” Touhill said. He cited “rhetoric and proposed policy changes” as scaring away some international travelers.
That could become a major problem by mid-May, as tens of thousands of people from across the globe are expected to descend on the local region for the World Pride DC 2025 festival.
While festival events will occur primarily in the nation’s capital, Arlington officials hope to receive some positive spillover impacts, Touhill said.
The international visitors “will very much help boost our tourism,” he said. “We’re kind of counting on them.”
Board Chair Takis Karantonis said that, from his perspective, the shortage of tourists seems already to have materialized as the local region moves into prime cherry-blossom season.
“This should actually be a peak period, and it doesn’t feel like it,” Karantonis said.
The impact of fewer people in hotels and attending meetings could again threaten the county’s hospitality industry, which took a huge hit during the pandemic but has rebounded.
In calendar-year 2024, Arlington’s overall hotel-occupancy rate stood at 73.6%, up from 70.5% a year before, according to Amadeus Hospitality. The average daily room rate was up 5.2% to $195.97.
Transient-occupancy taxes on hotel/motel rooms are expected to bring in $29 million in the fiscal year starting July 1, based on County Manager Mark Schwartz’s budget proposal.
Visitors also will contribute a portion of the projected $67 million in meals taxes anticipated during the new fiscal year.
At the March 18 briefing, Karantonis said county leaders and staff need to pick their battles and put their resources where they will do the most good to address potential economic impacts.
“If we see the wave coming, knowing what we want to ride and what we want to dodge” will be key, he said.
