Update at 6:35 p.m. — A possible lightning strike caused a minor house fire on the 400 block of N. Bryan Street in Lyon Park, according to scanner traffic.
Update at 6 p.m. — Throughout Arlington nearly 2,500 homes and businesses are without power, according to Dominion’s website. In addition to the outage along Wilson Blvd, there are outages reported in the Arlington Mill and Forest Glen neighborhoods, as well as the Cherrydale, Maywood, Woodmont, Riverwood, and Dover Crystal neighborhoods.
Update at 4:10 p.m. — A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for all of Arlington and D.C.
Earlier: Arlington is again under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Arlington and much of the D.C. area.
Storms are expected later today and forecasters say they could pack quarter-sized hail, 65 mph wind gusts and frequent lightning. The watch is in effect until 9 p.m.
A line of strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning will soon be arriving in Arlington.
The storms have prompted a Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service, for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.
A Flood Watch will be going into effect early Wednesday amid a threat of heavy rainfall tomorrow morning.
After a humid weekend that saw more than 3 inches of rain fall on parts of Arlington, the area got to enjoy a sunny and considerably less sweltering Tuesday. That’s all about to change, though.
A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Arlington amid sustained heavy rainfall.
The warning is in effect until 7:45 p.m. Nearly an inch of rain has fallen in at least one northern Arlington neighborhood with the latest wave of storms, which also prompted a Flood Watch following heavy rain earlier today.
Update at 4:30 p.m. — A Tornado Watch was also just issued for Arlington and much of the area. From the National Weather Service:
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia until 10 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/tKjdMxh3X2
If it feels like the weather forecast has been letting you down lately, a growing number of meteorologists say you may not be imagining it.
They point to a quieter problem playing out well above our heads: the National Weather Service has been launching fewer weather balloons, and the resulting gaps in data may be making forecasts less reliable — especially for severe weather.
Weather balloons carry instruments called radiosondes that measure temperature, humidity, pressure and wind as they rise through the atmosphere. That information is among the most valuable data forecasters have. A recent NASA analysis found balloon readings did more to reduce errors in 24-hour forecasts than any single satellite instrument or aircraft data across the Northern Hemisphere.
The Weather Service began scaling back launches in March 2025, citing staffing shortages, and more than 25 sites are now routinely pushing their morning launches to midday, according to Capital Weather. The agency has lost roughly 600 employees to layoffs and buyouts over the past year, CBS News reported.
Forecasters say the missing morning data is most worrisome on days when severe storms are possible.
Meteorologists and an emergency manager told Politico that absent balloon data likely contributed to a poorly predicted tornado outbreak near Kansas City in April. Many Great Plains offices delayed morning launches to noon that day, NBC News reported, too late for the models that run shortly after 7 a.m. — and a tornado watch went up only about 30 minutes before the first twister.
Arlington-based meteorologist Matthew Cappucci, who recently broke down the issue on Fox 5, didn’t mince words on X:
Have weather forecasts seemed less accurate lately? There's a major contributing factor: nearly half the morning weather balloons in the Lower 48 are "missing."
This is an ongoing crisis that is degrading critical severe weather forecasts that we all rely on. It's having real,… pic.twitter.com/xMajo4MzUs
— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) June 27, 2026
How much any of this affects forecasts here is up for debate. Because weather generally moves west to east, some meteorologists argue a missed launch out West can ripple downstream and dent forecasts on the East Coast. Others counter that balloons are a small slice of the data feeding modern models, and that the biggest effects are likely felt closer to the Plains.
The Weather Service, for its part, disputes that forecasts have suffered. A spokesperson told Capital Weather the agency has seen “no evidence of degradation” in its models, pointing to satellites, aircraft and other sensors that help fill the gaps.
Arlington readers have had reason to keep an eye on the forecast lately, from a snowy winter to tornado watches this spring and the threat of severe storms earlier this week. Whether local forecasts have actually slipped is hard to prove — but some seem to have a gut feeling one way or the other.
So today we’re asking: have you noticed weather forecasts getting less accurate recently?
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Arlington and the entire D.C. area.
Forecasters say severe storms with hail and damaging winds, along with some tornados, are possible later today. The watch is in effect until 10 p.m.
Update at 2:15 p.m. — On top of everything else, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was just issued for the region, through 9 p.m. Severe storms packing damaging winds are possible later today (Saturday), with some Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already in effect west of the immediate D.C. area.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia until 9 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/vJPO2kTTQE
Air quality in Arlington and the D.C. area has reached “very unhealthy” levels amid the incursion of northern wildfire smoke.
The thick, smoky haze is expected to remain in place for much of the day, forecasters say, before clearing Saturday. It has prompted the earlier Code Red air alert to be upgraded to a Code Purple.
Update on 7/17/26 — The Code Red alert has been upgraded to a Code Purple alert due to the thick smoke.
Earlier: The wildfire smoke hanging over the region is expected to get worse on Friday, prompting Arlington to move or cancel all of its outdoor parks and recreation programming for the day.
