column

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How has the rental market performed so far in 2025?

If you enjoy reading my columns, I would appreciate your vote for top real estate agent in Arlington Magazine’s “Best Of Arlington 2026” poll. Use this link to vote and don’t forget to include your other favorite local businesses and service providers. These recognitions mean a lot for local businesses.

Rental Prices Across Arlington Continue Higher

Local job uncertainty and economic headwinds were no match for rental prices in Arlington so far in 2025, with the average price of renting an apartment (condo), townhouse/duplex, and detached home all up and competition high across all three property types.

Over the past five years, the average rent price in Arlington is up 27.3% across all property types and 25.2% on a price per square foot basis. So far in 2025, the average price of all rentals is up 1.2%, but the average price per square foot is up 6.9%, which is likely a better reflection of actual rental price increases in 2025.

You can see my mid-year analysis on the for sale market for detached homes and condos, here and here.

Highlights and Data Table

Here are some highlights from the data table (keep in mind that 2021-2024 includes 12 months of data, but 2025 is just 7 months of data):

• The average rent for an apartment (condo) is up 5.9% compared to last year and up 29.6% over the past five years
• The average rent for a detached home is up 2.1% compared to last year and up 23.4% over the past five years
• The average rent for a townhouse/duplex is up 2% compared to last year and up 22.8% over the past five years
• The five year increase in average rent for apartments (condos) and detached homes is much higher than the increase in average price to purchase a condo (6%) and detached home (15.5%) over the past five years
• While the average price of renting in North Arlington is about 16% higher than is South Arlington, the rate of annual rent growth is similar across both regions of the county
• Renting a detached home or townhouse/duplex was moderately more competitive than renting an apartment (condo), with nearly 50% of detached and townhouse/duplex properties renting within ten days on market, compared to just over one third of apartments

About the Data

The data above is rental data from the MLS in Arlington over the last five years. Note that very few commercial apartment buildings list in the MLS so this data is limited to non-commercially owned rentals (for apartments, that is mostly individually owned condos).

Further, it’s difficult to say what percentage of non-commercially owned properties go through the MLS for rent but I would guess that it’s about half of rented apartments (condos), but likely a majority if detached and townhouse properties. Despite the limited data set, we still have more than enough information available through the MLS to generate outputs that represent the true rental market.

Upcoming (pre-market) ERG Listings, Details and Additional Listings Available by Request

• Falls Church – 5BR/3BA/2,170 sqft – Detached Single Family (1950) – Bolling Rd Falls Church VA 22042
• Falls Church City – 4BR/4.5BA/3,000+ sqft – End-unit townhouse (1995) – Rees Pl Falls Church VA 22046
• Arlington Ridge/Aurora Hills – 3BR/2.5BA/2,450sqft – Detached Single Family (1961) – S Grove St Arlington VA 22202
• Yorktown – 6BR/6.5BA/6,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – N Greencastle St Arlington VA 22207
• Rosslyn – 2BR+den/2.5BA/2,000+ sqft – Condo (2021) – 1781 N Pierce St Arlington VA 22209

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

TL;DR Video Summary (2:42):

Question: How has the Arlington condo market performed in the first half of 2025?

Answer: The condo market is more susceptible to downturns in the housing market because condo buyers can almost always find a suitable alternative by renting an apartment, if buying loses its appeal. With high interest rates and uncertain local economic conditions in the first half of 2025, the Arlington condo market suffered a loss in value, unlike the detached single-family market, and is having one of its worse years in the past two decades.

Prices and Competition Down in the First Half

Let’s look at the performance of Arlington’s condo market in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of the previous four years:

• The average price of a condo fell by 10%, to just over $508,500, and the average $/SqFt fell by 4%
• The median price of a condo fell by 7.5%, to $439,000
• Demand fell sharply with just 39% of condos selling within the first ten days on market and just 39% selling for at or above the asking price
• After significant price gains in 2024, seller optimism was high heading into 2025 and the initial asking prices reflected that. Low demand led to substantial discounts off the initial asking price, with condos selling for an average of 5.3% below the original ask, compared to about 1% each if the past four years.
• Most of the losses seem to come from the two-bedroom condo market, where the average price dropped by 7%, compared to a 1% drop in the one-bedroom market

(more…)

This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How has the Arlington single-family housing market performed in the first half of 2025?

Answer: Despite significant headwinds from DOGE cuts to Federal spending and workforce and a sluggish national housing market, prices of Arlington’s detached single-family homes continued their upward climb in the first half of 2025, compared to the first half of 2024, albeit at a slower pace and with much less competition.

Prices Up, Competition Down in the First Half

Let’s look at the performance of Arlington’s detached single-family home (SFH) market in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of the previous four years (new construction sales not included in the data set):

• The average and median price of a SFH increased by 3.2% and 4% year-over-year, respectively
• Over the past five years, the average and median price of a SFH in the first half of the year increased by 15.5% and 17.9%, respectively
• The average SFH sold for more than $1,435,000, including new construction, and over $1,380,000 without new construction sales
• The median home price is $1.3M, including new construction, and $1,275,000 without new construction sales
• Demand and competition in the first half of 2025 fell to its lowest levels since the first half of 2020 (COVID spring):
  • only 54% of homes selling within the first ten days on market and just 55% of homes selling for at or above the asking prices, dropping from an average of 65% and 69% the previous four years
  • the average home sold for 0.3% below the original asking price, the first time the average home sold for below the original asking price in the first half of the year since 2020
• Homes that went under contract within the first ten days sold for an average of 2.5% over the asking price, down from 3.1% last year
• Just 25% of homes sold for less than $1M

Looking Forward

The rosy picture painted by the strong numbers detailed above hide a less optimistic truth. The dataset above accounts only for the homes that have sold, but inventory is building with homes struggling to sell and many are reducing their asking price. While the average Arlington detached home price increased 3.2% year-over-year, the average Arlington detached home listed for sale in Q2 was listed for 13% less than in 2024.

As these sellers run out of patience or experience financial pressure to sell, they may be forced to accept prices they previously would not have consider and I wouldn’t be surprised if the second half of 2025 tells a different story of home values than the first half.

With the inventory of detached homes in Arlington up 54.5% year-over-year in June and the second half of the year traditionally a better time for buyers than the first half, expect to see buyers with more negotiating leverage than they’ve had in years, through the end of 2025.

How the Data is Organized

For my mid-year reviews, I like to compare the first half of the year to the first half of prior years, rather than comparing the first half of the current year to the full year in prior years. We tend to see a stronger market (higher demand, more competition) in the first half of the year than the second half, so this approach gives us a better apples-to-apples comparison.

The data is organized by homes that went under contract in the first half of the year because it’s more reflective of actual buying activity during that period; as opposed to looking at homes that closed in the first half of the year, but may have gone under contract many months prior during different market conditions. I also use “net sold” price, which factors in any seller credits to a buyer, instead of just the standard sold price.

This year I removed new construction sales from the data (I comment on it separately) because it was incorrectly skewing the outcomes of the data.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

Upcoming (pre-market) ERG Listings, Details and Additional Listings Available by Request

• Falls Church City – 4BR/4.5BA/3,000+ sqft – End-unit townhouse (1995) – Rees Pl Falls Church VA 22046
• Highland Park/Overlee Knolls – 6BR/5.5BA/5,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2025) – 22^nd Rd N Arlington VA 22205
• Arlington Ridge/Aurora Hills – 3BR/2.5BA/2,450sqft – Detached Single Family (1961) – S Grove St Arlington VA 22202
• Yorktown – 6BR/6.5BA/6,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – N Greencastle St Arlington VA 22207

Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.