This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How common is it for a home sale to fall through once it’s under contract?

Answer: According to a recent study, 70% of sellers fear that buyers will back out of the deal before it closes. How often do real estate transactions actually fall apart?

Arlington, Northern VA Buyers Are Committed

Since 2019, less than 10% of real estate contracts fell through in Arlington, compared to 26.3% in Prince George’s County.

Just 11.4% of Northern VA real estate contracts didn’t make it to closing, as opposed to 13.8% in Montgomery County MD and 15.2% in Washington DC.

Spring Buyers Are More Committed

Homes that go under contract during the spring market are more likely to close than those that sell later in the year.

In Northern VA, just 9.6% of homes that go under contract in April fall through, but December contracts fall through 12.8% of the time; 12% more than average.

This pattern of fall-through rates follows a similar pattern of best and worst times to go to market for sellers. February through May often produce the best results for sellers in speed and price metrics, it also gives sellers the best chance at getting to the closing table.

Seasonal fall-through rates across the entire DMV market follow a similar trend as Northern VA, but the average fall-through rate increases 4-5% when you include DC and Maryland suburbs. (more…)