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This regularly scheduled sponsored column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at Eli@
Eli and his team believe that your real estate needs should be managed by advisors, not salespeople. Their mission is to guide, educate, and advocate for their clients through real advice, hands-on support, and personalized service.
Question: I have heard that inventory is building and the market is starting to favor buyers. Is that accurate?
Answer: I have preached for years the importance of caution and care when applying real estate data to your own decision-making. National real estate data is rarely useful, regional real estate data is sometimes useful, and even local data can be full of misleading conclusions.
It’s quite likely you’ve started to hear news and see data showing significant inventory build-up and markets shifting to favor buyers. We have seen modest market shifts in Northern Virginia, but nothing like what other regions of the country are experiencing, which is the source of most of the newsworthy reports you may see.
I recently came across this fantastic chart illustrating how housing market conditions are in different regions of the country. The bigger the green bar, the more favorable the market is for sellers, the smaller it is, the more favorable the market is for buyers.

Inventory Levels and Demand Drive Price Momentum
The green bars above illustrate demand levels against inventory and provides a good indication of how prices might react in the coming months/year, the charts below show how inventory levels have changed by state over the past 12 months and five years (pre-pandemic levels) and are also a good indicator of future price movement.
- Sun Belt and Mountain West markets are seeing a faster return to pre-pandemic inventory levels
- Many of the markets seeing the biggest buyer-favorable swings (more inventory) saw greater home price growth during the pandemic housing boom
- Northeast and Midwest markets have lower levels of homebuilding (new supply)

It’s Good to be in the DMV
Attom Data released a report on Sept. 6th analyzing 589 counties to determine the risk of a housing downturn based on:
- % of homes facing possible foreclosure
- underwater mortgages
- % of income to buy
- median sales price
- local unemployment rates
The metropolitan areas around New York City, NY, Chicago, IL, as well as broad stretches of California, the Southwest, and Florida are considered most vulnerable to a housing downturn.
Virginia had eight of the least-at-risk jurisdictions, including Arlington County, City of Alexandria, Fairfax County and Loudoun County. This is the story of real estate ownership in the greater D.C. Metro area — we may lagged other regions in appreciation during the pandemic boom, but we can sleep comfortably now as many markets are facing a risky future.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.












