This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at[email protected].
Question: How has the Arlington single-family home market performed in the first half of 2026?
Answer: Arlington’s single-family detached (SFD) market got busier and more competitive in the first half of 2026, yet prices increased at their slowest pace since 2023.
More Competition, Modest Appreciation (Resale Market)
Note: this data is for resales of single-family detached (SFD) homes; I have a separate analysis of the new construction market further down.
The average and median price increased 3.5% and 1.9%, respectively
Over the past five years, the average and median price increased 13.9% and 11.1%, respectively
The average and median price of a home increased to $1.44M and $1.299M, respectively
Demand and competition rose to the highest levels since 2022, with 66% of homes selling within the first ten days on market and 68% of homes selling at or above the original asking price
The average buyer paid 1.3% more than the original asking price, compared to 2025 when the average buyer paid 0.3% less than the original asking price
Buyers of homes that went under contract within the first week on market paid an average of 4.7% over the asking price
Dig Deeper: Performance Varied by Size, Price Point
The appreciation gap between the average price (3.5%) and median price (1.9%) matters. The average is more sensitive to expensive sales. In 2026, 15.7% of closed resales sold for $2M or more, up from 12.7% in 2025. At the other end of the market, only 21.7% sold below $1M, down from 24.4%. That shift toward higher-priced homes helped lift the average faster than the median.
Average and median prices are useful, but neither tells us whether gains were shared evenly across the market. To test that, I divided the closed resale market into four sold-price quartiles for each year. Each quartile represents one-fourth of that year’s sales, from the least expensive 25% to the most expensive 25%. (more…)
Biking past political signs in Courthouse (courtesy George Brazier)
Arlington Firm Drills Into Md. — Arlington-based Dandelion Energy is scouting a Rockville site for a field office as new state incentives fuel demand for its residential geothermal systems in Virginia and Maryland. “We have enough scale now that we’re staffing permanent field leadership here, and transitioning to all permanent local crews,” CEO Dan Yates said. On Tuesday, Maryland awarded the company $1.3 million to bring systems to 129 homes. [WBJ]
Legal Weed on the Way — Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) last week signed legislation creating Virginia’s recreational cannabis marketplace, with retail sales set to begin July 1, 2027. “For years, Virginians have crossed into D.C. and Maryland to buy legal marijuana. That changes next July, reshuffling where customers, tax dollars and businesses flow across the region.” [Axios]
DOGE Ends, Hiring Resumes — July 4 marked the end of the Department of Government Efficiency, and many federal agencies are now hiring again after more than 260,000 workers left, with effects felt acutely across the D.C. region. The government posted over 104,000 jobs in the first five months of this year, up from 68,900 in the prior five months. “In a lot of places, the administration is just trying to keep the lights on with this rehiring,” said NOTUS reporter Natalie Alms. [WAMU]
Potomac Fish Kill — Thousands of dead and dying fish turned up along a several-mile stretch of the Potomac River in Montgomery County, Md., upstream from the sewage pipe rupture that sent millions of gallons of raw waste into the river in January. The Maryland Department of the Environment says the die-off is not connected to that rupture and found no evidence of pollution, pointing instead to water temperatures in the mid-90s. The event began Friday and had subsided by Sunday. [Fox 5]
It’s Wednesday — Look for a mostly cloudy day with a high near 83 and isolated rain showers possible before 2 p.m. Winds will be light out of the southeast around 5 mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight after 2 a.m., with a low around 71. [NWS]
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Superintendent Francisco Durán signs new contract (courtesy Arlington Public Schools)
School Board members have voted to extend Superintendent Francisco Durán’s contract by four years, to June 30, 2030.
“Thank you for your trust, your partnership and your steadfast commitment to our students,” Durán said in remarks directed to School Board members yesterday (Tuesday). “Public education is built on that collaboration.”‘
S. Four Mile Run Drive at the entrance to the DMV (via Google Maps)
Today (Wednesday) is the last day to submit feedback on a proposed revamp of a stretch of S. Four Mile Run Drive.
The concept design, which county staff have been working on since fall 2023, concerns a length of the road between S. George Mason Drive and S. Walter Reed Drive. It would reduce the width of painted medians and make vehicle lanes narrower in many places, in addition to adding parking lanes.
Expect a 30% chance of showers mainly before 8 a.m., with patchy fog until 10 a.m., and mostly cloudy skies. The high will be near 82°F with a northeast wind at 3 to 6 mph. Wednesday night, showers and thunderstorms are likely after 2 a.m. with a 70% chance of precipitation. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, with a low around 71°F and a south wind at 3 to 5 mph. Rainfall will generally be less than a tenth of an inch, except in thunderstorms where it may be higher. See more from Weather.gov.
💡 Quote of the Day
“Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful.” – Albert Schweitzer
Thanks for reading! If you have something to say about an issue of local note not covered today, feel free to post it as a letter to the editor on our new forum.
Arlington police are investigating a series of attacks with a BB gun or pellet gun in recent days.
Two of the incidents damaged windows, and another sent a victim to the hospital for “serious, non-life threatening injuries,” according to preliminary incident reports from the Arlington County Police Department.