School leaders are projecting a gradual decline in student enrollment over the next decade — but they don’t believe it will translate to lower costs.
In total, Arlington Public Schools now projects a 3.7% decrease in enrollment by 2035, even as the number of students in high-risk categories is showing signs of increasing.
A decline in year-over-year student enrollment at Arlington Public Schools has resulted in staffing adjustments at some schools.
The official APS 2025-26 student count of 27,589 is down 311 students — or 1.1% — from a year before, Superintendent Francisco Durán reported to School Board on Thursday.
Excess capacity at elementary schools might someday lead Arlington Public Schools to close facilities — but there aren’t any immediate plans to do this, officials say.
“We are not projecting a need to close any schools at this time,” Board Chair Mary Kadera said in response to a question at last week’s Arlington County Civic Federation meeting.
Already nearly at a record high, student enrollment in Falls Church City Public Schools is expected to grow consistently in coming decades.
With 2,711 students as of Sept. 30, the five-school district is currently just 10 students shy of its record 2,721 students in 2016, according to a recent report to the Virginia Department of Education. The report predicts enrollment will pass the 3,000 mark in 2027, before growing to about 3,250 in 2040 and 3,430 in 2050.
New figures show efforts to reduce absenteeism in Arlington public schools may be bearing fruit.
When Arlington School Board members approved the system’s fiscal 2025 budget in the spring, they set a goal of ultimately reducing chronic absenteeism from the then-current level of 13.5% to less than 8%. In recently updated data, there was a bit of progress on that front.
A mini-baby boom could deliver Arlington Public Schools a slight enrollment bump through 2033, according to the latest 10-year projections.
The report says live births are predicted to increase by 13%, or about 300 babies, through 2028. This modest increase contrasts with a report last year predicting short-term increases followed by declines in the outer years due to declining births.
(Updated at 12 p.m.) An elementary school has become the next flashpoint in discussions of how Arlington Public Schools should use its existing buildings.
Last year, the Nottingham Elementary School community was roiled by a potential plan to close the school and turn the building into a “swing space” to accommodate students whose home schools were under renovation.
Arlington’s private schools say they are still riding a wave of enrollment increases that started early in the pandemic.
More than three years ago now, Covid lockdowns shut down schools, which reverted to distance learning. That fall, however, local private schools affiliated with a church or the Catholic Diocese of Arlington reopened their doors while Arlington Public Schools continued with virtual learning for most students for the better part of the 2020-21 school year.
Two months after Arlington Public Schools floated plans to turn Nottingham Elementary School into a “swing space,” parents returned to the School Board with a message.
The assumptions the school system relied on for this plan are flawed, they said.
A new proposal from Arlington Public Schools (APS) would send Nottingham Elementary students to other schools and use the building to house other students temporarily displaced by school renovations.
Parents of students at Nottingham were notified of the proposal yesterday (Thursday) by APS, ahead of a School Board work session discussing the proposal last night.
The Arlington School Board will vote on boundary changes tomorrow (Thursday) targeting two overcapacity schools in South Arlington.
This fall, Superintendent Francisco Durán launched a “limited” fall 2021 boundary process to relieve overcrowding at Abingdon Elementary School, Gunston Middle School and Wakefield High School.
APS Enrollment Down — “Despite intensive efforts to get them back, Arlington Public Schools has about 4 percent fewer students in class than it did pre-pandemic, according to new figures. Superintendent Francisco Durán on Oct. 14 said the school system’s official count for the 2021-22 school year is 26,911 students, based on enrollment Sept. 30 that will be submitted to state officials as is required by law. That’s down slightly from the 26,932 students reported on hand at the start of classes in August.” [Sun Gazette]
Update on Metro Woes — “While Metro aims to provide service consistent with the announced basic service plan through the rest of the week, customers should anticipate trains every 15-20 minutes on the Red Line and every 30-40 minutes on all other lines to account for any unplanned disruptions. There is currently no capacity to fill unforeseen gaps, which will result in longer wait times. Crews are working as quickly as possible to put more trains into service.” [WMATA]
