The eyes of Virginia soon will be upon Arlington.
At least for those eager to know how the county’s first-in-the-Commonwealth ranked-choice-voting (RCV) general election transpired.
Outside attention may not be focused on the county during election night itself, as there are bigger fish to fry — like the presidential race — that evening. But Liz White, for one, believes that Arlington’s 2024 experience with ranked-choice ultimately will get the attention it deserves.
White is executive director of UpVote Virginia, which in recent years has advocated for a switch to ranked-choice voting. She told ARLnow that advocates, leaders of other Virginia localities and members of the General Assembly all have a vested interest in seeing how things play out.
“I don’t know how many will be specifically watching on Nov. 5 (and the following days), but I’m positive that they will want to look at Arlington’s most recent experience as another Virginia data point on RCV,” White told ARLnow.
Those keeping tabs may come away mildly disappointed, as chances are moderate to high that the ranked-choice process will not be required to determine a winner in the County Board election.
Typically, Democratic candidates in Arlington general-election races score well above the 50% mark, and ranked-choice doesn’t come into play unless no candidate receives a majority of voters’ first-choice selections.
Seeking election are Democrat JD Spain, Sr., Republican Juan Carlos Fierro, independent Madison Granger — who has the backing of the nascent Forward Party — and independent Audrey Clement. They are seeking to succeed Democrat Libby Garvey, who opted against seeking re-election.
Under Arlington’s incarnation of ranked-choice, voters can (but are not required to) rank up to three candidates in the Board race in order of preference.
All other races on the Arlington ballot, and across Virginia, are being held under more traditional winner-take-all rules.
While it’s possible that Fierro, Granger and Clement could combine to deny Spain outright victory, that result would be something of a political shocker — even more so if the process played out and someone other than Spain emerged victorious.
A First Time for Everything
Arlington County Board members in December 2022 authorized using ranked-choice voting for the June 2023 Board Democratic primary, essentially as a pilot program.
Reaction among voters was, and remains, mixed.
“Some like it. Some don’t,” said Gretchen Reinemeyer, Arlington’s director of elections. Her office has been on the front lines in not only implementing the new process, but explaining it to voters.
Turnout for this year’s general election will be far larger than the 2023 and 2024 Democratic primaries, meaning many local voters will encounter RCV for the first time. The most common voter error seen by election-office staff has been ranking the same candidate as their first, second and third choices.
“This doesn’t increase their candidate’s chance of winning,” Reinemeyer told ARLnow. “It’s the same as if they had just ranked the candidate first. Their vote stays with that candidate until the person is eliminated. The second and third choice only come into play after the first-choice candidate is eliminated. If they ranked the same candidate first, second and third, their ballot is immediately exhausted if that candidate is eliminated.”
A month after the June 2023 primary, Board members opted against using ranked-choice for the November 2023 general election, citing concerns that, despite a public-outreach effort, many voters seemed to be caught unaware about the new format.
The decision to revert to winner-take-all in the general election is unlikely to have affected the ultimate outcome — Democratic nominees Maureen Coffey and Susan Cunningham won easily — but it did produce some grumbles among supporters of the other two candidates
Ranked-Choice Made Difference in 2020
In May 2020, a month after the death in office of Board member Erik Gutshall at age 49, Democrats held a quickly assembled, party run nomination caucus to pick a candidate for the special election that would follow in July.
Democratic leaders opted to use the ranked-choice format to make their choice, as they had in most previous party run caucuses over the preceding five years.
In that sprint of a caucus, whose challenges were exacerbated by still-raging Covid and with the pool of voters limited to party leaders, School Board member Barbara Kanninen won the most number of first-ballot votes.
But Kanninen did not receive an absolute majority in the four-candidate race, and ultimately was leapfrogged by Takis Karantonis. Anointed by Democrats, Karantonis went on to win the special election and the ensuing general election — both winner-take-all affairs — and remains in office today.
In the 2023 Democratic primary, Natalie Roy initially was holding her own for one of the two open seats. But she was leapfrogged by Coffey, who was marked as the second and third choice of many voters who initially had supported other candidates who were eliminated.
In the 2024 Democratic primary, Spain held the top vote-getting position from the outset, but it required four rounds for him to receive the requisite majority in the five-candidate race.
Will It Even Be Necessary?
That ranked-choice voting is relevant within Arlington’s Democratic nominating contests, which can attract large fields, is a given. But will the mechanics of ranked-choice even be necessary to determine a winner in this year’s County Board general election?
Historical experience suggests not, with local Democratic candidates often receiving their largest majorities of the four-year cycle due to the high turnout of president-election years.
All odds-on favorite Spain needs to do is garner 50% (plus one) and there will be no need for the ranked-choice machinery to be cranked up.
In the last two presidential-election years, when the seat held by Garvey was the only County Board race on the ballot, she received roughly 71 percent of the vote in each race. Clement, Garvey’s only challenger in 2016 and 2020, picked up the remainder.
