This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: How did the Arlington and Northern VA housing market perform in the first quarter?
Answer: Remember two months ago when social media and various media outlets announced the DC area housing market was collapsing? I wrote at length why they were wrong then (link) and through the first quarter of 2025, they’re still wrong. There’s no doubt that the market is fragile and more favorable for buyers than it’s been in a while, but there is nothing in the data or my experience in the market to indicate anything extreme is happening.
The Q1 Market Shift is Significant
There is no doubt that we are seeing significant market shifts across the region – we can feel it within the industry and we can see it in the data (illustrated below). Within our team, we see the fragility of the market in real-time with some homes getting multiple offers and six figure escalations and others cutting prices after unexpected days on market, offering buyer incentives to put a deal together.
The two charts below show the year-over-year (YoY) quarterly change in the number of homes for sale in Northern VA and Arlington, over the last ten years. Q1 2025 was the largest YoY quarterly increase in the past decade and 5th largest for Arlington. The four quarters with a higher YoY quarterly increase in Arlington were driven purely by the historical surge of condos for sale in 2020 and 2021 in Arlington.


This is NOT a Fire Sale
One of the more ridiculous storylines floating around when DOGE started cutting federal jobs and spending was that everybody was putting their home up for sale and fleeing the area. That was objectively false then and it remains false as we collect more data.
According to Redfin’s Data Center for all US Metro areas, new listing volume in Q1 2025 was up 5.2% nationwide. Arlington County is up 5.5%, Fairfax County is up 8.3%, and Loudoun County is up 21.4%. I suspect that the higher increase in Loudoun is correlated to new Return-to-Office mandates, causing more homeowners to sell to shorten their commute.
Keep in mind that these YoY increases are coming from years if massive drops in new listing activity, so we are still seeing a small number of homes coming to market relative to the ten-year average. New listing activity in Loudoun County needed to increase by 76.1% YoY in Q1 2025 to match the listing activity from Q1 2018.