In the earlier 2012 general election, Garvey did not fare quite as well, but still dominated. She won 60% of the vote to 26% for Republican Matt Wavro and 13% for Clement. (Vote percentages for Arlington Republican candidates have taken a beating ever since Donald Trump emerged as the face of the GOP.)
Del. Patrick Hope (D-Arlington) is among those who doesn’t expect multiple ranked-choice rounds to be necessary to determine a victor this time. But Hope, who shepherded legislation in the General Assembly allowing Arlington to make the switch, said the exercise will still be beneficial.
“RCV is a good opportunity for voters to get used to having the option to rank candidates,” he told ARLnow. “Of course, some will and some won’t, but I believe if voters are torn between two candidates or more, RCV will give them the opportunity to express that feeling, and most will appreciate having that option.”
Impact Could Be Larger in Special Elections
For now, at least, ranked-choice is unlikely to impact general-election races in Arlington. But should a special election, held sometime other than in conjunction with a November general election, arise, then things might get more interesting.
In the spring of 2012, when a special election was required to fill the term of County Board member Barbara Favola (who had been elected to the state Senate), Garvey received 49.2% of the vote. Republican Mark Kelly garnered 43.5% and Clement took home 7%.
Clement told ARLnow that, all things being equal, ranked-choice voting could have delivered a different final result in that race.
“If the election had been conducted via RCV, most of my votes would have gone to Kelly after the first round,” potentially propelling him to victory, she said.
Looking back on that race, Clement recalled that Republican Kelly harbored some resentment of her being on the ballot and siphoning away votes from his campaign.
Had ranked-choice been in place in 2012, “he likely would have won, and I would have made a friend rather than an enemy,” Clement said.
Political Parties Are Not Playing Along
The Arlington County Democratic Committee and Arlington County Republican Committee are only advising their supporters to back Spain and Fierro, respectively, not offering secondary picks for the ranked-choice ballot.
County GOP chair Matthew Hurtt believes the switch to ranked-choice was a mistake.
“Results show ranked-choice voting disproportionately disenfranchises mail-in-ballot voters, as well as elderly and minority voters,” he told ARLnow. “The process sows confusion and distrust in our election process, as we saw in the Democratic primary for County Board in 2023.”
Arlington County Democratic Committee chair Steve Baker declined to comment on ranked-choice’s potential impact on the 2024 race. In January, the party publicly thanked Arlington leaders for moving to ranked-choice in the general election, saying the change will “give voters a more thorough say in who represents them and to select candidates that more accurately reflect the voters.”
A request to the national Forward Party, which is backing Granger, on its plans for advising voters did not receive a response by this article’s publication. But the party’s website says it does support ranked-choice voting in concept.
“Ranked-choice voting (and similar methods) better captures voters’ true preferences and enables a more dynamic and truly representative democracy — it is the key to unlocking real reform,” the Forward Party website says.
Clement, who has been running almost continuously for more than a decade as a self-described protest candidate, is doing her part in promoting ranked-choice voting.
In an e-mail to supporters, Clement asked them to designate herself as their first choice, Fierro as second and Granger as third. Whatever order they ultimately choose, she recommended voters should avoid including Spain’s name among their picks.
Next Stops for Ranked-Choice in Virginia
What locality might be next to take the ranked-choice plunge? UpVote Virginia’s White told ARLnow there a number of possibilities.
“Albemarle is actively discussing it, Fredericksburg is considering an ordinance, and Fairfax City is discussing RCV at their December meeting,” she said. “Several localities are having conversations at the more grass-roots level.”
Even if one candidate, presumably Spain, wins a majority in Arlington’s first-round voting, White said she believes that result will prove valuable in the broader conversation.
“RCV doesn’t change the will of the electorate, it clarifies it,” she said, acknowledging that the conventional wisdom of a Spain first-round victory could be proved right.
“Bright blue Arlington will likely end up with the Democratic candidate winning outright,” White said.
At the national level, U.S. Rep. Don Beyer (D-Virginia) has introduced legislation calling for ranked-choice congressional elections, but the measure remains stuck in legislative limbo.
County Leaders Say Feedback Will Be Heeded
Even though County Board members last year voted to hold races for their seats using the ranked-choice process in perpetuity, future Boards could always reverse that decision.
Arlington GOP chair Hurtt would like to see that eventuality come to pass.
“Arlington Republicans hope county leaders reconsider this method of election and return to ‘one man, one vote,’ which is a foundational principle of our democratic process,” he said.
County officials will be collecting community feedback to gauge public perceptions of the process change. Individuals can participate in an online survey, write to [email protected] or call 703-228-3130 through Nov. 19 to submit comments.
“Feedback will be reviewed and presented to the Board for consideration as it determines whether to use RCV in future County Board elections,” county officials said.
